PREAMBLE
The Tigers and Royals are fully settled into the American League basement, both the Indians payroll and contention window are sliming down, and the Twins can't possibly hit 307 (!) homers again in a season. There is a clear opportunity for the White Sox to move up in the standings for 2020 and beyond. The baseball gods quietly did everyone on the South Side a huge favor by sending Mr. Machado and his 300 million to San Diego. That money is still available and now it won't be as difficult to convince players and agents that playing for the White Sox can mean playing for a playoff-bound team. We saw breakout seasons from four cost-controlled long-term assets in TA7, Yoan, Eloy & Giolito. Better yet, that was only wave number one. Insert Robert, Kopech, Madrigal & Cease and now we have a storm brewing of some serious high ceiling talent. So sit back, relax and strap it down... the time is now.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M - TENDER
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M - NON-TENDER
- James McCann, $4.9M - TENDER
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M - TENDER
- Leury García, $4M - TENDER
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M - TENDER
- Josh Osich, $1M - TENDER
- Ryan Goins, $900K - NON-TENDER
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout - DECLINE
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) - RETAIN
- Resign for 2 years/$32M with team option of $14M ($14M, $14M, $4M buyout)
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) - LET GO
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) - LET GO
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) - LET GO
Not much to say here, bringing back Abreu is a very safe bet. I personally would want him back on a one year deal with a mutual option, but I ultimately think the White decide to keep their clubhouse leader happy with a multi-year commitment.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: J.D. Martinez (3 years, $67.5 million) w/ a player option after the first year ($24.5M, $21.5. $21.5M). This move to me makes too much sense. Martinez is exactly what the White Sox need with the bat, but his market will be limited. Few AL teams need a DH, and those who do most likely won't make a multi-year commitment over $20M annually for a DH-only guy with a QO attached. I think he should play another year in Boston and then opt out next year when more AL teams are ready to contend and spend, but my name isn't Scott Boras. Luckily for the White Sox, he might just fall into their lap on a short term commitment that is very similar to the one he opts out of in Boston. It's also good to note that he is a baseball analytical junky and can only do wonders on his new fellow Cuban teammates such as Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, and...
No. 2: Yasmani Grandal (4 years, $72 million) w/ a team option of $15M ($17.5M, $17.5M. $17.5M, $17.5M, $2M buyout). I want Abreu, Martinez, and Grandal all in one big introductory press preference before the winter meetings in December. Make a statement that these three veteran All-Stars are here together to lead this team to the next level. Coincidentally, all three would rank as the 3 largest contracts ever in White Sox history (lol). Without mentioning James McCann breakout season last year, the White Sox could really use Grandal. He's a great framer on the defensive side, with a high OBP bat from both sides of the plate. More on James McCann later...
No. 3: Brock Holt (2 years, $16 million) w/ a team option of $8.5M ($6.5M, $8.5M, $1M buyout). I will admit that this is unfortunately marks the end of the "big contract" portion of my offseason plan. However, the A's and Rays continually prove that you don't always need to spend big coin to win games. Brock Holt is a pretty valuable asset for any team with his versatility. Given the inevitable delayed promotions of Robert and Madrigal, Holt can come in and immediately play all over the diamond. The Sox need more lefty bats and more high OBP guys. Well here you go.
No. 4: Gio Gonzalez (1 year, $5 million). I'm sure you're rolling your eyes over this one but please click the baseball reference link I provided to look at his numbers. Mid three's ERA in just over half a season is pretty decent and you can never have enough arms so I'll gladly slide him into the back of the rotation. Did you also know he is of Cuban decent?
No. 5: Darren O'Day (1 year, $3.5 million). I have no idea what his market will be considering that he's been on the shelf a lot the past couple years. This may actually just be a minor league deal with some incentive money. But his numbers have always been good and I'm a big fan of the wacky delivery.
More Minor League deals: Get a catcher to compete for the backup job, say Chris Iannetta. Also Curtis Granderson is probably close to retiring and he should get a shot to play in his hometown where he does so much off the field and in the community. Seriously, the dude has his own stadium named after him less than 4 miles from Guaranteed Rate!!!
TRADES
Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them.
No. 1: Trade James McCann & Reynaldo Lopez to Cincinnati for Anthony Descalfani & Jesse Winker. The Reds are probably going to target Grandal but when they miss out on him, they'll still be looking acquire another backstop. They can deal from a position of strength (their starting rotation) and upgrade behind the plate in the short term, while taking on a high upside arm like Lopez to fill in for Descalfani. Winker is underrated offensively and is another high OBP guy. He slots very nicely into right field for the Sox as a reliable lefty bat. In case you were wondering, McCann and Descalfani will each have similar arbitration price tags for their last year of control while Lopez and Winker each have four years left of control.
SUMMARY
I tried being realistic with this. I don't see the White Sox getting Cole or Rendon, but I still think they can win the division without them if enough breaks their way. Maybe some will critique that my plan didn't involve signing or trading for a big named pitcher. Beyond Cole and Strasburg, I don't think that you're getting an ace-like pitcher on the market. Many guys with declining numbers will get overpaid and pitchers are always more of a long term risk. Additionally, I think between Giolito, Cease and Kopech - you will see at least 2 out of 3 of them be ace-like pitchers. The White Sox have typically not spent big on pitchers, but they've also done a pretty good job developing them. The same can't be said for hitters, which is why I think it's important to go out and revamp the lineup with the money they have to spend.
I hope to see some comments and feedback, I'm curious what others have to say. Go Sox!
LINEUP
RF - Jessie Winker, $555k
SS - Tim Anderson, $4M
DH - JD Martinez, $24.5M
3B - Yoan Moncada, $555k
1B - Jose Abreu, $15M
C - Yasmani Grandal, $17.5M
LF - Eloy Jimenez, $2.33M
CF - Luis Robert, $555k
2B - Nick Madrigal, $555k
BENCH
C - Chris Iannetta (C/1B - Zack Collins, $555k)
UT - Leury García, $4M
IF - Brock Holt, $7.25M
OF - Curtis Granderson (CF Adam Engel, $555k)
ROTATION
SP - Lucas Giolito, $555k
SP - Dylan Cease, $555k
SP - Anthony Descalfani, $5.2M
SP - Gio Gonzalez, $5M
SP - Michael Kopech, $555k
BULLPEN
CL - Alex Colome, $10.3M
SU - Kelvin Herrera, $8.5M
RP - Darren O’Day, $3.5M
RP - Aaron Bummer, $555k
RP - Jace Fry, $555k
RP - Evan Marshall, $1.3M
RP - Jimmy Cordero, $555k
RP - Josh Osich, $1M
(SP) - Carlos Rodon, $4.5M
Welington Castillo: $500k
Total: $119.29
