Reconsidering the rumor mill after Shohei Ohtani breaks own news

MLB winter meetings
(Sox Machine photo)

Shohei Ohtani’s free agency saga, which ended with Ohtani announcing his own signing with the Dodgers after multiple BBWAA members swung and missed on his whereabouts and destination, drew the ire of Bob Nightengale, who led his Sunday notebook column with a scathing takedown of the way reporters cover the hot stove season.

A lot of the frenzy was specific to Ohtani, from the radio silence from all parties involved (save Dave Roberts) and the unprecedented size of the contract. But it apparently pushed Nightengale into Howard Beale territory.

We can accurately predict which reporters will be breaking which free agent signings the rest of the winter, judging by a reporterโ€™s relationship with an agent or a reporter whoโ€™s represented by the same agency.

โ€œItโ€™s unbelievable as to how certain members of the media promote clients of certain agencies,” one veteran agent said, โ€œand more shameful is the fact there is little to no media accountability. No wonder why we have so many clubs and industry personnel being misled.” 

Oh, youโ€™re telling us there are 10 teams involved in the free agent bidding for your client? Sure, weโ€™ll tweet it. Itโ€™s now down to two teams, but the offers keep getting bigger? Sure, weโ€™ll go with it.ย 

The last paragraph stood out to me after watching Erick Fedde sign with the White Sox for two years and $15 million a day after this tweet from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand:

https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1731890326028103809

Earlier in the column, Nightengale spends a couple paragraphs saying that teams aren’t allowed to leak on the same level as agents, and often have to sit idly by while supposed actions are being bandied about, and I can see a consistent through-line, at least from what we know of his White Sox coverage. He’s one of the few reporters with regular access to Jerry Reinsdorf, and the Eduardo Escobar “trade” is the only time I can recall one of his strongly worded hunches or confirmed reports not materializing in recent years.

I understand how reporters who get by entirely on agent access cheapen the medium. I can also imagine Reinsdorf complaining to Nightengale about Scott Boras leaking details about Fedde’s status, so I don’t think there’s a way to be completely agenda-less when it comes to ongoing negotiations between labor and management, because it’s a zero-sum game until pen meets paper.

It’s also a little quaint to see baseball writers chastising themselves over fevered and incorrect coverage, because any veterans of the college football coaching carousel would look at the Ohtani activity and say, “Is that all?” Coverage of an entertainment industry can easily become part of the entertainment.

For instance, before Jon Morosi issued a mea culpa on his incorrect reporting about Ohtani being on a flight to Toronto, he also issued these tweets:

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1731704839447457867
https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1731706284611698696
https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1732480741802385435

Had Ohtani not triggered such a reckoning, these tweets wouldn’t have merited reconsideration. In a true journalism sense, it’s weird that a baseball reporter is idly matching a player to a specific team after talking to him, but strict journalism standards are already in jeopardy when the reporter works for the network owned by the league. That particular horse left the barn more than a decade ago.

But even setting aside who owns what outlets, the drip-drip-drip of information has always been a big part of the hot stove season, and sites like Sox Machine benefit from the discussion fodder. There’s edification in running a rumor through your BS detector, then seeing how well your initial read holds up.

That said, the marketplace of gossip will get sloppier and sloppier as layers of editorial oversight are removed and the true rumor artisans are outnumbered by the drop-shippers. That’s why there’s value in people like Nightengale and Ken Rosenthal wondering whether this is what they really want to be doing. But doing something else will require a lot of habit-breaking, and the same kind of scrutiny about who is being served.

Lower in Nightengale’s column, he references Reinsdorf’s meeting with Nashville Mayor Freddie O’Connell, and dismisses the cynical speculation:

Chicago White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf created a stir, and plenty of wild rumors, when he had dinner with the Nashville mayor Freddie Oโ€™Connell. 

But no, the White Sox are not moving to Nashville. 

Yes, Nashville remains a contender for expansion franchise with an ownership group led by Dave Stewart, who is a friend of Reinsdorfโ€™s.ย 

Of course, part of the reason the meeting created a stir is because Reinsdorf has a history of using another city for leverage in brokering a new stadium deal, and the White Sox offered no details about what the meeting was about. If Reinsdorf was just tagging along with Stewart and Tony La Russa on a Music City Baseball networking venture, there would’ve been no harm in saying so. There just would’ve been nothing to gain, either.

