Prospect Week: White Sox farm system made progress, but unevenly

Regions Field in Birmingham (Sox Machine photo)

The White Sox farm system had nowhere to go but up in 2022, unless somebody had the charity to call it 29th.

OK, even then, it could’ve gone nowhere, but they indeed charted some real improvement. Colson Montgomery developed into a consensus top-50 prospect, with Oscar Colás and/or Bryan Ramos worthy of top-100 consideration, even if they didn’t place everywhere.

Yet despite some strong showings on the top end, the overall system movement was minimal.

In his write-up of the White Sox’s top 26 prospects, Eric Longenhagen said “this system remains extremely shallow, one of the thinnest in all of baseball.” Keith Law ranked the White Sox system 28th out of 30 due to “a lot of two steps forward, three steps back.” Kiley McDaniel was a bit more generous by putting them 25th, but said only four prospects look better than a role player.

Those invested in success from the White Sox system might beg to differ a little bit, but even with rose-colored glasses, there’s basically a line of demarcation after about 10 or so names. The in group has performance, age and/or pedigree on their side, and the out group has to make up lost ground, or establish their presence.

The dearth of pitching is the biggest problem, although maybe the system might look a little better had Davis Martin stopped in between “non-prospect” and “no longer a prospect.” Alas, he lost his eligibility after throwing 63 mostly successful innings for the White Sox in 2022. The Sox did attempt to tackle this problem head-on by taking pitchers with their top three selections in the draft, but two of them weren’t yet available to make pro-ball debuts. Two of them will appear in most top-10 lists, but they’re not going to represent real depth until actually seeing them in regular action.

That’s a piss-poor preamble for Prospect Week, but we can only work with what we’re given. Over the next several days,. I’ll be categorizing dozens of White Sox prospects into several groups that will allow hopefully allow me to touch upon everybody of potential relevance to the team’s immediate plans. Posts will include:

  • The new additions (draft picks, international signings)
  • Those coming off unimpeachable seasons
  • Those working through injuries
  • Those with time to develop
  • Those with potentially fatal flaws

This approach allowed me to put Martin on the edge of the radar, even if he was referenced in a write-up about Jason Bilous:

While we’re talking about guys like McClure and Bilous, I just want to mention Davis Martin, who pitched well enough in a late-season promotion to Birmingham after an uneven performance with the Dash. He seems like another guy Charlotte would clobber thanks to home-run rate problems at lower levels, but since the Sox’s pitching ranks are so thin, he stands a chance of standing out.

After establishing this year’s radar, the week will culminate with my top 10 White Sox prospects list, which will be exclusive to those who support Sox Machine on Patreon. If you haven’t yet signed up, you can do so here, or at the link just below this paragraph.

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Bonus Baby

So, taking stock of any likely periods of contention in the near future:

1. The farm system is generally very poor and thin, with a particular lack of pitching.

2. Unless something changes soon, the Sox will be cutting payroll this year, despite being in a “championship window” and having clear roster holes to fill.

3. The “window” is rapidly closing, with lots of veteran parts of the championship “core” likely to leave the team in the next couple of years.

I do want the Sox to make a genuine effort to compete this year — though they seem to not be trying very hard — but if they’re not competitive now, I continue to see nothing positive on the near-term horizon. If the Sox are cutting payroll now, why would we think that they’ll replace the players leaving with significant free agent additions? I don’t. And if the farm system is this poor and thin, why would we expect enough help to come up to make the team competitive with the remaining “core” pieces in 2024-25? I don’t.

I know most people here don’t want to go through a total teardown, but I still can’t see how a “retooling” would likely generate good results. Trading guys like Lynn, Giolito, and Anderson at the break would certainly bring value back, but I doubt nearly enough value to make the farm system suddenly one of the better systems in the league. For that, I continue to think that you’d have to throw in guys like Cease, Robert, Vaughn, and Jimenez — and just hope to reload for 2026 and later.

