2025 MLB Draft Report: College pitchers continue to impress

We are due for a significant adjustment in draft prospect rankings since the college season is halfway over, and the National High School Invitational (NHSI) starts today at Team USA headquarters in Cary, N.C. Corona High School is making the trip and scouts will be lined up to see right-handed pitcher Seth Hernandez, shortstop Billy Carlson, and infielder Brady Ebel. All three could go in the first round, and there’s some Top 5 consideration for both Hernandez and Carlson. 

In college baseball, this past weekend featured two great pitcher vs. hitter matchups: Florida State left-handed pitcher Jamie Arnold against Wake Forest shortstop Marek Houston and Tennessee left-handed pitcher Liam Doyle against Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette. We'll get to that in a bit, but let's just say the top college pitchers continue demonstrating that they are ahead of the hitters in 2025. 

After NHSI and another round of NCAA conference play, we’ll be ready to update the Sox Machine Top 50 prospect list. From there, we can readjust the watch board and start peeking at options for the second round. 

Baseball America Staff Mock 1.0

The Baseball America staff published its first mock draft, and Pick 10 had Carlson going to the White Sox. That would be a fantastic get for the White Sox, as Carlson has earned rave reviews about his defense at shortstop thanks to his throwing arm and athleticism.  

This NHSI tournament is significant for Carlson because there are still questions about his future hitting potential. If scouts are confident that Carlson has enough in-game power to hit 20 or more home runs in the majors, he has the makings to go first overall. In 14 games, Carlson is hitting .378/.547/.703 with three doubles and three home runs. 

Liam Doyle vs. Jace LaViolette

The Chicago White Sox had two front-office executives watching Texas A&M and Tennessee square off in Knoxville this Friday night. Director of Player Personal Gene Watson and Special Advisor Jim Thome watched Liam Doyle and Jace LaViolette battle. They saw a lot to like from Tennessee players as the Volunteers combined to no-hit and 10-run rule Texas A&M in seven innings.

Doyle was again electric with the fastball but more eager to mix in his slider early in the start. According to the ESPN TV gun, the Doyle's four-seamer was hitting 98 mph early, and sitting at 95 mph after pitch 80. One batter in, Doyle froze the Aggies' leadoff hitter on a backdoor slider, perfectly located on the outside corner. It got me wondering: If the White Sox had Doyle in their system today, would Brian Bannister have him start working on a cutter? 

Against LaViolette, Doyle tried to beat him upstairs with a couple of 98 mph fastballs, but the pitches sailed out of the zone. After tangling to a full count, LaViolette whiffed on Doyle's 90 mph slider located at the knees. It was the most confident I'd seen Doyle with his breaking stuff, as it was just enough change of pace to keep A&M hitters off-balance all night. 

Doyle went six hitless innings on 96 pitches, piling up eight strikeouts while allowing two walks. With 81 punchouts on the season, Doyle is second in NCAA behind Southeastern Louisiana senior Brennan Stuprich and needs just four strikeouts in his next start to surpass his season total last year with Ole Miss. Opposing hitters are batting .162/.257/.250 against Doyle, and his strikeout rate is very similar to that of Hagen Smith last year. 

Keep an eye on Dean Curley

Tennessee second baseman Gavin Kilen is dealing with a hamstring injury he suffered on March 18 against East Tennessee State, and it has limited him to just one pinch-hit at-bat since. That forced Coach Tony Vitello to move Manny Marin over to second base and start playing Ariel Antigua at shortstop, and Dean Curley was pushed over to third base. In Game 2 of the Saturday doubleheader, Curley got time playing second base. Many think the hot corner will be Curley’s eventual landing spot when turning pro, but I think it would be worthwhile to keep him at shortstop to see if he can adapt to a quicker game. I’m not crazy about Curley’s throwing arm, as many plays consistently come low to first base. It’s like he’s short-arming the throw, but I think there’s an opportunity to improve his accuracy. 

The big draw for Curley is his offensive potential. Last year, Curley hit 12 home runs and 10 doubles with a slash line of .285/.386/.502 in 67 games, and he went 6-for-12 in the College World Series. Batting leadoff for the Volunteers, Curley is hitting .320/.440/.582 in 32 games with nine home runs. 

Curley has demonstrated a disciplined approach at the plate and is willing to work counts. His swing is more level than uppercut, which results in him being more of a gap-to-gap line-drive hitter than pulling for a big fly ball. Not that Curley can’t be more of a pull hitter, but for this Tennessee offense, he’s being asked to be the table setter. 

If Curley weren’t eligible for the 2025 draft, I’d point to his need to improve the ground-ball rate (45.5 percent) and continue cutting down his strikeouts (16 percent) to merit a top-five ranking for the 2026 draft. But with many college bats seemingly taking a step backward this season, interest in Curley continues to rise. He’s a proven performer on the biggest stage and has position flexibility in the infield. 

LaViolette and Texas A&M get the last laugh

After Tennessee embarrassed A&M Friday night, the Aggies were 1-9 in SEC play and 14-15 overall. There would still be time to recover and make Regionals, but the climb would have been arduous. Good on them to come motivated as they swept the doubleheader to pick up a key road series win against one of the top teams in the country. 

