Two signings in, the market for left-handed starting pitchers looks piping hot.
A day after the Los Angeles Angels signed Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million deal, the Dodgers upped the ante by signing Blake Snell for five years and $182 million, although it has a real feel of $160 million or so because around $60 million is deferred.
Both contracts topped FanGraphs' crowdsourced estimates, which put Kikuchi at three years and $54 million, and Snell for four years and $132 million.
Assuming the deal clears the physical, Snell ultimately escapes last year's free agency debacle unscathed. His two contracts will cover six years and $214 million paper, but even if you adjust it to $200 million or whatever due to the time value of money, it's still better than the reported best offer he received from the Yankees last winter, which was six years and $150 million.
From a White Sox perspective, the initial reaction is that this takes the Dodgers out of the running for Garrett Crochet. They had been targeting left-handed pitchers and showed considerable interest in Crochet at the deadline, but any need is a lot less pressing with Snell joining Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow. Throw in a potential Clayton Kershaw reunion along with on-hand options like Bobby Miller, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, and while there are always health concerns abound with this group ...
Every March: Man, the Dodgers have too many starting pitchers!
— Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) August 13, 2024
Every October 11: Man the Dodgers, who are down 2-1 to the five seed in the NLDS, are probably done if they can't get at least two innings from Joe Kelly tonight
... I'm not sure the Dodgers would be compelled to part with top prospects for such insurance, as valuable as it might be.
What the Snell signing could do is tilt the Crochet market in the direction of Boston, even though Bob Nightengale reported the Red Sox will be pivoting their focus to free agent Max Fried as well. The leading Boston prospects are position players, Buster Olney had previously identified the Red Sox as a top suitor for Crochet, and now Jon Heyman says the Red Sox were in on both Snell and Kikuchi.
On paper, it's a more sensible match than a potential Phillies trade Nightengale offered some names from a couple days ago, both of which are hard-pressed to match Crochet's star-level ceiling:
They have spoken about Bohm and outfield prospect Justin Crawford in extensive trade talks with the Chicago White Sox for starter Garrett Crochet, but the White Sox are concerned with Bohm’s struggles the second half, posting a .681 OPS with just four home runs.
Although Snell is now off the board, plenty of compelling free agent starters remain, including but not limited to Fried, Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea and Nathan Eovaldi. Reports from earlier this month said that the Red Sox were more likely to bolster the rotation through trade despite this depth, and the larger size of the winter's first pitching contracts makes Crochet's projected $2.9 million salary for 2025 all the more attractive.
Assuming consummate union man Lucas Giolito isn't interested in trying to swing a Harvard-Westlake discount for former high school teammates Fried and Flaherty, the path to a Crochet trade is considerably clearer than it was just a few days ago.
