Mark Buehrle’s Hall of Fame case survives another year
The Hall of Fame announced its Class of 2024, and Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton and Joe Mauer joining Jim Leyland as Cooperstown’s newest members this summer.
Mark Buehrle fell about 67 percent short of the 75-percent threshold, but he reached a fifth ballot in uncertain times, and that’s good enough for now.
Buehrle earned 8.3 percent of the vote in this cycle, which was down from the 10.9 percent he garnered in 2023, but more than the 7.4 percent that Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker showed before the BBWAA released the results. Just like Buehrle outperformed his ERA more often than not, he ends up beating his known vote percentage when the smoke clears.
There isn’t a path to 75 percent for Buehrle, but at least the backlog eases up a bit. Four spots on the 2025 ballot open up after the elections of Beltre, Helton and Mauer, along with the expiration of Gary Sheffield’s eligibility. Meanwhile, the 2025 ballot will only feature two presumptive Hall of Famers in Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia, and no first-ballot types in 2026.
The biggest danger is that Buehrle’s rรฉsumรฉ looks less impressive compared to Sabathia’s, and so voters lose their enthusiasm. However, if enough voters remain consistent, Buehrle’s case could strengthen by the starting pitchers who show up below him, because Buehrle had more going for him than Felix Hernรกndez, Jon Lester and Cole Hamels over the next three ballots. Voters shrugging at the best that half of MLB players have to offer year after year, being unmoved by both peak cases (Johan Santana) and career cases (Buehrle, et al), will inevitably require a recontextualization at some point.
As for the rest of the vote totals, here are the results for the players who cleared 5 percent. There were no close calls on the other side of the threshold, as Josรฉ Bautista and Victor Martรญnez both netted a half-dozen votes apiece, good for 1.6 percent.
Name | 2024 | Change | Year |
---|---|---|---|
Adriรกn Beltrรฉ | 95.1 | n/a | 1 |
Todd Helton | 79.7 | 7.5 | 6 |
Joe Mauer | 76.1 | n/a | 1 |
Billy Wagner | 73.8 | 5.7 | 9 |
Gary Sheffield | 63.9 | 8.9 | 10 |
Andruw Jones | 61.6 | 3.5 | 7 |
Carlos Beltrรกn | 57.1 | 10.6 | 2 |
Alex Rodrรญguez | 34.8 | -0.9 | 3 |
Manny Ramรญrez | 32.5 | -0.7 | 8 |
Chase Utley | 28.8 | n/a | 1 |
Omar Vizquel | 17.7 | -1.8 | 7 |
Bobby Abreu | 14.8 | -0.6 | 5 |
Jimmy Rollins | 14.8 | 1.9 | 3 |
Andy Pettitte | 13.5 | -3.5 | 6 |
Mark Buehrle | 8.3 | -2.5 | 4 |
Francisco Rodriguez | 7.8 | -3.0 | 2 |
Torii Hunter | 7.3 | 0.4 | 4 |
David Wright | 6.2 | n/a | 1 |
A handful of things that jump out to me:
Billy Wagner: While explaining his ballot, Sam Miller didn’t vote for Wagner, but he said that he wasn’t rooting against Wagner to make it, and he especially hoped Wagner didn’t miss by one vote. The good news is that Wagner missed by five, so no voter should feel especially guilty. The history of BBWAA voting and human nature suggests that he’ll get over the hump next year, because nobody wants to feel responsible for that level of disappointment.
Bobby Abreu: Todd Helton climbed all the way from 16.5 percent to gain entry into the Hall with four years to spare, but every year on the ballot featured significant jumps, the smallest being a 7.1 percent increase from 2021 to 2022. Abreu had a little bit of a breakthrough last year going from 8.6 percent to 15.4 percent, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll sustain it.
Andruw Jones: Jones had been experiencing those Heltonesque leaps, but after a 17 percent jump from 2022 to 2023, he only gained 3.5 percent this time around. He has three more chances to close the remaining gap, but between his lack of production after age 30, and the domestic violence charge he pleaded guilty to in 2012, there are baseball and character reasons to explain why the limits of his support might be lower than the traditional steady climber.
Carlos Beltrรกn: Some voters let Beltrรกn out of the penalty box for his role in the Astros’ trash can scheme after one year, but we’ll still probably need another cycle to see how many people still hold it against him.
