For better or worse during his White Sox spring debut on Tuesday, Anthony Kay came in hot.
He averaged 95.3 mph with both his four-seamer and sinker, and his fastest pitch was clocked at 96.8 mph, a velocity Statcast hadn't clocked him at since 2021. That pitch also hit Julio Rodríguez to load the bases with nobody out for Josh Naylor, a second consecutive free base thanks to a lot of east-west spray.
Somehow, Kay managed to get Naylor to ground into a double play to limit the damage to one run, and he was able to come out for a second inning and complete that one as well, even if it featured a second walk.
"You could tell from the first inning that I was just a little too fired up to be out there," Kay said about his first stateside appearance after pitching the previous two seasons for NPB's Yokohama Bay Stars. "I think once I took a deep breath, I was able to settle in, things were better, so I'll try to relax a little bit earlier next time."
It'll take a bit of time to see which one of his fastballs comes to the fore; if he has to hunt for as many ground balls as possible like he did in Japan, or has more opportunities to sneak high heat above American swing paths. At least Kay's performance made it easier to understand that the pitcher the White Sox signed for two years and $12 million has the kind of velocity that gives him a little more margin for error than the typical crafty lefty.
As long as Kay remains as advertised, he can be penciled into a rotation that looks largely settled even though everybody involved possesses a track record that's at least one year short of "reliable." The more interesting debate involves season-opening assignments for scads of pitchers underneath. Charlotte's potential rotation looks particularly stuffed, even though guys like Drew Thorpe, Ky Bush and Mason Adams are still months away from joining the fray after recovering from their Tommy John surgeries.
This is not a problem and shouldn't be phrased as such at any point, given the way all those elbow issues eradicated the White Sox's sixth-starter depth and required them to set all alerts and notifications to the opposite of "silent" on their waiver wire apps. Perhaps there's another spate of injuries that reduces the redundancies this time around, so penciling in rotations is premature.
Right now, the conversation is more akin to idly spinning a Rubik's cube than racing Grant Taylor to see who gets the sides in place the fastest. Should the options remain intact, it'll be fun to watch for maneuvers that hint at how the White Sox will go about solving this particular puzzle.
Here's the lay of the land five games into Cactus League play.
Locks for Chicago, more or less:
- Shane Smith
- Davis Martin
- Anthony Kay
- Erick Fedde
Fedde is the shakiest of the group, and his $1.5 million signing will be easy to write off if his 2026 looks like the last 3½ months of his 2025, but he's been spoken about as a starter. As he should, even if it's mostly because there isn't room for a long-relief fallback on this particular roster.
No options remaining
- Sean Newcomb
While Jordan Hicks initially entered the White Sox organization in an open-ended role, he told James this week that he's relegated to relief, which is a sensible outcome for all involved. That leaves Newcomb as a guy who is required to be on the roster in one form or another and is competing for a starting job. In fact, he's starting Thursday, and while he personally doesn't figure to factor into Charlotte's plans himself, this is where a squeeze is likely to begin.
Options remaining
- Sean Burke
- Jonathan Cannon
- Mike Vasil
Vasil also hasn't been ruled out of any rotation plans, although his spring debut probably didn't have anybody revising the depth chart just yet. Assuming the likely starters remain healthy and the likely relievers don't do enough to change Will Venable's mind, it wouldn't be surprising if a Burke-Cannon rematch settled the last musical chair.
Ended last year in Triple-A
- Noah Schultz
- Duncan Davitt
- David Sandlin
- The Murphy Group
There's a chance that Schultz could start the year at a lower level -- or even extended spring training -- if they're easing him back into a starting routine after battling patellar tendinitis, but they promoted him to Charlotte despite less than stellar command last year, and he logged five largely unsuccessful starts around an IL stint there, so they haven't yet shown an urge to protect him from a harsh home field.
Davitt logged 25 starts and 134⅔ innings at Double-A over the previous two seasons, and Charlotte's cozier environs and tougher lefties will answer the questions about his arsenal's efficacy a lot more efficiently. Sandlin earned a promotion to Triple-A over the course of the 2025 season with Boston, although only one of his 15 appearances with Worcester was a start, as they shifted him to relief to close out his season.
Shane Murphy couldn't have pitched any better with Birmingham, unless you think a 1.38 ERA is somehow inflated. The White Sox waited as long as possible to promote him to Charlotte, though, and he topped out at an even 89 mph in his first Cactus League appearance, which ended with a lefty-lefty Zac Veen walk-off homer that traveled 468 feet, so there's a chance it just doesn't work at higher levels.
Chris Murphy was a starter for most of his minor league career before Tommy John surgery, and he's one of many, many, many pitchers the Sox haven't ruled out stretching out, even if an up-and-down relief/swingman role is both more likely and seemingly what Murphy is anticipating.
Bided time in Birmingham
- Hagen Smith
- Tanner McDougal
- Riley Gowens
- Tyler Schweitzer
The White Sox have slow-rolled the start of Smith's spring, so it stands to reason that they could be similarly restrained with his season-opening assignment. Conversely, McDougal came out touching 100 mph in his first Cactus League appearance, and coming off 120 innings in 2025 including 17 starts at Birmingham, so he's roaring into 2026 in Kool-Aid Man Mode.
Gowens has thrown 39 starts and 183⅔ innings of 3.28 ERA ball at Birmingham over the last two seasons, and Schweitzer also has a pair of Southern League rings thanks to his contributions with the Barons. The difference is that Schweitzer got lit up with the Knights around a second successful Southern League stint, while Gowens hasn't yet been afforded the opportunity to skate or die at Truist Field. Both have platoon concerns that could make the Sox more willing to shove them into relief in response to overcrowding.
Wild card
- Austin Voth
Voth jetted to Japan after a decent season in Seattle's bullpen because he wanted to start, and after a successful 125 innings with the Chiba Lotte Marines in 2025, he wanted an organization that would offer him a chance to crack a major league rotation. Given the logjam of potential swingmen, it's hard to see how the White Sox were his best opportunity, but unlike the most MLB-ready swingmen in this field, he should be the most stretched out. If he doesn't win a job outright, the Sox might still want him at the ready, especially if his contract contains an opt-out date.
So in this world where everybody's healthy and resembling their expected forms entering the 2026 season, it's fun to put forth a guess about Chad Pinder's initial five-man rotation, if only to count all the permutations after everybody's had their say. I considered eight names before settling on Voth, McDougal, Sandlin, Davitt and Cannon, and will be happy if I shoot 60 percent from the field.
