Colson Montgomery's spot atop White Sox top prospect lists is ironclad, so the mystery is limited to how high he can climb the leaguewide prospect rankings.
MLB Pipeline's list might be hard to beat, as Jim Callis and Co. ranked Montgomery No. 9 on their top 100. That puts him right behind other magnetic talents like 2023 second-overall pick Dylan Crews, and 17-year-old catching prospect Ethan Salas, and since Montgomery has a half-season of Double-A ball and some Arizona Fall League production under his belt, he has an edge in proximity to the majors.
(As jorgefabregas noted in the comments, Kiley McDaniel did rank Montgomery second in his second-half update for ESPN last year, so if his uncommon enthusiasm hasn't waned, Montgomery might rank higher still.)
On 670 The Score's Inside the Clubhouse show Saturday, David Haugh asked Getz what Colson Montgomery's 2024 timeline might look like. Getz avoided directly answering the question in an enthusiastic fashion.
"He's moved along quicker than we thought, and the really talented ones can do that." Getz said. "That's including some smaller injuries he's had along the way, and that just speaks to the individual, the makeup, obviously the physical talent.
"Last year was just so fun to watch him -- he was A-ball to Double-A, and then he was in the AFL and just continued to impress. He controls the zone, he makes good swing decisions, he's always been very comfortable in the box. His defense at shortstop continues to improve.
"Guys like that, you know, you hate to cap them. We'll come into spring training, we'll see what he looks like but the way things are trending, I don't think he's too far off from being at the major league level."
It doesn't make sense to float the idea that Montgomery has a chance to crack the Opening Day roster because the timing is all off. He hasn't yet played at Triple-A, there isn't enough talent at the MLB level to cover for him as he gets acclimated, and his brand of defense would counteract Getz's entire philosophy of defense-first acquisitions. Yet there also isn't much of a point in telling everybody what Montgomery can't or won't do at this juncture, because it's a lot more fun to briefly envision an immediate Montgomery emergence than Paul DeJong's steady defensive professionalism.
There are two questions that are a little too uncertain to hang any immediate MLB expectations on Montgomery, though, and Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin raised them in his top 27 White Sox prospects list at FanGraphs on Friday.
No. 1: Is Montgomery a shortstop?
Contrary to Getz's glossing-over, Montgomery's playmaking at shortstop took a step back last year. The back and oblique injuries that delayed the start to his season cloud the picture a little with regards to his real fluidity, but the FanGraphs assessment comes from a real place ...
We buy that there’s variance around this evaluation, but most of what Montgomery is doing on defense happens too slowly, and runners end up safe on otherwise routine plays. His hands and range are both comfortably below average, and 21-year-olds this size rarely stick at short. Montgomery hasn’t played anywhere but shortstop yet in pro ball, so we have him speculatively projected to third base, where guys his size tend to wind up.
... and the burden of proof is on Montgomery here.
No. 2: How is Montgomery's hit tool?
This aspect of Montgomery's game hasn't come up much because his production has been so far ahead of the curve and his defense is the more prominent weakness, but he hit .244 both at Birmingham and in the AFL, and Longenhagen and Taruskin provide some scouting substance to explain the lackluster BABIP.
Skepticism that his hit tool is as good as his 2023 data performance comes in part from Colson feasting on low-level pitching for a large portion of his 2023 output. His swing is also long and cuts through the bottom portion of the zone. On tape and in the Arizona Fall League, Montgomery struggled with belt-high fastballs and with barrel accuracy in general. Again, the on-base skills and power here carry so much water that we think Montgomery will still probably be an above-average everyday corner infielder (unless he moves to first base), but this evaluation is probably a shade below the general industry consensus based on our eyeball scouting.
As I mentioned when I saw Montgomery late last year, he limited his swings to specific parts of the zone, even if it required him to sacrifice count leverage. That reflects his comfort with using the two strikes he's allowed to take, but there was a rigidity to his game both at the plate and in the field. If this wasn't due to the early season injuries or September fatigue -- and both my times watching Montgomery in person have come at the end of the season -- then barrel accuracy might explain why Montgomery's patience sometimes looks like passivity.
These aren't doubts as much as they are questions, and the only reason we're discussing them right now is because they're relevant to Montgomery's best-case scenario and earliest timetable. In the far likelier scenarios where Montgomery will be insulated from 26-man roster pressures until he's shown everything he can show at his final defensive destination, he should be afforded all the necessary time to provide satisfying answers. He's doing just about everything else right, so there's no reason to ring alarms.
In the meantime, I wouldn't hate it if the Sox let Montgomery open the season at Birmingham. I'd happily drive three hours to Regions Field for the opportunity to see him at the start of the season instead of the very end of one.
