James had some questions about White Sox prospects, and farm director Paul Janish was game enough to answer them. Hopefully it's interesting, because the other two parts of of this series are running regardless.
This conversation has been mercifully edited for length, and also for clarity.
James Fegan: When I'm trying to discern the hit tool of a player I haven't watched before, there are output stats I wind up checking first -- in-zone contact rate, chase rate, etc. Obviously with Braden Montgomery never playing pro ball before means we don't have any of that. But after he dealt with some higher strikeout rates in college, what gives you confidence about his hit tool?
Paul Janish: I think you have to bake in the makeup piece, because he's been really intentional too with conveying how he wants to continue to get better.
Fixing swing-and-miss or fixing a chase rate, those things are hard and they don't typically happen overnight. The want to continue to get better is a big piece for players who do have relative success.
We're going to have to wait and see how he adjusts to higher-level off-speed stuff. That's going to be a pretty big thing for him to experience and adjust to. When he touches the ball, if you watch him take BP, it's real power. He can hit the ball out from both sides of the plate, and to the back side. But it's the way that he works. If you see him in the cage, you'll see him take deep breaths and really try to recalibrate if he gets a swing or two that he's not happy with. Some of those context clues are why I like the concept of him having success over time, with the understanding that he hasn't played a professional game.
I talk about this a lot with our guys is not wanting to get to the big leagues, but wanting to be a productive major league player. He's already got that baked in.
If and when he ever has the opportunity to have a really big payday relative to the major league level, I would feel comfortable betting on him on still wanting to be good, because he wants to be good. He's not playing for financial resources, that's going to be a product of the environment. That's what I would point to. It's a separator.
JF: Would it be fair to say that with Noah Schultz pitching on a five-day schedule for the first time and still filling out physically, and Hagen Smith entering his first full professional season, that your goals for them this year are less about on-field results, and more--
PJ: Abstract?
JF: They could easily dominate upper level minors competition this year and look like they're ready to help you in Chicago from an ability standpoint, but that probably not going to be what drives that timeline for you.
PJ: Super fair. I think both of those guys have exhibited that ability is not going to be the issue. That's 100 percent part of the equation is figuring out what gets them ready for next year and beyond, at the major league level specifically.
At the major league level, you want to be able to have them perform without any consideration of anything from a workload standpoint. And as you were talking about with Hagen, it's going to be his first full year. That's a big deal, man. He's got to get through that. Not to say he won't be in the big leagues this year, but all those things factor in.
JF: When I spoke to George Wolkow in August, he was singularly focused on trying to trim his chase rate. Which makes sense, right? It's how's he getting attacked every night and he's learning day-by-day how to adjust. But with the offseason and spring, does that offer a window to address some of mechanics behind his in-zone miss issues, or is that something that just comes via an enormous, growing 19-year-old becoming more coordinated with time and reps?
PJ: Awareness based on experience -- just reps, playing and getting at-bats is probably the most significant thing. The other thing for George specifically is that it's a blessing that he's realizing how little he has to do to still result in high exit velocities.
The discussions we're having with him, that'll be the thing over time that will continue to help him understand that efficiency for him is going to equate to really good things. That will give him the ability to make better decisions in the box, in the game. He's big and strong and he likes to try very hard at everything, and calming his mind a little bit with regards to how hard he has to swing, or how hard he perceives he's swinging, I think is one of the things that will help him over time. But at the end of the day, it's just reps. He's still just getting going. And he's very open to saying, 'What do I need to do to get better?' So you can talk to him about it. We don't have to hide the medicine with him.
I actually had this conversation with him, not that he's worried about moving levels, but I told him, 'You're one of the ones that has the good fortune of when you're ready, everyone's going to know it.'
I just really appreciate the way he allows us to have more big-picture conversations versus being real worried about which affiliate he's going to be at. When he gets good at what he needs to get good at, it's going to play anywhere.
JF: Chase Meidroth is a player statistical models really love because he doesn't chase outside the zone, and he doesn't miss pitches in the zone, which is a pretty flawless combination. But the scouting side tends to be more bearish him on the basis that hitters with this little demonstrated power traditionally struggle to make an impact against the highest level of pitching and defense. Where do you think he really fits between these viewpoints?
PJ: He does pretty much everything well on the field in terms of playing the game, and I saw him hit a homer to right field last week in live at-bats. We obviously are excited to have him, the models like him. The best way to say it is he's the kind of player that's not going to beat himself. Offensively, defensively, he's very reliable in all aspects of the game.
To a certain degree from a pure tools standpoint, you probably could draw it up a little bit better. But in really playing the game, both offensively and defensively and running the bases, he's really high-level.
The thing that sticks out to me was just his level of confidence, his comfort level. To be in major league camp for the first time and in a new organization, he takes everything in stride. That's something you can use as a precursor for how he's going to deal with the major league level and how he's going to deal with potential adversity. He's going to run into it at some point and I really like the prospect of him being able to adjust and deal with it.
JF: There are plenty of differences in these players, but Rikuu Nishida, Sam Antonacci, even Alexander Albertus are all on this spectrum of relying on very high-end contact rates to overcome a lack of power projection. Meidroth is the most advanced and highly rated, but do you see some potential under-the-radar value is seeing what this player type can do?
PJ: There's a variable there with position and where they fit. Because there's some leeway if it's a premium position or if the premium part of the defense is the versatility, if you play a bunch of different positions. But I do think the game is going that way a little bit in terms of valuing contact and balls in play and lengthening lineups from that standpoint, making pitchers work.
All those guys do that stuff well. Nishida for example, part of what he capitalizes on is putting the ball in play and then running really well, adding pressure to the defense. But we all know as you go up, the defense gets better, guys get more reliable. There's always going to be with that type of player who has success at the minor league level, but you have to acknowledge that's going to be harder to accomplish.
But to a certain degree with those guys, you've got to let them play until they don't play good. For all those guys in question, they've played well up to this point.