Unfortunately, I expect this is the last thing JR and Co. are likely to do.

a-t

Veteran guys leaving also means payroll is freed up to redistribute. They’re not willing to chase the top-tier free agents, but they’re clearly willing to chase mid-tier ones. The thinness means they basically *have* to hit on their dudes at the top of the system— Colás this year, and Montgomery & Ramos next year or two. If that does happen, they’re in respectable shape, bc all of the OF+DH, all but prolly SS and C are filled well. The future rotation needs depth badly, but college arms often move very quickly, especially polished ones like Cannon.

Bonus Baby

I’m not sure it’s clear they’re willing to sign several mid-tier FA’s once. There was Benintendi this year, and Grandal a few years ago. I’m also not convinced they won’t cut payroll even lower than it is today.

Right now the Sox are on the hook for about $11M less in payroll next year than this year. Assume Clevinger won’t have his option picked up, and they also let Kelly and Diekman go. That saves another $21.5. So they’ve got an extra $32.5M, not including arbitration raises (including Cease). I honestly doubt this would result in more than one solid SP FA. Then the rotation would be Cease, Lynn, Kopech, FA, and someone internal. Plus they’d have to fill C. If they’re not competitive this year, I can’t see it at all next year.

I think you’re right that they could conceivably be competitive in 2025 if everything goes right, including Montgomery not just hitting, but doing so as a SS instead of 3B. Lots of money does potentially come off the books that year, but so too does that create openings. If they keep the payroll maybe around $160M (not too much less than today), maybe they can do it.

My main question is just why would it be good if they tried to thread the needle like that? Cease is gone in 2026, maybe Kopech too. Eloy and Vaughn could be gone in 2027. Robert in 2028. Since they didn’t trade any of those guys in this scenario, I’m not particularly confident that any competitiveness they have in 2025 will keep going, since it would probably have to be replenished by their currently weak farm system.

hitlesswonder

> The “window” is rapidly closing

I feel like it’s wishful thinking to not believe that it is closed already. This Sox roster peaked as a playoff team but not championship contenders, and the Sox refuse to fill the holes that prevented it from peaking higher. In all likelihood, the farm system lacks the talent to move the team forward. And the Sox will not sign the FA talent needed to do so either.

The fact that the Sox opted not to spend another $15M short term on players like Segura and Duvall means to me that they aren’t really serious about contending. They’re hoping a bunch of people have career years and Sosa and Colas play way better than projections. But a real contender would act differently.

So, I agree with you – the Sox best championship hope is to sell everything including Cease, Robert, Vaughn, and Jimenez and try to win again in 2026. I’m not sure that I want them to do that because it’s just ridiculous, but it seems like the highest probability play.

a-t

Every playoff team is a championship contender in this sport.

Matt Verplaetse

Not really. When the Sox made the playoffs in 2021, they were clearly outclassed by an actual contender.

a-t

please do not quote me all of four games as evidence, lol. four games where not a single member of the rotation, the team’s biggest strength all year, all four of them All-Star quality that year, could get anywhere close to a quality start. they looked like butt bc their best component totally blew out

Matt Verplaetse

Haha, ok then chief, if those four games won’t suffice, point to the concrete evidence that they were a real contender despite the obvious flaws in their play and construction.

a-t

there were obvious flaws in the Phillies’ play and construction (a lineup consisting of 50% DHs and a highly questionable bullpen) and somehow they ended up in the World Series lol

Torpedo Jones

I love comparing the 2022 Phillies and the current White Sox team as if they’re so similar. Imagine a team that was crazy enough to add guys like Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Zach Wheeler, Realmuto – all of whom signed for contracts larger than any the Sox have ever agreed to. Hell, even the Phillies’ recent addition of Taijuan Walker nearly matches the Benintendi Blockbuster™ money-wise. And Walker is set to be their 3rd starter or possibly even their 4th depending on how Ranger Suarez continues to perform.

In my opinion, it’s not good enough to take a look at the team in it’s current shape and say “well, if they’re healthy they can probably win the division by default” and say “Mission Accomplished!” That’s a Wal-Mart version of a successful rebuild and a middle finger to fans who can clearly see that the leadership has zero interest in improving chances beyond that. Depth is for suckers, after all.

