EP’s Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

I see a successful team past "rebuild" as the foundation is laid and now in the "build" mode, which I see as sort of a "stay the course, add key pieces, but don't go into full buyer mode yet, for a number of reasons... The lockout will mean a weird 2027 season so there is room for players to continue to progress/develop but with a shorter window of game action to do so -- which I will show how it benefits them to stay the course rather than spend like they are World Series contenders just yet.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

• Miguel Vargas: Tender
• Brenton Doyle: Tender
• Joey Bart: Non-tender
• Huascar Brazobán: Tender
• Jordan Leasure: Non-tender
• Chris Murphy: Non-tender

Brazo - at $1.6 mil, we gave up capital for him and as a GM, I would want to have the faith that our staff can fix his issues to prove me correct, especially since I can't say yet that I "won" any of the trades at the deadline yet. Getting guys with control means I intended to keep them around and I want to be proved right in my acquisition... but if he struggles out of the gate, DFA him and it doesn't cost us much. A FA reliever would be more expensive

Vargas - no explanation needed. I'm offering him more though to eat contract years in 2028 if he proves 2026 was not a fluke and performs well again ($12-$15 mil annual value then).

Doyle - excellent defense and showed his offense can be fixed. Perfect platoon and one less position to fill in the outfield (also, again, want to be proven right about the deal at the deadline like with Brazoban)

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Love Fedde and Newcomb but Nuke will want to start somewhere and command more $. Hagen Smith proved he could replace that role. Fedde deserves a raise but I'm working with the contracts I made already. Wish Fedde and Kay's situations were switched but we do need to let other RHPs get the innings and prove themselves as trade assets or future core pieces (Sandlin, Thorpe, Shane Smith maybe). Fedde in a bulk role also means Grant Taylor or even Sandlin get less opportunities in bulk

Grichuk is here, loves the team, and probably carries the best value of anyone who would be available for LF. I dont believe there is a FA outfielder who would be worth spending $ on who won't want to start everyday, leaving Antonacci with less ABs.

FREE AGENTS

ONE FA Starting Pitcher (because we don't want to block a potential of Hagen Smith, Grant Taylor or Noah Schultz all having a chance as starters in the next 1-2 years)

• ONE bullpen arm (the above names could all be bullpen options for 2027 before fully getting their chance as a starter in 2028)

Tier 1: Offer 4 years at $32-35 million annually to Freddy Peralta or Michael King
Tier 1a: Nick Martinez (if he declines his option with TB) -- 3 years, $30 million annually

Tier 2 Targets: below ordered by preference, sign whoever I can get for 2 years at $15 million annually or less with a mutual option for a 3rd year

1. Brady Singer
2. Tyler Mahle
3. Casey Mize

Bullpen: Need one high leverage arm. We seem to have an abundance of RH relievers but I would not pass up on Bryan Abreu. If a closer like Ryan Fairbanks or Jason Adam are available, I try either of them, but I actually think the bigger concern is LHP if we dont have Newcomb and Hudson shows he can't be the same guy from the first 2/3 of 2026. Hagen would be my only reliable bullpen arm and he isn't an 8th/9th inning guy and wouldn't be in the bullpen plan for 2028, so we need to address a LH reliever now

Bryan Abreu (RHP) for high leverage arm who could be a closer option -- 3 years, $12 million annually

Adrian Morejon (LHP) -- 3 years, $15 million annually (unlikely)

Brock Burke (LHP) -- 2 years, $7 million annually (Illinois native with strong numbers for CIN last year)

TRADES

Trade Benintendi (eat $5 million) to a team trying to raise the salary floor. Include a top 40 prospect and cash to get an even lower prospect back.

This would allow us the room (with the $130 mil budget) to go for a top starter and a good value reliever, while also increasing Vargas' contract, providing slight pay bumps to keep Grichuk ($3.5 mi) and in arbitration to Bart ($2.9 mil) and Doyle

No other trades really in the off-season unless we really can't get one of my FA target starters. If we can't get one of the Top tier 1 guys on my list then maybe explore a Reid Detmers or Sandy Alcantara deal involving Billy Carlson and other top 30 propsects (maybe Sandlin or McDougal + one more?)

