PREAMBLE
I'll start off by admitting I have a much sunnier outlook than most Sox fans when it comes to expectations. Call it being a homer, call it being a masochist, you're not wrong either way. This offseason isn't about having a seat at the table, it's about grabbing the first turkey leg and not apologizing for making a mess. So let's go!
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M - tender (no-brainer)
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M - tender (more obvious than expected)
- James McCann, $4.9M - tender (like, duh)
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M - tender
- Leury García, $4M - tender
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M - tender
- Josh Osich, $1M - tender
- Ryan Goins, $900K - non-tender
CLUB OPTIONS
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout - bye felicia
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) - re-sign 3y/$48M (promised hometown discount from Jose)
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) - thanks for the memory, adios
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) - who?
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) - offer him a minor league deal because it will happen at some point in the season anyway
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Stephen Strasburg (4 years, $115 million, mutual option for 5th year at $30M). We all want Gerrit Cole but all the whispers are saying he wants to be out west. I think he'll end up with the Angels. That said, why not go after the next best starter instead of dropping to the middle of pack? Because of the relatively thin SP market (lot of guys are 33 & older) Strasburg can easily get more than what he's opting out of (4y/$100M). He's been consistent since his return from TJ & can be the perfect mentor to our young staff.
No. 2: Avi Garcia (3 years, $24 million) Well I blew a lot of my FA budget already (thanks JR) so we need to be smart here. This deal would be for Avi to DH exclusively. He's productive when healthy & typically gets hurt doing Avi things in the outfield. If you can get over 500 at-bats out of him this will be money well spent.
No. 3: Cole Calhoun (1 years, $11 million w/team option for 2nd year at $13M) He's not a sexy pickup but he's a solid defender who finally produced some pop in 2019 which is all we need to compliment this lineup. Adding him gives you 7 players who can give you 30 homers.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade Jake Berger & Dane Dunning to the cubs for Jose Quintana. This deal was accepted in a trade simulator so screw it. We need a lefty starter & have no clue what we're getting from our 2 TJ surgery guys yet. A starting 5 on opening day of Giolito, Strasburg, Quintana, Cease & Lopez as your worst case scenario until Kopech is 100% is not terrible. I still think Kopech is on the opening day roster & the team might work with a 6 man rotation for a while since there's an extra roster spot this year. This is of course assuming the cubs don't cub it up & decline Q's option. If they do he's a no-brainer free agent pickup which alters everything.
SUMMARY
Here's my Opening Day 26 man roster (13 pitchers):
- Giolito - $600k
- Strasburg - $28.75M
- Kopech - $600k
- Cease - $600k
- Lopez - $600k
- Quintana - $10.5M
- Alex Colomé - $10.3M
- Evan Marshall - $1.3M
- Josh Osich - $1M
- Bummer - $600k
- Jimmy Cordero - $600k
- Jace Fry - $600k
- Kelvin Herrera - $9M
- James McCann - $4.9M
- Zach Collins - $600k
- Jose Abreu - $16M
- Yolmer Sánchez - $6.2M
- Tim Anderson - $4M
- Yoan Moncada - $600k
- Eloy Jimenez - $2.33
- Luis Robert - $500k
- Kole Halhoun - $11M
- Avi Garcia - $8M
- Leury García - $4M
- Daniel Palka - $600k
- Adam Engel - $600k
So here's the biggest mansplaining I have to do: why the F is Yolmer still a member of this team at that price? I've seen all sorts of alternatives including older 1 year free agent options to starting Leury there to who cares play anybody but him. At the end of the day you don't let a Gold Glove walk out the door for nothing. Even if Mardigal is your starting 2B of the future we don't know how long Nick will be down in AAA next season. Contrary to some (un)popular beliefs I do think Yolmer will have a trade market even at that price, especially since he still has another year of control. If we need bullpen help & are fighting for the playoffs that could be a very valuable trade chip to have.
So here's my Calhoun logic: OFFER THE MOON TO BETTS OR JOC NEXT OFFSEASON! That's it.
I truly believe Avi can be an Allstar DH if he's healthy. He's got all the tools & a chip on his shoulder (as opposed to an injury on it) coming back could be a powerful thing.
Let's say best case scenario if all of our starting pitchers pan out then we have a very nice surplus moving forward to swing a big trade. If we don't re-sign Q after the season then either Lopez or Rodon become expendable with Gio, Stras, Kopech & Cease are your no doubt top 4 moving forward. That said, who knows maybe the whole Lopez to the pen could become an option. Depth is always a good problem to have.
I'm slightly over the limit at $125M and change but that can easily be remedied if we can offload Herrera unless he returns to form in that case it's money well spent. Hope you all enjoyed!
