The 2019 Chicago White Sox finished 72-89 in Year 3 of their rebuild. Even though they have seven straight losing seasons, I could see the White Sox being a popular dark horse pick by national writers and analysts to make the postseason in 2020. Why? Well compare the White Sox rebuild, and their once best farm system in baseball, to how other franchises have fared after Year 3.
- 2015 Houston Astros won 86 games (+16 win difference from Year 3)
- 2015 Chicago Cubs won 97 games (+24 win difference from Year 3)
- 2018 Atlanta Braves won 90 games (+18 win difference from Year 3)
Following that line of logic, maybe the 2020 White Sox will follow the footsteps of the Cubs/Astros/Braves and be an 88 to 96 win team. I just doubt it with the roster they currently have on hand. Reinforcements are coming with Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal entering into the fold, and Michael Kopech is returning from injury. However, those three players are not enough, in my opinion, to create an additional 16 to 24 wins. Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams need to find help outside of their current 40-man roster.
I have a lot of ideas on how the White Sox can make the transition from rebuilder to contender. My strategy is to add veterans who have proven to excel at the plate and will help bolster the team's efforts getting on-base while hitting for more power. Plus, adding to the pitching staff a starter who can help provide a consistent presence, a swing-man to soak up spot starts, and an old face to help with high leverage situations out of the bullpen.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries.
Alex Colomé, $10.3M - Tender
I’m not thrilled about the price tag for Colomé, but his services are needed.
Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M - Non-Tender
Yolmer Sánchez is a good fit for the clubhouse and is a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman. I just can’t justify the price for a hitter who only slugged .321 last season with the bouncy ball.
James McCann, $4.9M - Tender
Carlos Rodon, $4.5M - Non-Tender
A controversial decision to let Carlos Rodon go early, but I find it to be justified for a couple of reasons. Rodon won’t be pitching until June at the earliest, and more than likely won’t be available to the White Sox until July. If you’re a believer in Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Kopech, and the Sox add another starting pitcher or two, where does Rodon fit in the mix?
Of course, that assumes Rodon is fully healthy, which hasn’t been the case for most of his career with the White Sox. There is also knowing that team control for Rodon ends in 2021, and it doesn’t seem that either party has much interest in working out a long-term deal. I believe it is best for both the White Sox and Rodon to go their separate ways now. The White Sox can allocate $4.5 million elsewhere while Rodon can seek a fresh start with a new team.
If the White Sox do tender Rodon a contract, we'll be talking about his role with the ball club quite a bit come July. It'll be interesting to see in what ways Hahn envisions using Rodon if the starting rotation is performing and healthy.
- Leury García, $4M - Tender
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M - Tender
- Josh Osich, $1M - Non-Tender
- Ryan Goins, $900K - Non-Tender
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout - Buyout
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) - Retain; Two year, $30 million deal + club option ($15 million, $3 million buyout).
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) - Let go
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) - Let go
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) - Let go
After arbitration and signing Jose Abreu to a new deal, I have around $64 million dollars to spend before hitting the $120 million budget. Here is how I would go about adding new players.
FREE AGENTS
Sign DH/RF J.D. Martinez to a three year, $70 million deal + club option
2020: $24 million
2021: $24 million
2022: $22 million
2023: $22 million (Club Option, $5 million buyout)
I do believe that Scott Boras will convince J.D. Martinez to opt-out of his remaining three years with the Boston Red Sox, which he’s scheduled to make $62.5 million. It would be a risky decision for a 32-year old hitter who is mostly limited to being a designated hitter, but I find Martinez to be elite. By signing Martinez, the White Sox would be adding a power bat that will hit better than .300, while walking 10% of the time, and slug better than .550. A big boost from the White Sox DH’s who combined to hit .205/.285/.356 with just 17 home runs last year. Even though he should be limited to how many games played in right field, Martinez’s bat is much needed.
Then there is the clubhouse benefit of adding Martinez to a young core of hitters. In The MVP Machine, part of the book shares Martinez’s journey in transforming himself as a hitter but also willing to share his wisdom and help his teammates, especially Mookie Betts. Boston Red Sox hitting coach Tim Hyers had good things to say about Martinez’s influence.
“I have to give a big credit to J.D. Martinez,” Hyers says. “ When you have a superstar, and you have a guy who’s already proven it, to come in and back what you’re saying and have those conversations one-on-one with players. . . J.D. was huge on saying, ‘Hey Mookie, you do this part.’ And they had their own private conversations that helped a ton also.”