The Sox got 80% of the way through a proper rebuild and called it good enough. I applaud your ability to comfort yourself with an “all you have to do is make the playoffs”, but it’s fair for commenters like Matt and myself to still be pissed about suffering through the lowest lows of the rebuild and seeing a team that’s basically above-average (if all the starters are healthy) as the result. And, of course, we fell short of that fairly low post-rebuild bar of winning our mediocre division last year. So let’s not pretend we’re a shoo-in to make the playoffs in 2023.

HallofFrank

I agree with pretty much everything you say here. But I think @a-t ‘s point is just the idea that you need to be some juggernaut to be a “World series contender” is a myth. The Phillies are only one of several examples over the last decade that give evidence for this.

That’s not to exonerate the Sox FO. Like you say, they did not follow through and complete this rebuild like they should have, and made several blunders (first-guessing type of blunders) along the way.

However, I will add this: @a-t ‘s point is one reason why I’ve always preferred a longevity approach to a maximizing a small window approach. For example, I’d rather have 8 years of good (but not great) teams than 3 years of great teams. And, whatever mistakes they’ve made to complicate matters, the Sox FO have consistently acted like the longevity approach is the goal.

Torpedo Jones

I understand that, and who would oppose the notion of being a consistent championship contender. However, there’s a serious gap between strategically building waves of talent while contending and what the Sox have done thus far. For example, the Astros likely could’ve gone cheaper than Jose Abreu and still been a plenty successful team. Did the Phillies need Trea Turner to contend? Probably not. But they want to win and are willing to add more ammo to improve their chances. It’s not as if paying for another proven SP for depth purposes should preclude them from drafting and developing other pitching prospects.

Though I can see the distinction of not considering the Phillies a “juggernaut”, they’re definitely knocking on that door. The feature several elite players who played up to their billing since joining their team. I consider them a superior lineup to the Sox…and that was before adding Turner this offseason.

The Sox aren’t doomed by failing to add Wheeler or Harper or Machado (though I am still bitter about missing on all of those). And they’re not doomed by choosing to sit on their hands regarding RF, 2B, SP depth, and their glut of somewhat-valuable 1B/DH types. They could still catch lightning in a bottle. I just feel like the fans got screwed on their end of the “suffer through a rebuild” approach by seeing the FO leave so many gaps and act as though they’ve done all they could.

HallofFrank

Yeah, I don’t disagree. It’s been very frustrating to watch. But I don’t think it’s too late to right the ship. Call me a bright-eyed optimist, but I don’t know if we can overestimate the impact of the move from TLR to Grifol. I never thought managers were that impactful… until the 2022 White Sox. So here’s to hoping that’s more of a blip than the new normal.

Matt Verplaetse

I don’t necessarily disagree that moving from TLR to anyone else could have a significant impact, but it’s just another element of the Sox thin margin for error. They need everything to go right, including their rookie manager who has brought over a bunch of coaches from the Royals. Like Jim has alluded to on the podcast, they’re really counting on Grifol to be solid to good in lieu of having done anything to significantly improve the roster.

HallofFrank

Fair enough. I agree that the Sox margin for error is thin, I just don’t think it’s as thin as people here seem to think. Almost everything went wrong in 2022 and they still finished as a .500 team. A replacement level manager and just a lot going wrong (that is, not almost everything) is already an enormous improvement on last year.

As Cirensica

> The “window” is rapidly closing

Sometimes I wonder if it opened at all.

texag10

Signing Segura and Duvall means dogshit if we have a repeat of injuries/underperformance like last year. If we get a bounceback and have performances closer to 2021, that takes a ton of pressure off of Colas/Sosa/Romy to where they don’t have to have an 80th+ percentile season for us to be competitive.

roke1960

That’s what I’ve been saying. These two don’t have to be stars. There’s a real chance that Colas and Sosa will be batting 8th/9th, behind TA, Yoan, Robert, Eloy, Benintendi, Vaughn and Yaz. If those 7 and healthy/productive, they just need average production from the two rookies. But that doesn’t excuse them from not trying to get some certainty at 2nd and insurance for Colas in right. .

texag10

Andrus is still out there and I’d offer him a contract at this point. He said he’ll play second and he’s a much better backup to Tim than Leury.

