PREAMBLE
'The money will be spent.' - Rick Hahn, 2019
The 2019 White Sox had a number of positive developments that should give fans and the front office optimism going forward. Guys like Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada, and Tim Anderson showed that not only would they not look out of place on a contending team, but could actually anchor one.
But despite those immense positives, this is still a team that won only 72 games. For each player adding to that win total, there were two or three subtracting from it. Due to injury or underperformance, Dylan Covey, Ross Detwiler, Manny Banuelos, Ervin Santana, and Odrisamer Despaigne combined to start 38 games. Ryan Cordell, Charlie Tilson, Jon Jay, Ryan Goins, and AJ Reed all saw meaningful playing time. While this isn’t the worst thing in the world for a team that had no designs on contending, these guys absolutely cannot be Plan A, B, or even C for a team that wants to make a run at the division.
Speaking of the division, it’s wide open. The Tigers and Royals are still years away. The Indians showed that building a complete lineup is going to be near impossible if they continue to penny-pinch and will be mortal going into next year even if they continue to churn out high-quality starting pitching. The 101-win Twins depended heavily on short-term free agent additions to their lineup and need to replace 3/5ths of their starting rotation. There’s no reason not to make a push to compete in 2020.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M NON-TENDER
Colomé is a guy that I am tendering in November, but cutting by February assuming the rest of my plan comes through. I need him on the roster until I am sure that I have the pieces to replace him but I have better plans for this money, calculus from the Omar Narvaez trade be damned. He could be a guy that I send along in the Pittsburgh trade (see below) along with a bit of cash if they think they can flip him at the deadline next July.
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M NON-TENDER
I’m going to try and bring Yolmer back for something in the $3-4M range. He’s a good bench piece and can start at any of the infield positions for short stretches if an injury occurs. But I’m moving on rather quickly if he isn’t amenable to such a deal.
- James McCann, $4.9M TENDER
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M TENDER
Rodon will be about 9 months out from Tommy John when the decision about his future has to be made (assuming he is tendered and I can cut him in February with no salary due). If I’m the real White Sox, I’m aware of any red flags about his recovery at that point and can make the decision to cut ties then. But assuming everything goes well, he’s worth the 40 man spot now and the salary for the potential to provide rotation depth down the stretch and into 2021.
- Leury García, $4M TENDER
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M TENDER
- Josh Osich, $1M TENDER
- Ryan Goins, $900K NON-TENDER
$1M for Osich seems reasonable for a guy who made 57 appearances and whose K/BB led the team. It’s hard to see that happening again if he doesn’t learn how to pitch to righties but he’s good bullpen depth to keep around.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout - DECLINE
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) - Resign to $30M/2 w/$14M club option for 2022
Abreu has his warts, but when trying to bridge the gap to Andrew Vaughn, the devil you know is often better than the devil (Free Agent) you don’t. The key will be to get a deal done that Abreu will find acceptable and doesn’t hamstring you too far into the future. I think that a 2+1 will be necessary to get it done but a 1+1 would be preferable.
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) LET GO
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) LET GO
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019) LET GO
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: C Yasmani Grandal (Four Years, $70M 15/15/20/20 w/$20M club option for 2024).
I’ve seen Grandal seriously undervalued in several other plans. He turned down 60/4 last year from the Mets. I think it’s going to take at least that to get it done this time around. I’d even consider going higher if that’s what it takes for me to land my Free Agent target #1. He’s got the best bat available of any likely free agent not named JD Martinez. He provides switch-hitting balance, he walks a ton, and he doesn’t strike out, giving this lineup an infusion of some things they are sorely missing. Plus he’s a top 3 defensive player at the most important position in the game. He let’s James McCann maximize his contribution doing what he does best: be Lucas Giolito’s personal catcher and make plate appearances against LHP.
