Ozzie Guillen considered shutting down Mark Buehrle for the season. Instead, he gave Buehrle a chance to redeem himself in the nightcap of the doubleheader against the Cleveland Indians.
Buehrle went out on a high note. He threw six shutout innings in an outing devoid of drama, beating Justin Masterson and his 12 strikeouts in a tidy two-hour, two-minute affair.
Bad August aside -- and that's always the case -- Buehrle has lived up to the first half of his four-year, $56 million contract:
W | L | ERA | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | |
| 2008 | 15 | 12 | 3.79 | 34 | 218.2 | 240 | 106 | 92 | 22 | 52 | 140 |
| 2009 | 13 | 10 | 3.84 | 33 | 213.1 | 222 | 97 | 91 | 27 | 45 | 105 |
| Total | 28 | 22 | 3.81 | 67 | 432 | 462 | 203 | 183 | 49 | 97 | 245 |
His ERA+ was 119 before his Wednesday start, so it's probably 120-122 now, which puts him squarely at his career average, as well. Factor in the relatively low amount of unearned runs (he's usually in double-digits), and Buehrle has given the Sox exactly what they expected -- even if he does it in a streaky fashion.
On the other hand, it should be said that his 10-and-5 rights kick on July 16, 2010. Some of you -- okay, maybe just Striker -- are jonesing to deal a starter because the Sox might have a sixth in Daniel Hudson, perish the thought.
Well, Buehrle would be the most expendable.
His trade value isn't astronomical in this economy, since the team trading him would have to pay him an extra $1 million for each of the next two seasons and a third year at $15 million, too. But it's definitely good enough to acquire a quality cost-controlled corner outfielder.
When you look at his fastball velocity and strikeout rate, his best days are behind him. That's no knock on Buehrle; he's just not going to rival his 2004-05 self, so the Sox wouldn't be trading away a force.
Still, it's nearly impossible to see it happen for a couple of reasons.
For one, trading Buehrle would be a blow to a fanbase that is a sensitive subject for the organization. It would be equally upsetting to the Buehrles -- unless he were traded to St. Louis -- since he gave the Sox an easy deal in terms of timing and, well, terms. (Hell, I'd be as furious as I get -- not very, but still -- and I understand it perfectly.)
Even factoring out the emotional aspect, it's hard to see Kenny Williams robbing Peter to pay Paul. Baseball Prospectus said:
It needs to be noted, though, that the White Sox put up a .518 team Support-Neutral Winning Percentage, which ranked second in the American League. This suggests that White Sox starting pitching was doing its job better than all four playoff teams' rotations in the junior circuit.
It's hard to see Williams denting his true strength when he wouldn't be guaranteed to improve the offense. He's acquired solid hitters in each of the last two seasons, only to watch them tank.
The Sox had a similar situation on their hands a couple years ago. With the Sox coming off a losing season, Paul Konerko was set to become a 10-and-5 guy a month into the 2008 season. The Sox had a similar amount of incentive to deal Konerko as they would Buehrle, because getting out from under the three years and $36 million left on his contract would be valuable in and of itself. They also risked losing a favorite of Ozzie Guillen and Jerry Reinsdorf.
The impending no-trade protection didn't pressure Williams enough, apparently. He stuck with Konerko, and we can't say it's cost him. We'll probably see the same play out with Buehrle and the rest of the Sox rotation, and rightly so if Williams still wants to win now.
At the end of the season, Buehrle will go back to Missouri and begin an arm-strengthening program, which will be new to him. He's taken Don Cooper's "Johnny Condition-Guy" comment to heart, apparently, and hopefully it won't upset his natural balance, because we're halfway through his deal, and nobody can complain.
Plus, if you look at it another way, the Sox could be well beyond the halfway point right now. If Buehrle can repeat his 2009 season in 2010, he'll effectively turn 2011 into a bonus round.
Here's my thinking: Reinsdorf would've only signed Buehrle to a three-year deal if they had their druthers. In that world, Buehrle would be up for another costly extension after 2010, which would be frought with peril for a soft-tosser.
But if No. 56 has another Buehrlesque show in 2010, it comes at no additional cost. Instead, it gives the Sox one more year to see if and when the Decline Monster will take a bite out of Buehrle. If 2011 is the year he hits the wall, then so be it.
Buehrle's contract is a lot like A.J. Pierzynski's extension, in that it's worth a lot more to the Sox than anyone else. There's nothing wrong with that, because in a utopian state, a team should only sign players for itself.
Let's step out of the hypothetical now, because that's basically what this entire exercise is. Buehrle's no-trade clause might kick in come July, but it almost took effect after his perfect game.
