The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum will announce its Class of 2019 tonight, one that still improbably includes Harold Baines.
It's going to be another big crew. Ryan Thibodaux's ballot tracker shows that another four are likely to be voted in by the Baseball Writers Association of America.
With 53 percent of the ballots in, here's how the candidates were faring:
- Mariano Rivera, 100.0
- Roy Halladay, 92.7
- Edgar Martinez, 90.5
- Mike Mussina, 81.4
- Roger Clemens, 71.4
- Barry Bonds, 70.9
- Curt Schilling, 70.9
- Larry Walker, 65.5
- Fred McGriff, 38.6
- Omar Vizquel, 37.7
- Manny Ramirez, 25.5
- Scott Rolen, 20.9
- Todd Helton, 18.2
- Jeff Kent, 16.8
- Billy Wagner, 16.6
- Gary Sheffield, 13.6
- Sammy Sosa, 11.4
- Andruw Jones, 8.2
- Andy Pettitte, 6.8
The private ballots usually take some of the shine off the totals, whether it's because they're "small hall" in nature, or whether they don't approach the ballot with the same kind of analytical rigor that makes defending it in public much easier.
Mussina will be the key case, as he's been the kind of pitcher to take a much bigger hit among private voters. He climbed up to 63.5 percent last year, which was 6.5 percent lower than his public percentage leading up to the announcement. Take the same share off that 2019 number above, and he finishes one-tenth of a point below the 75 percent threshold. I'd expect the public-private margin to close in his case, because voters tend to accept a player's momentum. (Roy Halladay may also help him, as Mussina's counting stats are superior.)
The other question is whether the private ballots will knock Mariano Rivera off the track toward being the first unanimous Hall of Famer in history. The answer is "probably," because if Greg Maddux could only get 97 percent of the vote for throwing 5,000 innings, Rivera probably will get knocked by somebody for only throwing a quarter of that total.
In terms of symbolism, it'd be really weak to see a closer be the first to get the unanimous nod. Then again, there should be more unanimous Hall of Famers, so if Rivera is the one to force the door open, my stance is the same as it is with Baines: good for him.
My ballot, if I had one:
- Barry Bonds
- Roger Clemens
- Roy Halladay
- Andruw Jones
- Edgar Martinez
- Mike Mussina
- Mariano Rivera
- Scott Rolen
- Curt Schilling
- Larry Walker
With Sheffield and Sosa as the first off. Schilling and Walker were the first off my ballot in previous years, and while it's no fun to vote for Schilling, I like his case better than Jones and Rolen, both of whom I'm still uncertain about, but both of whom deserve a longer look.
The ones receiving underwhelming support can breath a little easier if they can clear 5 percent. With Derek Jeter looking like the only likely Hall of Famer in next year's class, the backlog should be just about cleared, unless Paul Konerko pulls a Harold Baines and gets Cooperstown clearance out of nowhere.