As Cirensica

Andrus makes more sense than Segura and Duvall.

Matt Verplaetse

I’ll take the nihilistic point of view – rebuilding again is utterly pointless unless Jerry dies. A rebuild has a hard ceiling with Hahn as the GM and a refusal to finish it by spending in free agency. I’ll pass on sitting through another one unless those conditions change.

Bonus Baby

Yet he has to die some day. Where would we like them to be when he does? I’d prefer it to be mid-rebuild, shortly before the “hard ceiling” you describe, rather than just coming off a crappy year with a crappy farm system to boot.

Matt Verplaetse

The assumption here is that Hahn has his job until Jerry dies. I want Hahn gone too for me to have any belief that a roster overhaul will lead anywhere good.

Bonus Baby

Yeah, sorry if that wasn’t clear that I meant Jerry has to die someday.

FishSox

I’d like them to be on February 7th, 2023 when he dies. And if it’s from his brain being on fire, I won’t piss in his ear.

Last edited 1 year ago by FishSox
roke1960

I agree with this completely. There is no reason to go through a rebuild if Hahn is still GM and Jerry is still owner. They got a big haul for Sale/Q/Eaton (Eloy, Cease, Moncada, Kopech, Giolito, Rey, Dunning, who turned into Lynn) to kick-start the last rebuild. I don’t see them getting nearly as big of a haul this time around. And if they do, what good would it do, because Jerry won’t spend to finish the rebuild. I just want them to keep “trying” to win until Jerry dies and Hahn gets the boot. I don’t want to see another half-assed rebuild until this cheap, incompetent regime.

soxygen

Off topic, but I am watching Bill Walton and Jason Benetti do the Cavs-Wizards game on League Pass. It’s every bit as wonderful and awful as it sounds.

itaita

I never got why penny pinching Jerry never saw the money that can be saved by investing in the minors. You look at teams like the Rays or A’s and they’re always reloading and contending more often then the Sox while spending half the payroll.

Joliet Orange Sox

Jerry is penny-wise but mound-foolish.

To Err is Herrmann

Jerry does not have a good baseball mind, but meddles anyway. KW and Hahn are mediocre. The whole organization is rudderless. 2020-21 off season was time to hit the gas pedal and they came up with TLR and Eaton. Now they aren’t really trying. Sure, if everything goes right, they can win the Al Central yada yada yada, but they are not really trying to become better. They are just treading water and going in circles. An organization that should be studied in MBA programs as an example of what not to do.

As Cirensica

KW and Hahn are mediocre

You’re very generous.

roke1960

I wish they were mediocre. KW may have been. Hahn is downright awful.

Torpedo Jones

As I’ve argued before, they’re only performing poorly if they’re actually being measured by on-field success. Jerry loves to surround himself with guys who will be loyal to him and his finances more than building a winner. It’s been clear that Jerry views the players as simply his financial adversaries in labor relations rather than an asset worth investing in. I think that’s why (to @itaita’s comment above) Jerry hasn’t wanted to make bigger investments in scouting and development operations. I assume Jerry bristles at the idea of paying minor leaguers a living wage and wouldn’t want to be perceived as taking part in such bleeding-heart, commie nonsense.

