Following up: Reactions to Liam Hendriks (and his contract)

ANAHEIM, CA - JUNE 29: Oakland Athletics pitcher Liam Hendriks (16) in action during the eighth inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels played on June 29, 2019 at Angel Stadium of Anaheim in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

I’m old enough to remember when four-year contracts for relievers were universally panned. Then again, the White Sox’s first four-year contract for a free agent pitcher went to Scott Linebrink, who turned out to be the poster boy for avoiding such deals.

The thinking has shifted somewhat, partially because more teams require more good relievers than before, so one big bullpen investment becomes harder to avoid. There’s also less perceived volatility, at least at the top of the ranks. Pitchers have new ways to get good and stay good into their 30s, front offices have a better idea of how to support it, and outsiders get a clearer window into the entire process.

So that’s how in the year 2021, the White Sox’s four-year, $54 million signing of All-Star closer Liam Hendriks was met with universal acceptance. Here’s Craig Edwards from FanGraphs:

Hendriks is not most relievers. A few years ago, Jeff Sullivan took a look at good relievers and how sustainable their performance is long-term and found that their production held up at a comparable rate to position players. Going back even further, I found that elite relievers like Hendriks with projections in the win and a half range or higher were much more likely to reach those numbers than the merely good relievers. There’s always going to be risk associated with any player, but Hendriks is the type of pitcher worth splurging on.

While the setup of Hendriks’ contract is a bit odd, it essentially takes the annual market value for an elite reliever ($18 million) and spreads it out over four years (or longer in smaller chunks if Hendriks’ play declines). Given his talent and results the last few seasons, paying a small premium over the going rate for last year’s best reliever is a pretty good deal for the White Sox, even if it is above expectations from earlier this winter. Hindsight is 20/20, but it certainly seems elite players are still going to be paid at market rates or something close to it, even if they haven’t signed yet. While Hendriks might not bring the same value as Trevor Bauer, George Springer, or J.T. Realmuto, he’s certainly a top-level player at his position and received a contract in line with that level of play.

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Regarding the unusual structure of Hendriks’ contract to which Edwards alluded — Hendriks’ team option and buyout are for the same amount of $15 million — Ken Rosenthal said it didn’t just catch fans off guard. In his notebook, he said it left the baseball industry “buzzing and somewhat confused.”

While it doesn’t seem like it’s in the White Sox’s interest to potentially pay somebody so much to go away, Rosenthal says it has luxury tax implications that might be picked up by other teams. Because Hendriks is guaranteed $54 million and three years, his salary counts as $18 million toward the luxury tax limit over the next three years. Whether the White Sox keep Hendriks or bid him, as they say in Australia, “goodbye,” his salary will count as $0 for luxury tax accounting in 2024. It’s alien seeing “White Sox” and “luxury tax” in the same article, much less paragraph, but if nothing else, it gives Rick Hahn something to point to if he once again says “the money will be spent” in “the not-too-distant future.”

Rosenthal also includes other key details about Hendriks’ contract:

The contract includes one other twist: The option will become guaranteed if Hendriks is traded at any point during the deal. The agreement, which is pending a physical, grants Hendriks complete no-trade protection in the first year, a 10-team no-trade list in the second and a five-team no-trade list in the third.

PERTINENT: With Liam Hendriks, White Sox choose to go big at closer

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One of the indirect benefits of a big bullpen signing is residual attention on the remainder of the corps. At least it’s an indirect benefit if the previous bullpen had some depth to it. If Hendriks signed with the Phillies, it’d be a cause to rubberneck. With the White Sox, who already had a number of young arms coming off promising performances, they can share a little bit of the spotlight without too much being asked of them.

Mike Petriello used the occasion of the Hendriks signing to focus on the other White Sox relievers who have emerged as go-to guys for the White Sox over the last two seasons. Garrett Crochet’s appeal is obvious, but he gives Aaron Bummer and Codi Heuer high marks for their ability to get grounders and strikeouts at 97 or above, Evan Marshall credit for his ability to miss the barrel, and Matt Foster a nod for his rising fastball, even if it isn’t Hendriks-good.

PODCAST: Hello, Liam Hendriks

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With Hendriks in the fold, ESPN’s Jeff Passan sees the White Sox as the team to beat in the American League right now. It’s a bold claim, although it’s grounded in some reality. On the South Side, Hahn has added Hendriks, Lance Lynn and Adam Eaton to a team that was on a 94-win pace, and all three of those players figure to be upgrades on weak spots to varying degrees.

But it’s also a claim that reflects the stasis around the league. While the White Sox can point to a bolstered roster, they have no company among the other 14 teams. Say what you will about Eaton — and boy howdy, we did — but he’d probably counts as the best addition among the other American League contender, unless you’re a big fan of Robbie Ray.

(Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

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roke1960

Give Jerry and Hahn some credit. They outbid the rest of baseball on one of the first free agent signings who had multiple teams interested in his services. Without knowing officially if the NL will have a DH, the bats that the Sox would be interested in are probably waiting until that issue is resolved. I think they still have a good chance of getting one of those guys and then adding a 5th starter. Even though it won’t be Bauer/Springer, Rick would then have upgraded 5 positions of need. I’d call that a pretty good winter.

knoxfire30

My grade is up to a C+, they can get me to a B with the additions of a dh and vet sp. They refuse to sit at the big kid table when it comes to top tier free agents so I just dont see a scenario where they can earn an A.

I am very excited for Hendriks on the back end and as you rightly point out this is a situation where they outbid other teams and I believe I heard the Astros actually made a similar offer and the sox won out so that deserves some kudos.

roke1960

Yeah, unless they sign Bauer or Springer, they won’t get an A. And so far, all of the other contenders in the AL are D or F.

Eagle Bones

I would have given them some credit for another Wheeler-like outcome (as frustrating as that would have been) where they made a serious aggressive bid, but yeah without even making a real effort on either of those two, it’s hard to give them that good of a grade.

Last edited 3 years ago by Eagle Bones
dwjm3

Yup, completely agree

jhomeslice

I totally agree, C+ at best, C- for me. Prior to Hendricks, they had not committed a single dollar this offseason to 2022 or beyond. Contrast to what the Padres are doing, securing 3 core pieces for multiple years, it is clear what a team that really wants to win looks like. To be fair the Sox have improved certainly for 2021, but I said before the offseason that I would consider anything less than getting Springer or Bauer a failure, and I’m still in that camp. They are better off than if they did not sign a closer, but it was not an area of weakness in 2020, and had nothing to do with why they lost to the A’s. In 2019 and 2020, Colome blew a total of 4 saves. Hendricks blew 7 in 2019 in only 1/2 a season, and the Sox knocked him out of game 2 of the playoffs. I don’t see it as much of an improvement in the end, even if Hendricks looks more impressive. Whether it will be worth the money remains to be seen.

Maybe I’m just a glass half full guy because they have only won once in my lifetime, but I see this as a very good team that could be totally great, for multiple years, if they ponied up to the big kid table as you said and added a piece like Springer or Bauer. Since Hendricks is the only player who they have added this offseason who will be with the team beyond 2021, I am not impressed. With nearly 50 million coming off the books from McCann, Encarnacion, Gio, Mazara, Cishek, Rodon, Colome, I think this offseason is laughable in terms of the narrative “the money will be spent”. The Padres are now in the top 5 payroll in MLB. That’s a team that is “All In”. It the Sox truly were, they would have a great chance to win for multiple years. 2021 may be their best chance, given that they will be looking for a starting pitcher and RF after the season, again. Maybe they get a turn of a friendly card and Kopech is outstanding, giving them a lot better shot than people like myself believe, beyond just 2021. They are going to need something like that to work out in their favor, him or Cease, my opinion.

texag10

I’ll say this: It’s pretty telling that the Padres have had to go and acquire such a large portion of their roster from outside the organization. For a team that has been rebuilding, they aren’t really all that homegrown.

jhomeslice

Two of the Sox top 3 starters are Keuchel and Lynn, neither of whom are home grown…. just saying. I would be quite happy if the Sox were doing what the Padres were, homegrown or not. It seems that by being willing to eat Darvish’s contract, they were able to get 3 years of him, arguably a better pitcher than Lynn, without having to give the Cubs a single prospect as good as Dunning. I would have been very impressed by such a move, not only to get a SP for more than a year, but to avoid giving up Dunning in exchange for a bigger contract than Lynn.

texag10

I’m all for adding another bat but I don’t see them adding another pitcher. For better or worse, they believe in Cease and Lopez and Kopech will theoretically be waiting in the wings in case of injury. I’d love to see them grab Kluber to be the 4th starter but I don’t get the impression they want to bump their young guys at this point in time, especially when they are about to be in the best shape of their life.

roke1960

I read somewhere yesterday that plenty of teams are interested in Heuer. I wonder if they have considered a trade of Heuer/Madrigal/Steiver or something like that package for Sonny Gray/Castillo/Brandon Woodruff, a controllable, relatively cheap starter. Then they would have a rotation of that guy at #4 and Cease at #5. Then Lopez can replace Heuer in the pen. In short spurts, he could throw 100 also. Then sign LaStella to replace Madrigal. They would arguably have one of the top 5 rotations in the majors.