Andy Pettitte: PED ties aside, Pettitte’s Hall of Fame case could best be described as Buehrle Plus because of the extensive postseason experience. His support also slid, so it’s tough sledding for every starting pitcher.
I hate that they seem to discard guys who fell off fast. People like Andruw Jones or Felix were absolute peak HoF tier and just cause they didn’t play for 20 years doesn’t mean you hold it against them. This is of course me assuming that Felix is going to need multiple years on the ballot to get in. Hell Felix should get in just for being the guy that finally broke the stranglehold wins and losses had on pitcher value.
Mauer fell off fast.
I’d be interested in knowing who made it to the Hall (within the initial ten years of eligibility) with the lowest first-year vote. Has anyone started with less than 10% and somehow garnered enough support to make it?
I’d definitely hold the cheating scandal against Beltran. There’s no way that anyone leading a team’s efforts at cheating should be immortalized. I know he wasn’t alone in leading those efforts, but unless you believe the participants of the Black Sox scandal should all be reinstated and eligible for the Hall, I don’t see how you can vote for someone whose offense was just as egregious.
There is a miles wide gap between Beltran and the Black Sox. Cheating to win and takinng money to tank are vastly difference. The game can only exist if both teams are competing to win. Tanking (or even the appearance of tanking) is an existential threat.
I disagree. Cheating on a team-wide scale wrecks the integrity of the game. Am I supposed to say that what they did was ok because they were trying to win? If I had my way, all of the players who took part would be banned and made ineligible for the Hall. MLB would never have made that big a move because the Astros had some of the game’s biggest stars, but they could have let the Astros have it and suspended the players; instead, it was complete immunity for testifying and a relatively light penalty against the organization for the biggest team scheme of this generation.
Every team cheats to win. And we tolerate it and sometimes encourage it. Which isn’t to say the Astros didn’t go too far but we do recognize their is a spectrum of cheating to win. Setting up 2 inches outside the batters box is cheating but no one is saying that we should exclude anyone who has done that. It is part of the competition.
Throwing a game is simply not allowable to any degree. It ceases to be a competition. If it isn’t a competition, what’s the point of it existing?
Stealing signs, by whatever means, is as old as baseball itself. Keen eyes, pattern recognition, binoculars, and cameras. Variations on a theme. The Astros crime is they got caught.
That ignores the distinction that cheating to steal signs and doing it within the framework of the rules are two wholly different things. Your implication is that all sign stealing is illegal, and that simply isn’t true.
Like @FishSox implied, I suspect you’re in the minority if you draw no distinction between the way the Astros used technology and a runner on 2nd trying to relay signs to the hitter.
I agree with joehow112.
I am not defending Beltran, but sign stealing is common in baseball. It is part of baseball to try to uncover what the opposing team signs and strategies are. It is so pervasive that there has been occasions when pitchers intentionally commit balks to move runners from position where they can steal signs.
The Black Sox situation is a different beast. Much worse.
Andruw will be close, I think the record is in the 15 year period not 10 year period.
I don’t think anyone in my lifetime has started below 10% and ended up being elected by the BBWAA. Scott Rolen started at 10.2% and was elected by the BBWAA and that’s the lowest I can remember.
Yup, Rolen had the lowest debut percentage. Helton had the second-lowest percentage, which prompted Sarah Langs to write about his peers in that regard.
The position player/SP disparity has to be explored at least, and reconciled hopefully. Sabathia should be first ballot.
Some of them like to talk about dominance/peak for SPs but they seem to change the criteria for position players.
Good for Mauer, he really got obliterated on private ballots but snuck in anyway; catcher haters destroyed.
Mauer was a borderline case for me. If you look at WAR (not the be-all, end-all, but a good place to start), he’s at 55.2, good for 250th all-time, but among catchers, he’s 11th. Earlier this week, someone brought up in the Buehrle article that part of the purpose of the Hall was to tell the story of baseball. I’m not convinced that Mauer deserves the Hall on simply the basis of his numbers (though I wouldn’t argue too hard against it), but I have a harder time believing you can tell the story of baseball at that time without mentioning Mauer than without mentioning Buehrle, so on that basis, I think he deserves it.