Sadly the issue to me seems more likely that KW and Hahn are absolutely nailing it when measured against Jerry’s goals. Jerry seems most interested in building an average to above-average team that could (as happened in 2005) get lucky and make a run. That allows him to keep fans coming to games and making him money, but he isn’t interested in going beyond that. That’s why we see our ability to keep an actual ace like Sale was wholly dependent on getting him to take a team-friendly extension early on…and why I have zero expectation that we’ll pay to extend Dylan Cease.

roke1960

Yes, I agree that in Jerry’s eyes, Hahn is doing a great job. But only in his biased eyes. Anybody that makes him money is doing well. Winning would just be the icing on the cake. And anybody who thinks Jerry is going to pay a 9-figure contract to Giolito or Cease or any of our other guys who will earn that when they make free agency has not been paying attention. In Hawk’s words, “They gone!”

To Err is Herrmann

Yes, I was. To tell you the truth, I have very little idea who those two people are. They are just spineless yes-men, so that should tell anyone enough. The way Hahn speaks to fans shows he is a person with a superiority complex suffering from the Dunning-Kruger Effect. With what means he has been given, he did a good job amassing a core then completely failed at everything else.

Last edited 1 year ago by To Err is Herrmann
StockroomSnail

I’d tell them to focus on what they’re good at… but they only have 2 feet to blow off.

DocGreedo

He never saw the money that Harper would have brought in by ticket and merch sales.

FishSox

True dat!

StockroomSnail

It’s weird that such a lowly ranked farm system couldn’t be used to bolster the MLB roster.

Get me some magic beans, Rick.

ParisSox

Reading the comments about the “championship window” whether it’s closing or re-opening, or do a new teardown / rebuild etc., honestly these last 10 or so years of watching them try the rebuild like big boys, but stopping short makes me long for the KW days.

Hear me out. Let’s assume an outside hire and actually getting top end free agents aren’t options.

KW was like a wild gambler who threw crazy stuff against the wall until something stuck. One way or another, he was actually trying to build a championship team ever year. Most of the time it didn’t work but it did actually work one time.

Contrast that with the false hopes of actually doing a proper rebuild only to stop short of signing top tier free agents. If you aren’t going to go all the way, then let’s go back to gamblin’ Kenny and enjoy the wild ride.

StockroomSnail

Rick Hahn feels like the far too wet blanket reaction to the Ken Williams era.

BenwithVen

I gotta be honest. If Jerry/Hahn/KW oversee another complete tear down like some are suggesting, I’ll probably just end up end up following the O’s or Phillies. There’s no way I’m sitting through something like that again just to wind up with the same result.

FishSox

I think JR’s obvious disinterest in doing anything that requires effort, expenditure or positivity, beyond the bare minimum of necessary, would prevent this endeavor.

texag10

I mean, why not just leave now? Based on this community, the team will be hot garbage this year and not worth rooting for. Why wait for a teardown if you’re already thinking about switching allegiances? There’s like a 10% chance Hahn gets fired but Jerry and Kenny will still be here.

BenwithVen

I still believe in the talent and want to see how the season plays out. We’ll see what happens after that.

texag10

I can respect that and I wish that was a more popular sentiment among Sox fans. There’s just too much doom and gloom right now. We need spring training to start so we can start overreacting to Eloy and Robert hitting monster dongs against guys who won’t see the majors for another 3 years.

Torpedo Jones

Broad assumption noted. I think many members of this here board are rightly disappointed that we aren’t able to enjoy a more fully-developed rebuild thanks to Jerry and the brain trust. And there’s a huge difference between bitterness over the coupon-clipper rebuild and believing “the team will be hot garbage this year and not worth rooting for.”

I want to see the White Sox win a world series but I don’t think noting this front office’s total unwillingness to address certain gaping roster holes, for example, is “too much doom and gloom.” I mean, it’s not as if this team is coming off a season in which they were frequently injured and managed to piss away a mediocre division, right?

If things break well and players stay healthy, this is a playoff team. If not, they’re repeating 2022. I think they’ll be better than last year, but that doesn’t mean I have to bite my tongue about a front office that’s not interested in making additional moves to strengthen our chances. Benintendi is a fine supplemental addition, but that’s not making me start saving up for World Series tickets.

Good news, though. I just installed the Rose-Colored Glasses App. Would this sufficiently pass the texag10 Sox Fan Purity Test™?

