I'm old enough to remember when four-year contracts for relievers were universally panned. Then again, the White Sox's first four-year contract for a free agent pitcher went to Scott Linebrink, who turned out to be the poster boy for avoiding such deals.
The thinking has shifted somewhat, partially because more teams require more good relievers than before, so one big bullpen investment becomes harder to avoid. There's also less perceived volatility, at least at the top of the ranks. Pitchers have new ways to get good and stay good into their 30s, front offices have a better idea of how to support it, and outsiders get a clearer window into the entire process.
So that's how in the year 2021, the White Sox's four-year, $54 million signing of All-Star closer Liam Hendriks was met with universal acceptance. Here's Craig Edwards from FanGraphs:
Hendriks is not most relievers. A few years ago, Jeff Sullivan took a look at good relievers and how sustainable their performance is long-term and found that their production held up at a comparable rate to position players. Going back even further, I found that elite relievers like Hendriks with projections in the win and a half range or higher were much more likely to reach those numbers than the merely good relievers. There’s always going to be risk associated with any player, but Hendriks is the type of pitcher worth splurging on.
While the setup of Hendriks’ contract is a bit odd, it essentially takes the annual market value for an elite reliever ($18 million) and spreads it out over four years (or longer in smaller chunks if Hendriks’ play declines). Given his talent and results the last few seasons, paying a small premium over the going rate for last year’s best reliever is a pretty good deal for the White Sox, even if it is above expectations from earlier this winter. Hindsight is 20/20, but it certainly seems elite players are still going to be paid at market rates or something close to it, even if they haven’t signed yet. While Hendriks might not bring the same value as Trevor Bauer, George Springer, or J.T. Realmuto, he’s certainly a top-level player at his position and received a contract in line with that level of play.
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Regarding the unusual structure of Hendriks' contract to which Edwards alluded -- Hendriks' team option and buyout are for the same amount of $15 million -- Ken Rosenthal said it didn't just catch fans off guard. In his notebook, he said it left the baseball industry "buzzing and somewhat confused."
While it doesn't seem like it's in the White Sox's interest to potentially pay somebody so much to go away, Rosenthal says it has luxury tax implications that might be picked up by other teams. Because Hendriks is guaranteed $54 million and three years, his salary counts as $18 million toward the luxury tax limit over the next three years. Whether the White Sox keep Hendriks or bid him, as they say in Australia, "goodbye," his salary will count as $0 for luxury tax accounting in 2024. It's alien seeing "White Sox" and "luxury tax" in the same article, much less paragraph, but if nothing else, it gives Rick Hahn something to point to if he once again says "the money will be spent" in "the not-too-distant future."
Rosenthal also includes other key details about Hendriks' contract:
The contract includes one other twist: The option will become guaranteed if Hendriks is traded at any point during the deal. The agreement, which is pending a physical, grants Hendriks complete no-trade protection in the first year, a 10-team no-trade list in the second and a five-team no-trade list in the third.
PERTINENT: With Liam Hendriks, White Sox choose to go big at closer
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One of the indirect benefits of a big bullpen signing is residual attention on the remainder of the corps. At least it's an indirect benefit if the previous bullpen had some depth to it. If Hendriks signed with the Phillies, it'd be a cause to rubberneck. With the White Sox, who already had a number of young arms coming off promising performances, they can share a little bit of the spotlight without too much being asked of them.
Mike Petriello used the occasion of the Hendriks signing to focus on the other White Sox relievers who have emerged as go-to guys for the White Sox over the last two seasons. Garrett Crochet's appeal is obvious, but he gives Aaron Bummer and Codi Heuer high marks for their ability to get grounders and strikeouts at 97 or above, Evan Marshall credit for his ability to miss the barrel, and Matt Foster a nod for his rising fastball, even if it isn't Hendriks-good.
PODCAST: Hello, Liam Hendriks
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With Hendriks in the fold, ESPN's Jeff Passan sees the White Sox as the team to beat in the American League right now. It's a bold claim, although it's grounded in some reality. On the South Side, Hahn has added Hendriks, Lance Lynn and Adam Eaton to a team that was on a 94-win pace, and all three of those players figure to be upgrades on weak spots to varying degrees.
But it's also a claim that reflects the stasis around the league. While the White Sox can point to a bolstered roster, they have no company among the other 14 teams. Say what you will about Eaton -- and boy howdy, we did -- but he'd probably counts as the best addition among the other American League contender, unless you're a big fan of Robbie Ray.
(Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)