No. 2: RHSP Zack Wheeler (Five Years, $115M 25/25/25/20/20 w/opt out after 3)
Chasing Gerrit Cole to have him sign with the Angels in February is just going to be a massive waste of time and energy. There are a lot of moves to be made and waiting around for him is just going to slow us down! I tried to get myself to like Odorizzi or Bumgarner enough to have them be the target here but I’m going to break the bank for Wheeler. The injury history has to scare you a bit but he’s the safest bet to be a top of the rotation guy after Cole. I think he’s going to be bid up a bit but guaranteeing five years is going to be the difference. It’s going to be hard to get Jerry to go for this one but a man can dream.
No. 3: RHRP Chris Martin (Two Years $13M 6/7)
Chris Martin faced 216 batters for the Rangers and Braves last year and walked 5 of them while striking out 65. He’s a good and likely underrated relief option.
No. 4: LHSP Cole Hamels (One Year, $12M w/$12M club option for 2021)
Hamels has been more than solid the past few years. His age (36) will prevent him from securing a longer deal, but his veteran presence is worth the investment here.
No. 5: LHSP Wade Miley (One Year, $7M)
Back to back decent years might give Miley a bit more of a market, but I still think he has to settle for one year.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade OF Luis Gonzalez, OF Blake Rutherford and LHSP Bernando Flores to Pittsburgh for OF Starling Marte.
With how their current roster matches up within their division, Pittsburgh should be motivated to get younger. With their current owner, they should be motivated to get cheaper. Trading Marte for prospects addresses both these fronts. I was surprised this trade passed the trade simulator test and I would expect Marte to require a bit more (maybe a guy like Dunning), especially if other teams get involved. But this is Pittsbugh and if their recent trades are anything to go by, this might actually be a realistic return. The White Sox clear out some of their minor league outfield depth for a guy who can help now and Flores’ ground-ball heavy profile fits the Pirates’ M.O.
Marte provides good defense in the corners, passable defense in center, and some power without striking out a ton.
No. 2: Trade LHRP Jace Fry and RHSP Jimmy Lambert to the Dodgers for OF Joc Pederson.
Is trading for both Pederson and Marte necessary with Jimenez and Robert on the team? Probably not. Does having both Pederson and Marte make the White Sox a better team and create depth on the big-league squad? Certainly yes.
Rumors had the had the price of acquisition last year as Carson Fulmer, Aaron Bummer (pre-breakout), and Bryce Bush before Twitter stepped in to ruin a deal. Pederson had a nice 2019, but he’s a year closer to free agency and even more of a luxury for the Dodgers, meaning his trade value has only gone down.
Fry is a reliever with a rare 5-6 pitch mix going to a Dodgers team that has an infatuation with trading for lefty bullpen pieces. There’s some pause selling low on him after a 2019 where his walk rate doubled but this squad has other lefty options out of the bullpen and honestly Fry is not the kind of player I like rooting for anyway. Lambert is a wild card here but if the Dodgers can help him reach his ceiling after TJS rehab, more power to them.
No. 3: Trade RHSP Reynaldo Lopez to the Athletics for OF/UTIL Chad Pinder, RHRP Liam Hendriks, RHSP Parker Dunshee, & 2B/SS Nick Allen
I think Lopez has the talent to put it all together and be an above-average major league starter. But I also think the likelihood of that happening increases dramatically with a change of scenery. The White Sox should sell high on him and avoid a scenario where a bad start to 2020 dooms him to the bullpen and saps his trade value. The best trade partner to take on that risk/reward proposition is the Oakland A’s, who have major holes in their rotation and could use a cost-controlled starter while shedding two arbitration salaries for an ownership that is always cost-conscious.
Pinder is 27 with 3 years of arbitration ahead. He can cover every position on the field adequately except catcher and he provides a league-average bat against lefties. Hendriks is 30 with one year of arbitration left and immediately becomes the closer for this team. Dunshee is a command over stuff guy who provides upper minors starting depth. Allen is a low-minors middle infielder with a plus-plus glove.