You guys, banking on Colas in RF and … (vacant) at 2B is a 4D chess move that serious contenders always make. No true White Sox fan would gripe about it! Your concerns about depth across the diamond are ridiculous and anyone thinking that sturdy guys like Robert, Jimenez, Moncada, or Anderson will miss significant time again is just being a Debbie Downer. We’re basically a lock to win the division…and that was before we brought in Mike Clevinger!

As Cirensica

I will fully focus my attention to the Jays. I will not watch any White Sox games and pay no attention if we go rebuild again with Hahn and his clowns posse

Bonus Baby

One of the “some are suggesting” folks at least has been consistently upbeat about the Sox’ chances this year (though he’s less optimistic after they lost their closer and fifth starter, and still haven’t made any real attempt to trade for a LH2B or 4thOF).

And he views “complete tear down” as the best option this year only if the Sox turn out to just be bad and non-competitive at the all-star break (as in “break glass in case of failure to compete”), because: (1) if they’re bad this year, it’s hard to imagine them being good next year or in 2025; and (2) complete tear down seems to him to be the only realistic way they’ll restock the farm system so that they might again be competitive in 2026 or so.

I don’t think I really understand the “if Jerry/Hahn/KW oversee part” though. Jerry has to die at some point, and then likely Hahn/KW are gone as well. If that happened two years into the rebuild, wouldn’t that set up the next owner to have a good run? If not, why is the “no complete teardown” plan under the exact same people likely to fare better?

I dunno, I just think it’s objectively the best thing to get them back to contention if they’re bad this year. I also actually thought the tanking years were kind of fun, b/c I could look at random guys out there (Engel, Palka, whomever) and hope that they developed surprisingly well — adding on to the horde of guys coming up from the minors in a couple years. Watching the JR braintrust try to “retool” at the same time that they cut payroll further (seems likely to me), and be non-competitive without even the hope of a strong farm system, sounds very un-fun. And since our world often seems to increasingly resemble 1984, I might even say it sounds double-plus unfun. I expect people differ on which would be more tolerable viewing, of course.

I think the key word for me is “hope.” If they’re bad this year, I’d like to be able to look at something that restores my hope for the near-mid-term White Sox future. And to me the best way to do that in that case would be total rebuild.

Last edited 1 year ago by Bonus Baby
FishSox

It seems like many folks look at where we are as a linear development of JR and his band of merry hucksters. I on the other hand see a rapid decline in the amount of attention or care that JR has in regards to the franchise, simply saying, screw it, I don’t give a crap anymore, screw these fans.

It started with the TLR hiring and when that went bad, he just turned his back and doesn’t care anymore.

So to believe that there is any thought to any plan, be it rebuild, retool, reimagine or shove a rebar up someones pooper, is to not see the situation for what I believe it is, willful negligence. I don’t think he even cares enough to give us the finger anymore, like he did with the TLR hiring.

Last edited 1 year ago by FishSox
As Cirensica

I think you might be onto something.

Wayne

Where are Patreon supporters supposed to ask about prospects? I want to see Jim write/talk about Loidel Chapelli, 2B

Wayne

I will post there too.

fustercluck

that is a power move paywalling the top 10. if you want the milk, you are paying for it

https://gifs.com/gif/kingpin-cow-milk-JZkDGv

ForsterFTOG

Jared Kelley SIRP?

HallofFrank

Law said, “a lot of two steps forward, three steps back.” Once again, I’d like Law to expand on something. Who in the system took three steps back?

Looking at the FG rankings from 2022 to 2023, it’s difficult to see who Law has in mind. Unless he’s thinking of deep cuts (35+ FV or below), the most likely candidates seem to be: Burger, Thompson, Dalquist, Kelley, Cespedes, Kath, and Vera. Kath and Dalquist are obvious ones. I suppose I could buy it for Burger (because of age) and Kelley, but that feels like a stretch. Surely it doesn’t describe Thompson, Cespedes, or Vera?

Anyway, any ideas who the prospects are taking “three steps back”?