Arizona Fall League Update: Jake Eder’s control comes and goes
I was a little bit surprised to see a rather credulous headline for Mark Gonzales’ story about Jake Eder in the Sun-Times: “White Sox GM Chris Getz says pitching prospect Jake Eder is close to the majors.”
Getz wasn’t the White Sox GM who traded Jake Burger for Eder — and even the White Sox GM at the time didn’t make that trade — but Getz was the guy in charge of his initial assignment in the White Sox farm system, so he’s understandably going to champion a prospect. Getz says Eder “is not far off,” and “He’s going to find it. It’s a matter of time.”
However, Eder’s Arizona Fall League game log paints a picture of a guy who can’t be in the strike zone for that long, whether it’s because he’s unable to, or because he gets hit when he stays there.
And when you read the entirety of the story, Gonzales finds way to introduce counterpoints or skepticism into the record. He cites the issues throwing strikes, which necessitated the White Sox cutting short Eder’s season in Birmingham for work in what Gonzales calls the White Sox’s “non-ballyhooed” Arizona pitch lab.
He also takes a moment to Remember a Guy:
A veteran major-league scout who saw Eder’s start against Peoria observed that he needed to refine his delivery and said his control struggles mirror those of former major-league left-hander Shawn Estes, who won 19 games but walked a National League-high 100 in 201 innings in 1997 and was saddled with control issues throughout most of his 13 major-league seasons.
The scout added that Eder might be better-suited as a middle-inning reliever unless he curbs his wildness soon.
These are valid reasons for concern, but to find middle ground, there’s also a little bit of a risk in overstating them at this point. Given that the start of Eder’s pro career was interrupted by Tommy John surgery, it’s worth waiting until he’s a full season removed from the procedure before issuing a verdict, even if you have your hunches. He’s far from alone in the farm system — Peyton Pallette is another example — which either means it’s a mundane obstacle, or the White Sox aren’t very good at tackling it.
Baseball America indulged itself in some stat-line scouting — or analytical data scouting — in order to harvest some under-the-radar progress and prospects during the 2023 season.
In an installment of the Roboscout series featuring lesser-known low-minors hitters, Javier Mogollon’s excellent season in the Dominican Summer League earned wider appreciation:
The White Sox signed the 17-year old shortstop from Venezuela on account of his short, balanced righty hitting stroke and plus running ability. The White Sox played Mogollon at second base more frequently than shortstop because of his below-average arm. His bat, however, plays plenty at the keystone. He produced double-digit home runs and steals to post the highest RoboCast score among all DSL prospects. Mogollon pairs plus contact rates and the seventh-highest barrel rate among 17-year-olds in the DSL with at least 100 plate appearances. He has a knack for optimizing his hard contact to the pull side at launch angles where they’ll do the most damage. He led all 17-year-olds in the DSL in homers (10) and posted a 98th percentile OPS among all DSL hitters.
Meanwhile, Adam Hackenberg finished the 2023 season having made one of the biggest jumps in average exit velocity among all minor league hitters, with a gain of 6.2 mph. Granted, he had the second-lowest 2022 average exit velocity on the list at 80.4 mph, so he really had nowhere to go but up. He gets points for being a true catcher, so he doesn’t have that much further to go in order to be a viable option behind the plate.
Arizona Fall League update
The good: Bryan Ramos became the first White Sox hitting prospect to wrestle the strike zone into his favor, drawing five walks against two strikeouts over the past week. Jordan Leasure continues to look overqualified for the AFL (not an easy thing for any pitcher without MLB experience), and Fraser Ellard’s strikeout rate is climbing.
The not good: Just about everything else when you compare the lines to last week’s, but every game seemingly brings a fresh hell upon Adisyn Coffey.
| Date | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | Pit/Str |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17/10 |
| Oct. 10 | 0.1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 29/10 |
| Oct. 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16/10 |
| Oct. 19 | 1.1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 42/21 |
| Oct. 25 | 0.1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22/7 |
| Total | 4 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 33.75 ERA |
As for the others:
Colson Montgomery: 15-for-63, 3 HR, 2 3B, 1 2B, 2 BB, 20 K, .238/.269/.460
Bryan Ramos: 16-for-60, 2 HR, 2 2B, 7 BB, 13 K, .267/.343/.400
Jacob Burke: 17-for-74, 0 HR, 3 2B, 7 BB, 26 K, 5/5 SB, .230/.326/.351
Jake Eder: 12.1 IP, 13 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 HR, 8 BB, 14 K
Josimar Cousin: 9.2 IP, 19 H, 13 R, 12 ER, 4 HR, 4 BB, 5 K
Jordan Leasure: 7.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 13 K
Fraser Ellard: 7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 10 K
Author
Jake Eder is 25. He better be close to the Majors or he will follow the Jesse Scholtens path to the Majors.