EXTENSIONS
No. 1: 3B Yoan Moncada (6 Years, $79M 2/9/9/9/25/25 - “The Bregman Lite”)
Extending Moncada needs to be a priority. He was given a pretty penny when he signed out of Cuba so this will likely take guaranteed money, rather than club options. The structure is similar to the Alex Bregman deal last year, but with $21M less overall value.
No. 2: RHSP Lucas Giolito (4 Years, $37M 1/7/13/16 w/$17M club option for 2024 - “The Aaron Nola”)
An extension for Giolito following the structure from the Aaron Nola deal. Might want to push for a second option year and bump the guaranteed dollars here.
No. 3: OF Luis Robert (6 Years, 38M 1/2/4/7/10/14 w/ $17M & $19M club options for 2026 and 2027 - “The Eloy Jimenez”)
Robert also had a massive signing bonus so the chances of him signing this might not be great. Definitely worth a shot, though.
SUMMARY
LINEUP
LF Marte
3B Moncada
1B Abreu
C Grandal
DH Jimenez
RF Pederson
CF Robert
SS Anderson
2B Pinder (Madrigal by May)
BENCH
UTIL Garcia
UTIL Mendick (Pinder by May)
C McCann
C/1B Collins
PITCHERS
SP1 Wheeler
SP2 Giolito
SP3 Hamels
SP4 Cease
SP5 Miley (Kopech)
LR Covey (Miley)
MR Marshall
MR Cordero
MR Osich
MR Herrera
SU Martin
SU Bummer
CL Hendriks
On the lineup: Eloy shouldn’t be the everyday designated hitter. But it’s also hard to imagine that he makes it through more than 122 games this time around if he’s in the field for all of them. He’s a liability to injure himself or someone else. If he needs to DH two times a week to make sure he gets a full season of plate appearances, he should.
With this roster the DH spot can be used to spell anyone in the regular lineup from having to play the field or for guys nursing minor injuries. There’s a ton of positional flexibility from the new additions. Marte can play all three outfield spots. Pederson can play both corners and had over 100 innings of experience at first last year. Pinder can fill in just about anywhere competently. This lineup can withstand a handful of major injuries before an AAAA-type player would need to be called upon to cover significant playing time.
The rotation now features credible veterans. A big problem with last year’s squad was the number of games that were over by the fourth inning because the starter imploded. The risk of that should now be minimized. I think slow-playing Kopech’s return so that he hits his innings limit around October 1st rather than September 1st is wise and Miley gives them the flexibility to do so, as well as the flexibility to give Dylan Cease a bit of a tune-up in AAA if he stumbles out of the gate.
The negatives. The bullpen is stronger but not as strong as I would like. But Coop has shown that he can find at least one cast-off per year to turn into a productive reliever. Plus I still believe that there has to be some use for Dylan Covey and his 95 mph sinker. I also wish I could have fit in another starting pitcher. I hurt myself there by trading away Lopez, but I really think that selling high on him is the best move. Hopefully retaining Rodon pays off in case multiple injuries occur. The lineup is the strongest part of this plan and, although it took a lot of resources to get it done, it seems a safe bet to accomplish the goal of “no more playing time for Ryan Cordell.” Grandal is the only big long-term addition but I see that as a strength to give additional flexibility to the team moving forward.
The total salary is at $147M, with $105M (including the extension #s) committed to 2021. That figure is firmly in the middle of the pack for major league teams and should be well within reason for a motivated team in the third largest media market in the country, with a new TV deal in tow and after years of low payroll squads. I could wax poetic about how the White Sox could push the payroll even higher and still make a profit, but this is running long as it is. If you really want to stick to the spirit of the exercise, forget the Marte trade (-$11.5M) which might have been a bit unrealistic at that price anyways, Miley is a luxury (-$7M), and Odorizzi is a more cost effective option than Wheeler (~$15M a year). The salary is now at $118.5M and the squad is significantly weaker. But, if you instead see the point of this exercise as throwing around as many ideas and possibilities as you can, I think this plan meets that goal with tons of roster turnover and creating lots of depth.
