Back when compiling the offseason calendar, I wondered if Eloy Jiménez would steal any first-place votes for Rookie of the Year from Yordan Álvarez.
I'm gonna guess we can call that a "no," because it turns out Jiménez didn't even finish in the top 3 for Rookie of the Year voting.
When the Baseball Writers Association of America released the finalists for the major season awards this week, Jiménez was nowhere to be seen:
The responses to this tweet include many GIFs of Jiménez's celebrated face acting, and it's understandable. I more or less assumed Jiménez would finish as a finalist due to his name recognition, strong counting stats and decent rate stats for a debut. He led all rookies in games, homers, RBIs, and was second in runs scored. He also finished second in runs and fourth in wRC+, so he represented himself well at the plate.
And yet he was surpassed by a Tampa Bay Ray who barely cleared half a season and a Baltimore Orioles lefty would be anonymous if he weren't also the lone Orioles All-Star, and the lone American Leaguer who didn't appear in the game.
It feels like a snub, but Wins Above Replacement says Jiménez got what he deserved. Jiménez might not have even been a top-five rookie position player when including his defense ...
Players | fWAR | bWAR |
---|---|---|
Yordan Álvarez | 3.8 | 3.7 |
Brandon Lowe | 2.6 | 2.9 |
Cavan Biggio | 2.4 | 2.8 |
Luis Arraez | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Eloy Jimenez | 1.9 | 1.4 |
Oscar Mercado | 1.7 | 2.2 |
... while Means, Spencer Turnbull and Trent Thornton all had better WAR-related cases on the pitching side.
WAR might not be the most satisfying metric for Rookie of the Year. The award feels like it should attempt to act as a launchpad for future stardom, because it's weird to look back and see Robinson Cano behind Huston Street, and Manny Ramirez behind Bob Hamelin. Ranking the field by WAR alone makes it a trophy for a decent player who gamed the system by spreading unremarkable defense around multiple positions over the course of enough barely innings and plate appearances.
But even if voters wanted to tell a better story, it doesn't help that Jiménez waited until September to cement his status as an average player. He was hitting .247/.297/.459 with terrible defense at the end of August, but he salvaged his season because FanGraphs said he was worth 1.3 WAR in September alone. Conversely, Lowe cemented his value entirely in the first half due to leg injuries that took him out of the literal and figurative running. Means also frontloaded his season, saving his worst stuff for five starts at the start of the second half, after which he recovered.
Maybe Lowe doesn't crack the top three for playing 82 games in other seasons, but Álvarez's dynamic 87 games warped the conversation this season. There'd be a lot more to argue about if Álvarez's season didn't exist, but since he's locked it up, there's not much to debate.
I'd rather voters be too rigorous than not rigorous enough in general, and specific to this award, it's one where snubbing does the least damage. Missing Rookie of the Year doesn't come back to haunt a player the way a shortage of All-Star appearances, Cy Young and MVP finishes do. And who knows? If the disappointing finish reminds him of how much he needs to improve his defense to be passable over the long haul, then maybe this omission will do more good than harm.
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As for the rest of the Awards field, in alphabetical order:
- AL MVP: Alex Bregman, Marcus Semien, Mike Trout
- NL MVP: Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rendon, Christian Yelich
- AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander
- NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Max Scherzer
- NL Rookie of the Year: Pete Alonso, Mike Soroka, Fernando Tatis Jr.
- AL Manager of the Year: Rocco Baldelli, Aaron Boone, Kevin Cash
- NL Manager of the Year: Craig Counsell, Mike Shildt, Brian Snitker
I don't think anybody thought the White Sox were giving up a future MVP candidate in the Jeff Samardzija trade, just like I don't think anybody thought the A's were coming out way ahead by dealing Addison Russell. I'd say that it'd be nice if the Sox could benefit from one of these surprises, but Lucas Giolito almost cracked this cluster.