As July draws near, a young fan's fancy heavily, lustily turns to thoughts of trades. It's probably the most popular question I receive in our #POSox mailbag callout, and it looks something like his inquiry from Sox Machine Supporter John:
Who do you think gets seriously shopped before July 31st, and how do the potential returns look?
The White Sox made trades of note the last two deadlines, and even some August deals in recent years brought back non-negligible returns.
This year, it's hard to see the Sox being especially active. Joakim Soria's early-season renaissance is something on which you can hang a few hopes, but he's not quite Jose Quintana in terms of trade value, nor does Soria have the kind of company Quintana had on the block.
Here's what the cupboard looks like to me.
Expiring contracts
Joakim Soria: A disclaimer: He comes with a $10 million team option for 2019, and the buyout is no longer automatic. After a rocky start, he has a 2.89 ERA, a 2.39 FIP, 32 strikeouts to five walks over 28 innings. He's also saved 11 of 13 games, and hasn't allowed an earned run over his last 14 outings. Dropping down has breathed life into his stuff. In April, he looked like a guy who had rely too heavily on sloooooow curves and quick pitches to get through a game, but lowering an arm angle has allowed him to get better results on his harder breaking stuff to righties, and that allows him to record outs in a more straightforward manner. Teams might want to see him sustain the success into late July -- especially if their scouting reports think they can adjust to him -- but should he somehow maintain this level of success, he could have teams competing for his services.
James Shields: The problem with moving a starter like Shields is that he probably isn't good enough to crack a postseason rotation, and he doesn't have the stuff to help out in the bullpen (the first inning is his worst inning by far). He serves a modest purpose on a team as a guy who can throw six innings and turn over the calendar to the next day, which makes me think he's somebody who might be moved in August, like...
Miguel Gonzalez: ... who recovered enough of his stuff from his annual shoulder-related DL stint to yield Forbes in an August trade with Texas last year. Maybe Shields gets this year's version of Ti'Quan Forbes, but the Sox probably won't be able to go back to that well with Gonzalez.
Hector Santiago: If he's a 'tweener on the pitching staff of a rebuilding team -- and if he came to that rebuilding team on a minor-league contract -- then I'm skeptical that another team could find a use for him. Long relievers aren't difficult to find.
Potentially crowded out
Xavier Cedeno: Assuming Cedeno finishes the rest of the season on the roster, he'll hit free agency after 2019. If he spends a week or so in the minors, it'll push free agency back a year (corrected). Either way, if he keeps pitching the way he has -- no runs, 11 strikeouts to six baserunners over 7⅓ innings -- he could have a market for relief help, especially if a team needs lefty relief depth beyond 2018. The Sox don't have that problem, what with ...
Luis Avilan: ... in a similar situation. He has one more arbitration year after this one, and with Jace Fry and Aaron Bummer hanging around for longer, he could be on the move. Avilan's numbers looked better before Oakland roughed him up for three runs over an inning, causing his ERA to soar from 3.00 to 4.09. He's been good-not-great against lefties, is allowing a lot of fly balls, and his fastball velocity is down a tick, so I think Cedeno's market would be more robust.
Jace Fry: Unless the Sox decide to deal a guy who has already undergone two Tommy John surgeries. On the other hand, if I'm a team looking for a lefty reliever, I might be wondering why the Sox are willing to deal him at this time.
Leury Garcia: This is the second straight year where an injury has prevented him from establishing himself as a truly compelling superutility guy. He's hit .270/.315/.407 over the last two years, and while last year's power might've been the result of juiced balls, he's countered by going 9-for-9 in stolen-base attempts over just 42 games this season. He can be advertised fairly easily: A switch-hitting .700 OPS+, pinch-running ability, covers center field and middle infield on the depth chart, and isn't a free agent until 2021. He just needs to stay healthy in order to sell himself.
Avisail Garcia: It's June 25 and he's yet to draw a walk. The injury has a lot to do with that, but it's not like that makes him more appealing. I imagine the Sox will play him every day over the remainder of the season in an attempt to assess what he has over his final season before free agency.
Yolmer Sanchez: I was making Eduardo Escobar comparison before Escobar comparisons were cool. He might not hit 10 homers this year, which makes it difficult to pitch him as an impact infielder (Escobar is on pace for 25 this year). Like Escobar, he's a highly likeable fellow who makes everybody's job easier, and I don't think the Sox deal him for depth.
The big one
Jose Abreu: Since he's leading the All-Star voting at first base and hits free agency after the 2019 season, he's the most obvious trade candidate on paper. In practice, the market around him has always been cool. The White Sox say they value him more than other teams due to his presence, and first basemen have been in abundant supply the last couple of years. I'm guessing this will continue to be the case. I wouldn't call an Abreu trade impossible, but it'd have to be the kind of deal that helps the team complete a piece of the rebuild.
With Chris Sale, the Sox aimed to turn one star into two (Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech). They used Adam Eaton to overhaul their pitching depth (Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dane Dunning). Jose Quintana gave them an elite and highly projectable bat they'd been missing (Eloy Jimenez), with a high-upside kicker (Dylan Cease). As good as Abreu is, he doesn't strike me as a guy who gets that kind of signature return -- not as his salary, nor a position where the league has been content to cut corners. If the Sox can't get more than one top-50 prospect, they might consider it trading for trading's sake.
Then again, it's probably best to assess Abreu's meaning to the team when Moncada hasn't just exploded for six RBIs.