Excerpt from The MVP Machine by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik
Betts went on to hit .346/.438/.640 with 32 home runs and to lead the league in runs scored with 129 to beat Mike Trout for AL MVP in his first season working alongside Martinez. Can you imagine what kind of impact Martinez could have on Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada?
Sign SP Jake Odorizzi to a three year, $35 million deal
2020: $11 million
2021: $12 million
2022: $12 million
There are better starting pitching options, but I'm picking Jake Odorizzi because his contract is one that Jerry Reinsdorf would approve. Signing Gerrit Cole is a dream all baseball fans have for their favorite teams, but I can't see Reinsdorf supporting an eight-year, $280 million deal to land him. Hell, I have a hard time finding Reinsdorf approving an agreement for Zach Wheeler that could fall between four or five years for $18 million per season. The joys of being a White Sox fan.
Odorizzi is a $10-$12 million dollar a season starting pitcher joined with others like him in Tanner Roark and Alex Wood. I decided on Odorizzi because I think he can provide consistency into a Sox starting pitching that is promising but is inconsistent outside of Giolito. Odorizzi also posted impressive numbers against AL Central opponents.
Against the AL Central in 2019:
- Cleveland Indians: 4 GS, 1.61 ERA, 22.1 IP, 29 K 10 BB
- Detroit Tigers: 4 GS, 1.88 ERA, 24.0 IP, 27 K to 2 BB
- Chicago White Sox: 4 GS, 2.86 ERA, 22.0 IP, 32 K to 5 BB
Oh, and those starts against Kansas City? You don't need to see them *shoves stats into paper shredder*.
Sign SP/RP Wade Miley to a one year, $4.5 million deal
Wade Miley was having a terrific season for the Houston Astros until September. I’m not entirely sure what happened, but Miley in five starts allowed 21 ER in just 11.1 innings. In his only postseason outing as of this writing, Miley in 2.2 innings allowed three runs to Tampa in the ALDS. Before September, Miley had a 3.06 ERA, so he still could be a capable starter. The issue with Miley is that he’s limited to five innings as he racks up high pitch counts quickly.
The role I foresee using Miley is a swingman out of the bullpen. Spot starts when other starters get injured while taking on two to three innings in relief a couple of times a week. I feel more comfortable having Miley make 10-15 starts for the 2020 White Sox than say using Dylan Covey. The contract amount is the same he made with Houston in 2019.
Sign RP Daniel Hudson to a two year, $15 million deal
2020: $7 million
2021: $8 million
Daniel Hudson was having a good year with the Toronto Blue Jays before being traded to the Washington Nationals where he took his performance to the next level. In 24 appearances, Hudson pitched 25 innings striking out 23 with just four walks and a 1.44 ERA. In his six postseason appearances helping the Nationals win the National League pennant, Hudson didn’t allow a run.
Alex Colome and Aaron Bummer did an excellent job locking down high leverage situations for the White Sox in 2019, but I would feel more comfortable if the White Sox added bullpen depth. Signing someone like Hudson, who now throws a 96-plus mph fastball and pairs it with a slider, would be a smart investment. My fear is that if Hudson continues to be lights out during the World Series, my contract offer could be short even though it would be a career high for him.
Sign C Martin Maldonado to a one year, $2.5 million deal
Even in a small sample size, I think Zack Collins demonstrated he’s not a major league catcher. The thought of having him as the primary backup to James McCann is a bit scary, so I think it’s worthwhile to bring in a veteran backstop.
Martin Maldonado won’t add much offensively, but he’s better at pitch framing and blocking than McCann. Paring Maldonado with Reynaldo Lopez might be a good idea to help find consistency between starts.
I addressed designated hitter, pitching staff, and backup catcher through free agency. Now it’s time to add an outfielder.
TRADES
Trade SP Jonathan Stiever (or Dane Dunning), OF Blake Rutherford, and C Seby Zavala to Pittsburgh for OF Starling Marte.
Everything that I have been reading out of Pittsburgh is that this offseason could go two ways for the Pirates.
- They could be active in the mid-tier free agency in attempting to build a roster to compete for the NL Central.
- They could be active in trading their veterans away to get younger and try to reload a roster that will be competitive in 2021.
