The White Sox' schedule feels bizarre this year, but giving it a moment of thought, I don't know if I've ever thought a schedule was good. Even when a team is in a stretch of games against a variety of opponents with no long road trips and a sensible sprinkling of open dates, I don't think anybody says, "Hey, great job by Major League Baseball getting the balance right between home and road, inter- and intra-division, with the proper amount of off days to give teams a breather without disrupting the rhythm." No, the MLB schedule is something to be tolerated, never appreciated.
But it is a weird schedule.
The White Sox are in the middle of a stretch of 36 games in 37 days. They played Baltimore and Detroit in back-to-back series in late April ... then played Baltimore and Detroit in back-to-back series in late April. They played the Indians and Blue Jays in consecutive series in mid-May, and now they'll play the Indians and Blue Jays in consecutive series in mid-May. Cleveland stops by for the third series of the season, but just the first at Guaranteed Rate Field. Meanwhile, the Sox haven't seen the Twins yet, and won't until Memorial Day weekend.
The White Sox will have a whopping six off days in June to make up for what they haven't missed over the first two months.
Fortunately, the White Sox aren't facing quality while they've dealt with quantity. Only 16 of their 39 games have taken place against winning teams, giving them the second-weakest schedule of all MLB teams thus far.
The White Sox haven't exactly seized the day, as they're only 18-21 despite all the help. However, they are more watchable, ever since Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Ivan Nova started going six on a regular basis to make Rick Renteria's bullpen management easier.
But now we're getting to the point where schedule strength starts to be the elephant in the room. The last time the White Sox faced an above-average offense, the Red Sox dragged the warning track with them. Since then, they've faced Cleveland and Toronto, which have the American League's two worst offenses. And now they'll face Cleveland and Toronto again.
It's difficult to get a gauge on some guys. Is Lucas Giolito a revelation, what with his 3.55 ERA over seven starts? Or is he merely a top-flight bumslayer? Divide his numbers based on whether he's facing an above-average or below-average offense, and here's what you get:
- Top half: 1-1, 7.53 ERA, 14.1 IP, 19 H, 3 HR, 10 BB, 17 K
- Bottom half: 2-0, 1.14 ERA, 23.2 IP, 10 H, 0 HR, 5 BB, 23 K
The same can be said for Iván Nova, who allowed two runs over two starts against the Indians and Blue Jays last week, but got his clock cleaned by even unimpressive offenses before then.
I think there's no question that Giolito is better, mainly because he knows what he's working with on a start-to-start basis. Last year, he dumped his arsenal on the ground in the first inning and needed three innings to comb through it and assemble something workable. This year, his fastball is reliably 93-95 with reliably more carry, his changeup is his first option, and his curveball is now his fourth pitch. Last year was as enjoyable as bad improv, replete with panicked stalling until enough flop sweat accumulated for an idea to germinate. This year, he has a better foundation and his delivery looks less labored.
Maybe Giolito's early struggles were more about cold weather and feel than better opponents, and his increased reliance on the changeup gives him an answer to the former. It's just hard to know whether Giolito is good or merely adequate until he faces deeper, more dangerous lineups on a more regular basis. (You can also apply this to perceptions of James McCann's game-calling.)
I think Giolito can put up more of a fight when the Houstons and Minnesotas of baseball finally show up on the schedule. The good news is that unless all these rebuilds click, an AL Central team can always put a stat-padder to use.