In a Driveline article (link below)
It paints a not-so-great picture for Eder. He needs to figure it out soon because as the article states “Every arm is on the clock”. I still think this trade (Burger/Eder) was bad because the White Sox basically traded a “we’ve got something” for “maybe we’ve got something”. Eder reminds me a bit Michael Kopech. A good pitching prospect going thru TJ, and other maladies that required a ‘treat it with care’ tag. All the sudden, we twigged the guy is 27 with a dwindling fast-ball speed and other non-arm maladies start to show up and is yet to reach any potential.
https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2021/09/the-makeup-of-a-pitcher-debuting-in-the-major-leagues/#:~:text=In%20the%20density%20plot%20below,were%2033%2D34%20years%20old.
They traded Burger as though he was a project. A project for a project. But if was a near-finished major leaguer with five years of control, he should have netted more.
I wonder if this is as true for pitchers as hitters. I’d also think—even if the same idea applied to the same extent—the age for pitchers would skew much older. I don’t have the data to back it up, but low 20s position players seem much more common than low 20s pitchers. One reason for this, surely, is how often young pitchers get TJS.
There are more position players than starter pitchers, and that might be why you perceive that there are more position players in their low 20s than pitchers.
I didn’t say “starting pitchers” I said “pitchers” (and there aren’t more position players than pitchers).
Even so, I suspect young position players are more common than young starting pitchers, even controlling for the size difference.
My comment about age referred to starting pitchers. Relievers are almost all a failed starting pitcher with significant less value. Some due to lack of skills, and some due to age. Or both. If Eder becomes a reliever, unless he is an elite reliever, the trade was bad. You can always get cheap relievers anywhere.
A random number to support my theory: 12 position players age 19-22 got 400 PA or more in 2024, but only one 19-22 pitcher got to 100 IP. That’s just one measure, of course. But I suspect something in the ballpark of the ratio would hold regardless of the markers.
Mayo also had a piece on Eder
https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/news/white-sox-prospect-jake-eder-shows-growth-in-arizona-fall-league?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage
20k v 2bb for Montgomery sure looks like some kind of regression considering his previous high OBA (although that was somewhat buoyed by HBP if I remember correctly). Is there something they are trying to work on with him at AFL or are they rudderless for instruction considering the management transition?
There was an article on MLB.com where he talked about wanting to make better contact with 2 strikes and getting out in front of breaking balls. Seems you got to swing the bat to do that, so that probably explains some of that at least.
“Eder is close to the majors”. 22 earned runs and 42 baserunners in 17 innings at AA after the trade. What’s not to like?
Getz already promoting phony narratives if not showing himself to be just as dumb or delusional as his nitwit predecessors. What else would one expect from Hahn’s apprentice?
Eder may pan out eventually, but it’s going to take a bit of time Chris. One thing that might make people want to give him a chance would be if he spoke realism rather than fantasy and/or dishonesty. Hahn was contemptible b/c he was pure phony, just like his boss. Just sell the damn team already, Jerry.
Your points are well founded. I would counter slightly with, I’ve seen TJ players suck the first year back and become instantly dominant again (meaning they had been before) the second year.
I was encouraged by the Mayo piece that JazznFunk linked that talked about how some of the stats were a bit misleading, in that they were early inning bombs with stellar later innings, while they were working on mechanics. I would understand a high degree of skepticism regarding these also.
There is certainly a chance Eder pans out and does have a good year. I sure hope so. But he was at AA last year, even if he bounces back and is healthy in 6 months, he’s not going to be up any time soon.
A good year for him would be success at Birmingham followed by a promotion, followed by success at Charlotte. IF he did that, THEN he would be “close to the majors”.
A nice outcome would be a decent finish in the AFL. A good offseason getting baseball ready as opposed to rehabbing and then a good spring training. He’ll be on a pitch count (maybe 100 to 120 innings). If all goes well he starts at AAA till the All Star break and then relieves for the Sox. One can hope!!