MVP, arguably the best at his position for a decade, 3x Batting Champ as a catcher. I didn’t think he’d be first ballot because of the move to 1B after his age 30 season, but he’s definitely HOF worthy imo.
I love Mark Buehrle and love that he’s still in the discussion because it usually leads to a wider discussion about how Starters are utilized today, but he’s not really comparable to Mauer.
I thought Mauer would have a slight slightly tougher road, but his peak case is strong. First catcher to win a batting title since integration, and he won three of them. He was also a legitimately great defensive catcher before concussions, so I get it.
I understand the arguments for; it’s just that the peak was relatively short. From 2006 to 2010, he had 29 WAR, which is definitely a HOF-worthy peak for a C. But after that he cleared 5 WAR just once and 4 WAR one other time. The batting titles are certainly noteworthy and 2009 was a monster year, but you look at other numbers like 143 HR’s and a .439 SLG and they’re not as impressive.
Had I a vote, I probably would have voted for him. It would have just been more on his relative place at that time than the career as a whole.
my two cents on this years vote…
Adrian Beltre Great. no brainer in my opinion. 1st ballot all the way.
Joe Mauer yeah i guess so. I might not have voted for him, but don’t mind him getting in. 3X batting champ, 3X Gold Glove, 1 MVP at catcher. Hard to say no to that.
Helton whaaa??? Just not a HOFer for me. This is what chaps my ass. I always advocate for ballot eligible Sox players and compare them to the guys who are voted in. As many of you know, Helton’s career can be very easily compared to that of Paul Konerko. They played in the same window of time and had some very similar career numbers in terms of hits, HR, RBI and cumulative MVP votes (PK actually had significantly more HR in spite of having just 61 PA’s in Coors). I’m also aware that Helton won 3 gold gloves and walked a lot more, but even considering that, I’m not sure how you account for Helton getting in with 80% of the vote with Konerko getting just 2.5% in his first and only year on the ballot. Was Helton better?… perhaps. Was he THAT much better? not a chance. Not saying Konerko should be in, I’m saying Helton should not. Can anyone tell me what I’m missing?
Their triple slashes:
Konerko: .279/.354/.486 (OPS+ of 118)
Helton: .316/.414/.539 (OPS+ of 133)
dWAR:
Konerko: -17.7 (yikes!)
Helton: -5.0
Overall WAR:
Konerko: 28.1
Helton: 61.8
Really, the only meaningful category I could find where Konerko has an edge is HR’s, at 439 to 369.
I don’t think I’d have voted for Helton because I don’t know how well he’d have done outside of Coors Field. It’s unfair to simply use his away splits because many former Rockies players find their splits become less drastic after leaving, as they get used to how the ball usually moves at lower altitudes. But Helton deserves it significantly more than Konerko. He was a fine asset to this team, but he’s not HOF-worthy.
Helton is also the most important Rockie in franchise history. That’s not a case for induction in and of itself, because otherwise Jeff Conine would be in, but if a guy is borderline and represents a whole lot for a franchise that doesn’t have a real presence in the museum, that’ll tip the scales for me.
More important than Larry Walker? Who did everything for the franchise Helton did, but did it better? Before Minoso and Baines were put in, I would say Sox were very underrepresented too. Probably still are. (Dick Allen induction could help that cause).
Walker started his career with the Expos. He played there for various years. Helton was always with the Rockies.
I think that’s probably right. But thanks to Konerko’s postseason heroics, I suspect he’ll loom larger in the minds of Sox fans than his performance suggests. You can’t build a HOF case on that alone, but I tend to put stock in how fans perceived the player, too. Which, I take it, is part of your point about Helton.
On that note, I wouldn’t vote for Konerko if I had a vote, but I’d fight to the death for Buehrle.
To be fair, HR is a pretty meaningful category for 1B!
I took andy’s point not to be that Konerko was HOF worthy, but that Helton wasn’t, eitherโor, at least, the large gap between them isn’t warranted. Helton is pretty clearly the better player, but I don’t think the gap is as big as your numbers suggest. One reason is Konerko’s early and late years hurt Konerko more than they hurt Helton. You can’t erase those years, but that’s why counting numbers tend to count more than others for HOF case (and I think that’s reasonable), and on that score things look a lot closer:
Konerko: 439 HR, 1412 RBI, 2340 H
Helton: 369 HR, 1406 RBI, 2519 H
While we’re comparing them, you can also add postseason performance. Konerko’s 132 wRC+ in 2005 and 167 wRC+ in 2008 looks pretty good compared to Helton’s 53 wRC+ (2007) and 35 wRC+ (2009). The heroics surely count in Konerko’s favor, too.