Author

  • Jim Margalus

    Writing about the White Sox for a 16th season, first here, then at South Side Sox, and now here again. Letโ€™s talk curling.

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This is why I only trust rumors from the last bastion of real journalism: Reddit

From KatyPerrysBootyHole to your ears.

FishSox

*pauses

*visualizes

*moves on

Member

Bootleg album title.

Last edited 1 year ago by Member
Joliet Orange Sox

I started to suspect that sports writers had some biases for and against certain players as a small boy because even to my kindergarten self Walter Brennan seemed less than fully objective covering Gary Cooper.

calcetinesblancos

“Thereโ€™s edification in running a rumor through your BS detector, then seeing how well your initial read holds up.”

Too soon; I admit I was naive enough to think we might actually try to sign Harper/Machado.

knoxfire30

Those would be some quality gets… pipeline’s scouting reports are very encouraging on both.

BenwithVen

Any shift away from the older, lower ceiling Cuban player pipeline that the last administration prioritized is a win in my book.

PauliePaulie

It’s true that the shift in prioritiy would be welcomed. But, because of how far in advance these signings are typically agreed to, the “credit” most likely goes to the last administration.

John

Agreed, but with their age, this effectively makes them like drafting high school players. So much projection and growth to go makes these inherently riskier than signing older prospects with more experience. That said, neither Cespedes nor Colas have worked out well, so why not give the kids a chance?

upnorthsox

Or Sanchez. That’s like $5 mil on 3 players and only one with a real shot at the majors.

John

I’ll be happy if it happens, but I’ll wait until they sign before I start celebrating. Remember, the Sox lost out on Juan Soto over $50k. A lot can happen in the next month.

ParisSox

never heard this before. True story?

John

I haven’t seen it on any official news sources, like The Athletic or MLBTR, but how often are losing bids made public? In the link, Doug Laumann (Director of Scouting for the Sox through 2015) says the Sox lost out on him by $50K. https://twitter.com/pjonesbaseball/status/1581797164950630400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1581797164950630400%7Ctwgr%5Ee246634b6981d139c4da695e326901b100b391bc%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.barstoolsports.com%2Fblog%2F3439422%2Fof-course-the-white-sox-lost-out-on-signing-a-young-juan-soto-due-to-a-measly-dollar50000

PauliePaulie

It’s interesting MLBPipeline removed the info on what team was signing each prospect.
Sox had been linked to another kid ranked in the 40’s.

jorgefabregas

Or not (on the more highly ranked player) https://x.com/francysromeroFR/status/1734235257442886012?s=20

jorgefabregas

So Cruz is actually signing with the Cubs, but hereโ€™s another fairly large bonus. I donโ€™t remember the Sox being active in Curaรงao https://x.com/francysromeroFR/status/1734234407408472460

upnorthsox

So can we get Adolfo Sanchez instead?

PauliePaulie

This makes a lot more sense. Big signings are a R/R with 1B risk and someone’s brother.

jorgefabregas

Yes, they have been big on bloodlines, and it seems like lazy evaluating. Aside from Tatis, Jr., the bloodlines guys have not so much as performed in rookie ball.

Trooper Galactus

I like that they’re signing big-bonus teenagers, but they have not exactly demonstrated a propensity for developing them to their potential in the last decade. At least they have a long time to make good unlike guys like Vera, Sanchez, and Cespedes who either hit the ground running or are immediately toast.

As Cirensica

One thing that I have never understood why there is a need to acknowledge who was the first to report a breaking news in baseball. You never see that in other aspects of journalism. It would be weird to report the news of the latest on the Ukraine war, and then in close the article with “first reported by John Whoever”.

Is the journalist ego that big of a deal? Being first, and the acknowledgement to be the first to report, brings $$$ to the journalist? It is like breaking news first makes it somehow a copyrighted baseball news.

Last edited 1 year ago by As Cirensica
knoxfire30

lol have you ever met a journalist… yes, yes their egos are that big

As Cirensica

But only baseball journalists?

I get the pursue of being the first to get a news in general because it “sells newspapers”, but once the news is out, acknowledging who got it first seems a bit unnecessary and pointless to me.

WestEddy

Infinite amount of journalists chasing a finite number of stories. Half of sports news-reporting is retweeting.

As Cirensica

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing that.