LaViolette had a big home run in Game 1 and went 2-for-5 with three runs scored in Game 2. A&M then 10-run-ruled Tennessee in Game 2, and combined to outscore the Vols 26-9 in the two games. LaViolette is beginning to pick up the hitting pace, as he's now hitting .294/.451/.633 with 10 home runs in 32 games. 

Jamie Arnold vs. Marek Houston

Unfortunately, ESPN didn't put the Wake Forest and Florida State games on demand for later viewing. Only highlights from Jamie Arnold's 10-strikeout performance are on Twitter. I was interested in seeing how Arnold attacked Marek Houston. In three plate appearances, Arnold got the best of Houston as Wake Forest's shortstop went 0-for-3. The first at-bat was a groundout to the shortstop, followed by two strikeouts. For the first K, Arnold fell behind in the count 3-0 before fighting back to get Houston to whiff on a full count. In his last batter faced, Arnold got Houston to miss on a high slider. 

Arnold needed the bounce-back performance because he struggled on the road at Miami and Notre Dame. In those two combined starts, Arnold only pitched 8⅔ innings, allowing eight earned runs while walking seven and striking out just six. At home, Arnold went five scoreless innings, racking up his first 10-strikeout game of 2025. 

If you haven't seen Arnold, he is a sidearm left-handed pitcher with a funky delivery that generates a lot of deception. His fastball hasn't been overwhelming, reaching 93 mph, but the spin he generates on his slider makes life very difficult for opposing hitters. In 2025, there seems to be a control issue, as Arnold's walk rate is approaching 10 percent while his strikeout rate remains similar to last year. Doyle has been better than Arnold if we judge purely on pitching performance. 

When Arnold left the game, Houston found some success, as he had a clutch RBI single to tie the game last Friday. In the next two games, Houston went a combined 2-for-10 with one walk, but Wake Forest won. Just like A&M, Wake Forest picked up a huge road series win that will help their campaign in hosting a Regional. 

In ACC play, Houston is batting .318/.405/.621 with five homers and 23 RBIs, many of which came against Notre Dame in early March. In his last seven games, Houston is 4-for-29 (.138 AVG) with 12 strikeouts to six walks. Sometimes, we learn a lot when a player is on the struggle bus. Hopefully, ESPN and ACC Network will allow us to revisit Houston's past performances.

News and Notable Performances

• The Athletic's Keith Law reported that Wake Forest outfielder Ethan Conrad will miss the rest of 2025 with a shoulder injury. Ranked 28th in the Preseason Top 50, Conrad batted .372/.495/.744 with seven home runs and eight doubles in 21 games. While the numbers are nice, I’m skeptical of their ability to translate, as Conrad’s line drive rate was below 10 percent, and the flyball rate was an astronomical 45.3 percent. It’s a swing that was trying to take advantage of the hitter-friendly confines in Wake Forest. Now we’ll wait and see how teams in the late first round judge Conrad.
• After a lackluster start against Long Beach State, Tyler Bremner put together his best start of 2025 last Friday, striking out 10 batters against UC Davis. Throwing 114 pitches, Bremner’s workload is beginning to increase, but some of the top-five pick luster has shone off.
• The pitching duel between LSU's Kade Anderson and Oklahoma's Kyson Witherspoon was a fun watch. Then it got a little uneasy when LSU coach Jay Johnson pushed Anderson to 135 pitches. It’s a fantastic stat line, with 14 strikeouts in a complete-game shutout. While I get the argument that college pitchers are allowed extra rest from such a heavy workload, I can’t help but wonder what happens next for Anderson. He entered 2025 as the 49th-ranked prospect in the Sox Machine Top 50 and is having a great season with a 6-0 record and 2.85 ERA. I’d hate to hear that Anderson is dealing with arm fatigue or worse after such a heavy workload in early April. Witherspoon took the loss as he went six innings, allowing two earned runs and striking out four. The four doubles allowed didn’t help, but Witherspoon held his own on the road against a very good LSU lineup. In eight starts, Witherspoon has thrown at least 90 pitches in each one, and his season max is 107 against Mississippi State on March 21. 

Games I’m Watching this Weekend

NHSI Tournament 

Corona vs. Casteel
Wednesday, April 9 - 3:00 PM CT 
On-Demand Stream

Prospects to Watch:

RHP Seth Hernandez
SS Billy Carlson
INF Brady Ebel

Wake Forest vs. North Carolina

Thursday - 6:00 PM CT
Friday - 5:00 PM CT
Saturday - 12:00 PM CT

Network: ACC Network

Prospects to Watch:

Wake Forest SS Marek Houston
North Carolina C Luke Stevenson

Oklahoma State vs. Arizona

Friday - 8:00 PM CT
Saturday - 8:00 PM CT
Sunday - 2:00 PM CT

Network: ESPN+

Prospects to Watch:

Arizona OF Brendan Summerhill
Oklahoma State OF Nolan Schubart