Again, my point here is not Konerko is better or deserved the HOF. But I’m sympathetic with andy’s point: the gap does seem larger than it should be.
Nailed it. Couldn’t have said it much better. Thanks.
If that’s how you weigh cases, I think you and I would have very different ballots if we were in the BBWAA, which is fine. Also as Frank points out below, I think you missed my point altogether.
One of Konerko’s most meaningful “categories where he has an edge” was his ALCS MVP and WS performance in 2005. Not really a statistical category, but that’s what I mean when I say that you and I would vote very differently.
Sorry that I missed your point. I don’t know how much I weigh postseason heroics, especially when they’re largely based on one year (Sox went out quickly in 2008, though not on any part due to Konerko). For a borderline guy, I think it’s enough to bring him in. Conversely, for a borderline case, failing in the playoffs as Helton did should absolutely be counted against him.
And though we’d probably have different ballots, I think we agree on Helton. He’s close, but I don’t think he’s quite good enough. I just won’t argue strongly against him. I don’t think he waters down the Hall like Baines did. To me, the only clear choice this year was Beltre. Mauer and Helton were borderline, but I’d rather Mauer get in. I honestly think Wagner should have gotten in, too, based on being arguably the second most dominant reliever ever, but I strongly suspect he’ll make it next year.
Looks like Montgomery is going to be moving even higher in MLB Pipelineโs top 100. He is the second ranked shortstop in new the top 10 shortstops list, whereas heโs the fifth shortstop on the soon to be obsolete top 100 list.
Sheesh, that’s maybe top 5 overall. My guess is he slots in #6, behind the current top 5. But it wouldn’t shock me if he leaps into the top 5, with Crews or Salas falling to #6.
I donโt think that high. Currently the #2 shortstop is #9 on the top 100. The way they have been talking about Salas, I donโt think heโs going anywhere but up. And I think Langford will move into the top 10. I would guess somewhere in the 7-12 range.
My guess is #11-13. Given there are questions about whether he’ll stick at SS, I don’t know that he breaks top 10. I do love, however, how he struggles at first at a new level, but then makes adjustments and is better the second time around. That kind of attitude and ability to change bode well for him as a major leaguer, because he’ll always need to make adjustments as pitchers attack him different ways and with different stuff.
I know things will shift a bit, but prospect rankings tend to favor SS. Currently, 5 of top 11 are SS. I’d be pretty surprised if the #2 SS landed outside the top 10 based on where things currently stand.
You’re probably right about Salas, but I could see Montgomery pulling the upset and edging out Crews for 5th. I know Crews has hype, but head-to-head it’s easy to make a case for Colson: same age (Colson exactly one day older, in fact), but Colson plays a premium position and has performed (much) better in AA (admittedly SSS, but pretty much all minor league performance is). Smart money is probably in the 7-9 range, but 5th feels realistic.
I’m a little surprised publications have continued to be so bullish on him.
Really? Why? A 21-year-old SS with a good string of AA success, elite plate discipline, and some pop sounds exactly like the kind of prospects publications are bullish on.
Some may worry he’ll move off, but, clearly, other publicaitons don’t share the concern. Either way, it looks like the bat will really play.
You forgot to mention he is a left-handed hitter. I think the last time we had a SS that hit left handed was Ozzie Guillen. I think Valentin could hit with both hands. Nicky Lopez could be another if he plays SS.
Don’t forget Mike Caruso!
Valentin could hit left handed. He occasionally stood in the box right handed (not much hitting though).
It’s been a while since Sox fans have had this much cause to be high on a prospect. And, in fairness to the team, it has to be admitted that he was drafted by the Sox and developed fully in-house. One of the relatively few wins for the team’s drafting and development efforts, but with Schultz appearing on these rankings, too, maybe there’s some small hope their processes are improving.
Moncada was ranked #1 overall and Robert and Jimenez were top 5. That wasn’t that long ago.
To me, Mauer’s borderline. Washed at 30 and only 920 games caught.