texag10

Brandon Woodruff plays for the Brewers so that would be impressive and I highly doubt Heuer/Madrigal/Stiever is enough for (what I assume you meant as) Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo, two cheap, high quality starting pitchers. I also have absolutely no faith in Lopez being any kind of useful out of the bullpen.

roke1960

What do you think it would take to get Gray or Castillo? I’m not very good at matching up prospects for major league players- maybe add Dahlquist or Thompson? Plus, I think most people have thought Lopez is best suited for the pen, and with the adjustments Katz is making, I think he could be an effective weapon back there.

texag10

So for Sonny you’re probably looking at a deal value wise that’s equivalent to the Lynn deal. Gray isn’t as good as Lynn but has more control. Castillo is a 3+ fWAR that hasn’t even hit arbitration yet. We can’t afford him.

roke1960

I just meant for one of those three pitchers.

jhomeslice

I don’t like the idea of trading Heuer. Hendricks only replaced Colome, he did not add bullpen depth year over year. As long as Cordero is on the roster, I do not think they should consider trading any of their better relievers. You can never have too much bullpen depth, especially if there are any injuries. I hope Lopez can contribute out of the pen. He has no value as a starter, I am sure he is not in their rotation plans for 2021 no matter what he does in the spring, as long as Cease and Kopech are healthy. What to do with Crochet will be interesting, if they see him as a long term starter or not. I love him as a late inning guy, he might wind up the best setup guy in MLB.

As Cirensica

They must add another pitcher. We can’t go into the season with Giolito-Keuchel-Lynn-Cease-????

This team needs depth beyond ReyLo. We need another Gio Gonzalez (Not him actually) type of 1 year deal. A Quintana reunion would be nice.

texag10

I don’t disagree, I just don’t think they will or if they do it’ll be a Detweiler type they can stash in Charlotte

Root Cause

I have long said I would be supportive so long as they put out players who could win on any given day. And I think they have done that.

Over the winter, the question was, “Will we be contenders or pretenders?” If our FO could have decided to nothing more and it could be argued that it was enough as other teams have been static or regressed. This addition is making me a believer that they are trying.

The last piece of this winter’s puzzle (for me) is whether they will fill other holes to get the lead that makes adding Hendricks make sense. It would not surprise me to see them add Cespedes and Vera and call it for now. I’d like some insurance for 2021 but I wouldn’t complain if this happens.

Last edited 3 years ago by Root Cause
dongutteridge

It’s nice that the Sox signed the best relief pitcher available. It’s not how I would have spent the money but that’s okay. What the team needs now more than anything is 1 more good veteran starting pitcher. If they do nothing more than that they should be able to go deep into the playoffs. I would give them an A for that if they signed say, a Jake Odorrizi or similar.

The player that I would love the Sox to sign is George Springer. I don’t expect it and won’t fault the Sox for not doing it due to the economic climate and uncertainty right now. The lineup is definitely good enough, as is.

Last edited 3 years ago by dongutteridge
MrStealYoBase

Sox are neck-and-neck with the Yankees for best projected reliever WAR while spending $16M to the Yankees ~$43M on RP.

They are spending half as much as they did on Colome + Herrera + Cishek. And Hendriks makes them so much better than that group did.

If they don’t upgrade other positions in a meaningful way it’s not because they spent too much on Hendriks.

Trooper Galactus

They’re spending $17 million on just Hendriks, Marshall, and Bummer next season. Their bullpen is definitely excellent on a per dollar basis, but it’s gonna cost more like $23-25 million, especially if you take the buyouts for Cishek and Herrera into account.

MrStealYoBase

Yeah I should have clarified that only includes free agent + arb contracts. It’s still a lot less money than last year and other teams.

Trooper Galactus

For a team that operates on a mid-market budget, the amount of dead money in the White Sox’s bullpen last year was staggering.

Milky✌️

I… completely forgot Kelvin Herrera was on the team last year. And that the Cubs picked him up.

texag10

Same, and that’s why I’m always terrible at the Sporcle quizzes.

asinwreck

You both should feel fortunate to forget 2020 Kelvin Herrera. Imagine how it would be to carry memories of George Foster’s White Sox career around with you thirty years later.

texag10

I mean, I also forget Addison Reed pitched for the Sox and I was at that Seattle Disaster. I think I’m just really good at blocking out painful memories.

peanutsNcrackerjack

I’d be careful to set a grade for the White Sox off-season until all the FA activity is over. The Sox appear to be making progress vis-a-vis the rest of the AL, but Yankees, Twins, etc. have yet to make their moves. Sox are projected only slightly ahead of these teams, with most of the Sox moves completed.

metasox

It isn’t clear to me if guys will be signing soon or are even being pursued, or if we are in something of a standstill until more is known about how the virus affects the season and fan attendance revenue