I'm thinking the latter option is most likely as the Cardinals, Cubs, and Brewers are too strong for the Pirates to think about them winning the NL Central in 2020. Last year, the White Sox and Pirates made an Ivan Nova deal work to help Pittsburgh shed $9.5 million.
Going back to that well, taking on Starling Marte's remaining two years, $24 million would be an excellent addition for the White Sox. In 2019, Marte was a 3.0 WAR player according to FanGraphs hitting .295/.342/.503 with 23 home runs and 82 RBIs in 132 games. While he still can cover center field, in my ideal lineup Marte is switching to right field primarily.
For Pittsburgh, they receive Jonathan Stiever, who has some helium to his name. With a 97-mph fastball and sharp breaking pitches, Stiever has the makings of a power pitcher. He hasn't reached AA yet, so I wouldn't worry if Pittsburgh asked for Dane Dunning to be swapped instead. If Dunning returns to form, the Pirates will be receiving a pitcher in AA with a ceiling of a back-end starter. If the Pirates prefer Stiever, there might be a #2 or #3 starter profile for him, but it's hard to gauge as he hasn't pitched in AA yet. Though, his stuff is someone that teams love to dream on.
Blake Rutherford, at this point, might be a fourth outfielder. The Pirates have done a good job developing outfielders, so maybe they can unlock more of Rutherford's potential. Seby Zavala is a cheap backup catcher option Pittsburgh can plug into the 26-man roster if they wanted.
The most significant benefit for Pittsburgh in this deal would be getting out of Marte's contract. Excellent opportunity for the White Sox to take advantage of adding an outfielder at a reasonable amount.
SUMMARY
I’ve added six new players to the White Sox 26-man roster for the 2020 season with Martinez, Odorizzi, and Marte headlining the offseason. It’s not sexy like adding Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon, but if the trio repeats their 2019 performance, that’s 10+ WAR added to the roster. While Hudson, Miley, and Maldonado won’t have as big of an impact, I still think they will help in the margins to add some additional wins.
Before the season begins, my spending wouldn’t end until I make three more moves.
EXTENSIONS
Sign Lucas Giolito and Yoan Moncada to six-year, $77.5 million deals + two club options
2020: $1 million
2021: $6.5 million
2022: $15 million
2023: $15 million
2024: $20 million
2025: $20 million
2026: $20 million (club option)
2027: $20 million (club option)
Sign Luis Robert to a six-year, $43 million + two club options (same deal as Eloy Jimenez)
I believe that the 2019 performances from both Lucas Giolito and Yoan Moncada can be repeated. Right now, both will be entering their final seasons before arbitration, in which those costs could be difficult to project or budget.
A good reason to work out an extension with both Giolito and Moncada, To make it worthwhile for them, I would offer a contract that guarantees $77.5 million over six seasons. With two club options that could grow to $117.5 million over eight seasons. I’m optimistic those options will be worth picking up.
I’m predicting that Luis Robert will sign a new contract before the season starts. The White Sox get an opportunity to keep their star prospect for more than six years and allows Robert to start Opening Day in center field. Each player would make $1 million in 2020.
ROSTER & BUDGET
After all of the moves, I come in at $119,550,000 for the 26-man roster.
Projected Opening Day Lineup:
- Starling Marte - RF
- Yoan Moncada - 3B
- Jose Abreu - 1B
- J.D. Martinez - DH
- Eloy Jimenez - LF
- Tim Anderson - SS
- Luis Robert - CF
- James McCann - C
- Leury Garcia - 2B
Bench: Zack Collins, Martin Maldonado, Adam Engel, Danny Mendick*
*Let’s talk about how I would handle second base in 2020. To start, I would have Leury Garcia keep the position warm for Nick Madrigal to evaluate his readiness in May. If the 2018 first-round pick proves he’s ready for the majors, I would promote and start Madrigal at second while having Garcia play the super-utility role. That would mean a demotion for Mendick.
Projected Opening Day Starting Rotation:
- Lucas Giolito
- Jake Odorizzi
- Reynaldo Lopez
- Dylan Cease
- Michael Kopech
Bullpen
Swingman: Wade Miley
Closer: Alex Colome
Setup: Daniel Hudson, Aaron Bummer
Middle Relief: Evan Marshall, Jace Fry, Jimmy Cordero, and Kelvin Herrera