There are others at various positions better than him not currently in and may never get in.
To get in on the first ballot is puzzling. I guess handsome, affable and squeaky clean is worth something.
โI guess handsome, affable and squeaky clean is worth something.โ
Always worked for me.
He also gets less judgement about not catching after 30 because concussions were the cause. If he stopping catching because he got fat / started splitting focus with a vanity music career, he’d have been judged more harshly.
I think much like Reggie Jackson it was Mauers postseason prowess that gave him the nod. Do you know how tough it is for a team with a first ballot hof to go 0-10 while that stud racks up 1 extra base hit in 44 plate appearances? I think that record may not be seen again.
In other words F the Twins and their bogus hall of famer. Former white sox great Andruw Jones deserved the nod before him.
Harold Baines is a Hall of Famer, so we can’t exactly act high and mighty.
If you could park adjust Harold Baines in to the Metrodome and Mauer in to Old Comiskey I think Baines is a first ballot guy too and Mauer is struggling to hit 7 home runs.
No.
Lol the tragic underrating of Baines. He finished 134 hits shy of 3,000. If he got there heโs in no doubt and many years ago. I have to think that dome of bags has a few more knocks over a decades work.
Meanwhile, just compare Metrodome Mauer vs Target Mauer. It wasnโt called the Homer Dome cause it was filled with their fans. Left handed paradise
This was without a doubt a top achievement for Baines which certainly made him HoF worthy. Knowing that Omar Vizquel has more hits than Baines kinda takes the shine off it a little bit.
This is true, but there’s a mix of old and new metrics that i just think can’t capture what Baines was. For instance yeah he only drove in 80-90 runs at his peak but those were some bad teams. He didn’t have as many chances. He was a career .291/.379/.460 hitter with RISP. Only struck out 100 times once in his career. He was a helluva situational guy and really was a run producer when he had people on.
I talked about the home run deal. When he was older in Camden Yards the homers sure came. But it was tough getting out of Old Comiskey.
He played in 31 postseason games and hit .324 with 5 homers.
His numbers are excellent cut in many different ways. They don’t scream at you like some others do, but on bad teams in a big park its hard to make that happen.
If Vizquel not had the off the field problems he would have been elected.That shouldn’t take any shine off of Baines.
I got curious after saying that about Mauer.
MetroDome – 1278 AB, 326/405/477, 36 HR, 196 RBI
Target – 2147 AB, 297/382/404, 32 HR, 271 RBI
So over 100 pts in OPS, less homers despite 1000 more at bats and just barely more RBI. He’s just as park inflated as Todd Helton.
I know he was a catcher and the injuries…but he played the last 9 years at Target Field. That’s his total production for 9 years!
I don’t know what the point of holding Mauer’s park against him is since you could do the same to an untold number of players in the HOF.
There have definitely been some takes here today. The homers are out in full force.
Im sorry but ive always heard being a hall of famer is about being great for a long period of time. Both are necessary. Joe Mauer was great for 6 years. And then he was Doug Mienkiewicz for 10.
If you put Harold Baines in the Metrodome, he would’ve ended up with 880 career hits after his knees exploded seven times before the age of 26.
I think Mauer should have 1 vote reversed for every 50 mound visits he made. That would probably put him in negative territory.
I think even Mauer bashers would struggle to come up with a dozen better catchers than Mauer in the 123-year history of modern baseball. If you are among the best dozen players ever to play a position, I think you’re a hall-of-famer.
(Unless you’re a closer…)
It’s true that Mauer technically is a catcher, but it still kinda feels like cheating. Mauer’s career games at catcher (921) don’t sniff the games of other HOF catchers: Bench (1742), Berra (1699), Carter (2056), Fisk (2226), Piazza (1630), I Rod (2427), Simmons (1771). In a quick search, the only post-WWII HOF catcher I could find who caught fewer than 1,500 career games was Roy Campanella (1364)โwho started in the Negro Leagues and was relegated to the minors for his age 24 & 25 seasons until Jackie broke the barrier.
I don’t really have a problem with Mauer making it. But I see why people are hesitant.
921 games as catcher. That’s the equivalent of less than 6 full seasons as a catcher. I have a hard time considering someone one of the dozen best ever to play a position if they barely played that position.
I logged in this morning and there were exactly 56 comments in this thread. Poetic