670WMAQtheElder

Itโ€™s not just sports. Twitter X makes speed important. You get beat and your editor will ask you why unpleasantly.

John

As with just about any profession, there are those who are trustworthy and good at their job, those who are trustworthy but not good at their job, and those who aren’t trustworthy (which usually means they’re not good at their jobs, though there are exceptions for lawyers, salespeople, etc. Basically the jobs many of us have a low opinion of anyway).

Maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t see the huge issue here, especially as much of the ire seems to relate to Ohtani’s FA odyssey in particular. It was secretive per his request and he’s a unicorn that teams would do almost anything for. So, of course his trip through FA would be unique and would pose different challenges and frustrations.

I don’t know, maybe teams should be allowed more leeway in commentary, but I’d bet most teams have a favorite reporter that they leak their plans and efforts to anyway. So are we really decrying that a profession all about communication might afford various benefits based on relationships? Or is the issue that some of the info is false or biased (which differentiates it from the rest of news media how?)

Last edited 1 year ago by John
bfl5916

It’s my opinion that the White Sox did inquire about the possibility of Nashville as a future destination! And they will continue to look at other possibilities until the stadium situation is resolved. They are not signing another lease. It just doesn’t work for them. Texas had a relatively new stadium. Another won was built. I don’t see that happening in Chicago. So they will probably keep looking and deny that they are. All my opinions but i feel pretty confident they are close to the target. I like Sox Park. But I’m in the minority for sure. Looking forward to that big Cease trade. Predict the Dodgers!

dwjm3

One of Toronto’s beat writers said their offer to Ohtani was pretty close in size to the Dodger’s offer. The league has an increasing number of owners who are willing to put-up some serious dollars for free agents.

BillyKochFanClub

Hopefully this trend sickens Jerry and motivates him to sell.

dwjm3

I got figure he is clinging on for tax reasons. The majority of the owners in this league don’t share his value system.

FishSox

Except that Jerry has stated, he believes the other owners are fools and he’s the one doing it right.

A buffoon can’t see that he’s a buffoon.

John

It’s called the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Supposedly, a man read that lemon juice was used to make invisible ink and then reasoned that if he rubbed it on his face, security cameras at a bank wouldn’t be able to see him. Two researchers, named Dunning and Kruger, came up with the theory that the worse you are at something, the more likely you are to see yourself as an expert. This has been shown to be true with driving, comedy, bank robbing, and a host of other pursuits, including running an MLB team.

Joliet Orange Sox

Has anyone else ever had a slip of the tongue and called the Dunning-Kruger effect the Dunder-Mifflin effect?

Member

I’m bleary-eyed and read that as “…motivates him to hell”.

ParisSox

Oh where have you gone, wetbutt23? Our blogger nation turns its lonely eyes to you. woo woo woo.

GrinnellSteve

I was about to write this very thing, word for word! Now I’ll just have to acknowledge you were the first to break this comment.

ParisSox

I credit google for helping me find the name.

670WMAQtheElder

As if teams donโ€™t use reporters the same way!

knoxfire30

People call reinsdorf cheap but he is paying leury like 250% more next year then the dodgers are paying ohtani so ha!

Yolmer

Jerry Reinsdorf the tax lawyer must really love this Ohtani contract.

ParisSox

it’s his Viagra

John

I ran the numbers on it. There are a couple ways to tackle getting back to NPV. One is to get the entire contract back to today’s value. Using this approach, to get back to an NPV of $460M, they had to use a growth rate of around 3%. In 2003, average player salary was 2.37M, last year it was 4.9, which is a 3.7% growth rate. Using that means the NPV is only $421M.

Using a 6% growth rate, which they could probably get if they invested in the market fairly conservatively, means the NPV is really just $312M.

The other approach is to bring back the salary to each year. In other words, yr 1 + yr 11 (discounting for the growth rate), then add yr 2 + yr 12 (discounted) and so on. So you’re not discounting yr 20 all the way back to today, but to yr 10. Doing this means they used a rate of 4.5%, which is partway between the salary growth rate (which, keep in mind, is boosted by the large increase in league minimum salary after the last CBT) and the market interest rate they could reasonably expect to receive.

It still sucks, though, that this is legal. I think there should be a limit on both percentage of a contract that can be deferred and total amount a team can have deferred. Dodgers are exploiting a loophole.