Not trading for a reliever. If we can't get one of the bullpen guys I mentioned in free agency then I'd rather not trade prospects for bullpen help when we have options who can provide multiple innings out of the bullpen while competing for future starting jobs (Schultz, Sandlin, H. Smith, Taylor, S. Smith).

SUMMARY

Position Players:

1. Teel
2. Bart (tendered)
3. Murakami
4. Meidroth
5. C. Montgomery
6. Vargas (tendered)
7. Antonacci
8. Grichuk (re-signed)
9. Peters
10. Doyle (tendered)
11. B. Montgomery
12. Murray (utility INF/LF)
13. Baldwin (utility INF/OF)

Starters:

1. Nick Martinez (think he would be the best "bold, yet not super long term commitment"-type pick if he declines his TB option)
2. S. Burke
3. Martin
4. Castillo
5. Schultz (LH) -- rotating 5th starter spot

Bullpen:
6. Kay (LH)
7. H. Smith (LH)
8. Brock Burke (LH)
9. Hudson (LH)
10. Taylor
10. Hicks
11. Brazoban
12. Davis
13. Berroa (Vasil if lockout means he will be ready when season starts)

Our 2026 team made the playoffs with the Schweitzers, Tyler Davis types and if we get Prelander Berroa back healthy, Mike Vasil, etc., I think we can re-evaluate the bullpen at the trade deadline. I think with one starter and one relief addition, we can keep the core intact.

I'm also a believer that the 2027 season, if shortened to 100-132 games, could provide an interesting situation for us as the schedule will be pretty compact and there will be less "ramp up time" for starters to go from a shortened spring training to 4-innings, 5-innings, 6-innings, but our staff is already built with guys who go 3-5 innings right now, so what if we had a "variable" rotation where Hagen, Grant, Sandlin, Schultz, Kay, and others are getting not necessarily a bullpen game but a rotation of "who is freshest? You get 4-5 innings today as our 5th starter" then go through our normal 1-4 starters, as we see the occasional 1-inning bullpen appearance from those guys above, then on the 5th rotation spot we get the same "who's fresh?" Or "You've done well your last couple of 1-2 innings apps so here's a 4-inning start. Go longer if you can". A guy like Sandlin or Schultz may start in AAA simply because you can't keep that many natural starters all in the majors, so giving him legit innings in Charlotte again will allow us to refresh the big club's bullpen when needed while also ensuring his development. Same could be said if Shane Smith or Drew Thorpe return to form.

This could be an interesting way -- during a year when a compact schedule could burn out normal pitching staffs -- for us to continuously keep guys fresh while giving them an opportunity to stretch themselves out as potential starters in a full 162 game season in 2028/beyond.

I do have an interesting plan for the trade deadline to land a major starting pitcher, so I want to see what another year of development can do for our core group and see what kind of jumps our prospects can make.

At the 2027 deadline, if these conditions exist:

• Meidroth has a similar or slightly better season than 2026
• Antonacci proves he would still be a more valuable 2B than a LF
• We see decent progress from some of our current top 30 prospects, including increased trade value from Tanner McDougal, Oppor, Bergolla, Shelton, etc...
• The Pittsburgh Pirates are sellers at the deadline and we are buyers looking to win the AL Central
• Paul Skenes has a bounce back year (maybe not as good as past years but better than 2026)

Then we make a massive trade for Paul Skenes, because Pittsburgh knows this would be the best time to deal him to get the most value.

CWS get Paul Skenes. PIT receive:

• Meidroth OR Antonacci (preferably Meidroth)
• One of Noah Schultz or David Sandlin
• Tanner McDougal or Oppor or or one of the three pitchers we drafted in the top five rounds of 2026 draft)
• 1-2 of Bergolla, Mogollon, Shelton, DePino, Lodise, etc., maybe Wolkow but would rather not
• An additional lower end prospect like a Zavala, Albertus or Marcelo Alcala

Don't know if the Pirates would want Billy Carlson because they have Konnor Griffin but having him included could help take 1-2 of those other big names above off.

Would you rather overspend to try to win the world series in 2027 (when we still dont know exactly what we have here with this group) or set yourself up to be a dynasty for the next decade? That's my thinking. Patiently aggressive, work smarter not harder kind of thought process...