Dylan Cease entered the year with some of his prospect stock diminished. It wasn't anything he did, but more what he hadn't yet done. Namely, he had yet to pitch 100 innings in any of his three pro seasons.
He had a valid excuse, undergoing Tommy John surgery after he was drafted by the Cubs in the sixth round back in 2014. But his age-21 season ended with him getting scratched from starts in low-A due to shoulder fatigue, so it made sense to make him re-validate some of his top-100 membership cards.
He's building a strong foundation in this regard. Connor McKnight had singled him out in the latest episode of the Sox Machine Podcast, wasting no time when Josh asked him about the one player who had been undercovered. Starting at the 21:35 mark:
Dylan Cease. Dylan Cease. Dylan Cease. Dylan Cease. I feel like the "Chappelle Show" sketch -- Dylan, Dylan, Dylan, Dylan and Dylan. Josh, I had not had a chance to see Dylan Cease pitch. Last season, working, I looked at a little bit of tape, and that's all well and good, but you know how those MiLB cameras can get fuzzy and you're looking through a screen and all that.
Man, that's some serious stuff. I was talking with some folks in the White Sox scouting department and video department about his breaking ball and what it does and how he throws it, and the fastball and where he locates it. I was taken aback by the stuff he has. I have no idea if that's a body that can hold up to a starting rotation. I have no clue. But my God is the stuff rotation-worthy. It is a top-tier kind of arsenal. I was shocked. I was really impressed by what he's able to throw.
Cease lived up to that billing in his first spring start against Oakland on Monday. He threw two scoreless innings against Oakland's everyday lineup, fanning four while allowing a hit and two walks. He struck out the side -- Dustin Fowler, Khris Davis and Matt Olson -- in the first, then Bruce Maxwell in the second.
The game wasn't broadcast, but the White Sox have video behind home plate, and you could see how hitters reacted to his stuff.
Cease recorded his first two strikeouts with the fastball, and the other two with the curve, including a big breaker that locked up Olson. He's now up to 3⅓ scoreless innings over his first two spring outings, and he's encouraged by the development.
"I just wanted to be relaxed. Relaxed with my body and attack and not over think it," the 22-year-old said. "I felt very relaxed out there. Felt like I could have kept going, which is always a good sign."
Cease's profile confounds the prospect rankers. He fell off every top-100 list save MLB.com's ... where he was No. 61. That disparity is probably more indicative of his current state than some kind of consensus low-90s ranking. The majority vote says he's outside the top 100, which reflects his body of work, while the MLB list tells you what he could be if he can get through an entire season without restrictions.
That's basically what Keith Law said about Cease:
Dylan Cease was a top-100 prospect while in the Cubs' system but saw his stuff fall off enough last year, his first time throwing more than 50 innings in a pro season, to bump his projection down a full grade or so. He has hit triple-digit velocity in the past but pitches more at 95-98 mph, with an above-average curveball and average mid-80s changeup. His fastball is very straight, and his command of all three pitches is still grade 40. However, he has barely pitched at all as a pro -- since Tommy John surgery in 2014, he has thrown 162 total innings, more than half of that last year -- and there might be a lot more growth here, given his lack of experience.
Given that endurance -- both in-season and in-start -- is the biggest question he faces in 2018, there probably won't be many immediate corrections to his status no matter how he comes out of the gate. If he's freezing MLB hitters with his curveball in the desert, he shouldn't have a problem posting preposterous peripherals at Winston-Salem.
The issue is whether he can do so while pitching every fifth day, and pitching beyond the fifth inning. So while he might generate some early excitement, it's going to take a good five months to figure out what role he might play in this White Sox rebuild.
