PREAMBLE
I see the Sox as a team with pronounced strengths and pronounced weaknesses. With some important prospects on the way and the long-term roles of some major league pieces still TBD, I think the best way to approach next season is shore up obvious weaknesses and wait for more data on everything else. We'll know a lot more about Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Sean Burke, Davis Martin, and others in July.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Miguel Vargas: Tender
- Brenton Doyle: Tender
- Joey Bart: Non-tender
- Huascar Brazobán: Tender
- Jordan Leasure: Non-tender
- Chris Murphy: Non-tender
Vargas is an easy call. Doyle and Brazoban are worth another look at these numbers (just barely). I would try to resign Leasure and Murphy to minor league deals.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jake Rogers
Newcomb was so good that he has probably priced himself out of comfortable range, and I'd rather the Sox put their money toward an established starter. Grichuk has earned a nice deal but I have other ideas for DH. I wouldn't hate signing Fedde if he's hanging around the market at the end of the winter, but the Sox have enough 6th starter type bulk arms that he shouldn't be Plan A. Meanwhile, in a weak catching market, Rogers suits me as cheap insulation against more Drew Romo.
FREE AGENTS
No.1: SP Michael King (3 yrs / $99 million -- opt out after year 2).
The Sox need a starter for the top of their rotation more than anything else, and aside from Skubal, King is the best on the market. There are enough questions about him that I don't think he'll break the bank, so the Sox could snag him on a relatively short-term deal. The big risk here is his plummeting strikeout rate, but I still like him better than the rest of the market. And Jerry can keep bragging to his friends that he's never given out a $100 million contract.
No.2: DH Luis Arraez (1 yr / $18 million)
Arraez was great for San Francisco and medicore for the Phillies last year, but it all evened out to a pretty typical season for him. He hit .310 and struck out 4% of the time, which makes him a perfect compliment to the Sox many low average, high K big swingers. I see him replacing Grichuk in a DH combo with Benintendi, but his defensive metrics were much improved in 2025, so he can also backup Meidroth and Murakami.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade C Edgar Quero and 1B Anthony DePino to Boston for P Brayan Bello
Bello faceplanted in the starting rotation after signing a $50 million contract extension, but he was quietly very nasty out of the bullpen toward the end of the season, with a 1.98 ERA and a ton of ground balls. He would get a chance to win the 5th starter job, but I can see him being equally useful replacing Newcomb in Will Venable's army of swingmen.
SUMMARY
By my back of the napkin math, I think I came in about $8 million over budget, but the playoff tickets should more than cover that. I see no need to rush into an extension for Mune or a decision on Colson before the season starts; maintaining optionality should be one of the big lessons that Chris Getz learned from Rick Hahn's failures.
Here's my projected roster, which should be plenty good enough to compete in the AL Central:
C Kyle Teel
1B Munetaka Murakami
2B Chase Meidroth
3B Miguel Vargas
SS Colson Montgomery
OF Tristan Peters
OF Braden Montgomery
OF Sam Antonacci
DH Luis Arraez
C Jake Rogers
IF Brooks Baldwin
OF Brenton Doyle
DH Andrew Benintendi
SP Michael King
SP Sean Burke
SP Davis Martin
SP Anthony Kay
SP Luis Castillo (on very thin ice)
RP [open competition]
RP [open competition]
RP Bryan Bello
RP Huascar Brazoban
RP Bryan Hudson
RP Jordan Hicks
RP Hagen Smith
RP Grant Taylor
