PREAMBLE
Well, that wasn't good, was it? After making the postseason in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history, the White Sox came crashing back down to earth due to injuries, poor managing and roster construction, and under performance. The 2023 offseason is a big one for the Sox. This winter could be make or break for this contention window. There are plenty of glaring needs on this roster and limited resources to fill them with so it is time for Rick Hahn to finally show us that he can build a true contender. So let's get started with this thing.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player and their projected 2022 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Lucas Giolito: $10.8M - Tender. One last ride, let's hope for a bounce back.
- Dylan Cease: $5.3M - Tender
- Reynaldo López; $3.3M - Tender. He's really embraced his reliever role and I'd let him compete for the closer spot next year.
- Adam Engel: $2.3M - Non-tender. Can't stay healthy and the progress he made with the bat seems to have evaporated in the past year.
- Michael Kopech: $2.2M - Tender
- Kyle Crick: $1.5M - Non-tender. Hardly knew ya.
- José Ruiz: $1M - Non-tender. Pretty impressive he's made it this long, but they can find guys in the minors who can pitch an inning when up or down 5 runs.
- Danny Mendick: $1M - Tender. Worth the risk for that amount. Hopefully he can regain his early 2022 form.
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.
- Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) - Pick up (Duh)
- Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout) - Decline. Josh basically gave us what we paid for, but we need to balance this lineup better.
PLAYER OPTIONS
Write “exercised” or “takes buyout.” The question here is whether you think Pollock could do better than one year and $8 million on the open market. I’m filling it in with “exercised” unless you can provide a compelling argument against it.
- AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED. I wish this wasn't going to be exercised but that extra $3m AJ earned down the stretch really made this an easy decision.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021)- Let Go. Too many other needs to pay top dollar for an aging 1st baseman. Love Jose and he will be missed in the clubhouse, but it is time to fix the defense on this team and that starts with ridding ourselves of some of these DH types.
- Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) - Let Go. Rick finally got one right, good for him.
- Vince Velasquez ($3M) - Let Go. He was a bad decision the day they signed him and it's shocking to me that he made it the full season, being injured definitely helped for that.
- Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) - Let Go. Elvis overachieved with the Sox and if the guys around him played better, he would have been a great asset in the postseason.
MANAGER
Kevin Long. Just because that seems to be where we are headed at this point. My pick would be Joe Espada, but I think he has been made some promises by the Astros that he will take over for Dusty in the near future. Long seems like an ok option to me. Honestly, when we are discussing bench coaches and hitting coaches as the options for a new manager, there seems to be only so much an outsider can really know about the hire. It's nearly impossible for me to tell how much of an impact Espada has on the Astros or if the Phillies are hitting well because of Kevin Long or just because they have good hitters.
FREE AGENTS
List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Michael Conforto (three years, $52 million). Left handed hitting right fielder, is there a better fit for this current Sox roster than that? I am hoping Conforto can finally solve right field after all these years of half measures. Conforto comes with plenty of risk coming off a season where he did not play at all, but when he is right, he is the perfect righty mashing hitter that the Sox desperately need.
No. 2: Carlos Carrasco (one year, $7 million). This is similar to the Cueto addition last year where I am hoping I can squeeze one more year of productivity and health out of a seasoned vet. Carrasco, in 2022, enjoyed a year where he had a 4ish ERA and pitched 152 innings across 29 starts. If he did that again in 2023, I would be happy with this contract. At the age of 36 come spring training, Carrasco's best days are almost assuredly behind him, but he can still take the ball every 5th day and give adequate work and that's all I'm really asking for from him. The Mets have a $14m option on Carlos with a $3m buyout, if the Mets do pick that up, I would switch this to someone like Jose Quintana.
Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Trade Liam Hendriks to the Dodgers for Austin Barnes and SP Ryan Pepiot. I needed a way to get rid of some payroll and Liam is the best way to do that with the amount he makes and the value he still holds. I would rather get rid of Graveman, but his value is lower and he makes less so I don't think it will be easy to find a partner for him. Barnes gives the Sox a veteran backup catcher and Pepiot has some upside. Pepiot is a borderline Top 100 prospect who got his first cup of coffee in the majors last year with the Dodgers. He did pretty well in 36 innings last year and his fastball graded out really well per Statcast, he should be able to help the Sox right away in the pen or in the rotation.
No. 2: Trade Gavin Sheets, Lenyn Sosa, Bryan Ramos, Andrew Dalquist and Garrett Crochet for Brandon Lowe and a minor league prospect. Truthfully, I don't really know how available Brandon Lowe is or if this package is enough to get this trade done. I'm hoping the Rays like the upside of Garrett Crochet and see Bryan Ramos and Lenyn Sosa as near Top 100 prospects. If they want other names from the farm, the Rays can have anyone not named Colson Montgomery or Oscar Colas. Brandon Lowe would be a huge addition to the Sox lineup as another righty masher that could slot in the top 5 of the order. Lowe struggled with injuries and performance in 2022, but he received MVP votes in both 2020 and 2021. He has 2 years left on his contract with 2 more team options for 25-26 so Lowe could solve 2nd base for the Sox through the entirety of their contention window. Lowe has hit .253/.335/.495 off of righties in his career so he would be a welcome addition to a lineup that is below average against right handed starters.
SUMMARY
Lineup vs Righties:
SS Anderson - $12.5m
2B Lowe - $5.25m
CF Robert - $9.5m
DH Jimenez - $10.33
RF Conforto - $17.33m
1B Vaughn - $0.75m
C Grandal - $18.25m
3B Moncada - $17.8m
LF Colas - $0.7m
Lineup vs Lefties:
SS Anderson
LF Pollock
CF Robert
DH Jimenez
1B Vaughn
RF Conforto
C Grandal/Barnes
3B Moncada/Mendick
2B Lowe
Bench: L. Garcia - $5.5m (Wouldn't mind a DFA here if they feel better about other options like Romy or Burger)
Bench: Mendick - $1m
Bench: Barnes - $3.5m
Bench: Pollock - $13m
SP: Cease $5.3m
SP: Lynn - $18.5m
SP: Kopech - $2.2m
SP: Giolito $10.8m
SP: Carassco - $6.5m
CL: Graveman - $8m
SU: Lopez - $3.3m
SU: Bummer - $3.75m
RP: Diekman - $3.5m
RP: Kelly - $9m
RP: Lambert - $0.715m
RP: Martin - $0.75m
RP: Pepiot - $0.75m
Harrison Buy out - $1.5m
I have this coming in right at $190m. Is it a perfect roster? No, but it has some upside and more balance than last year's roster. If you can get a bounce back from Giolito and better health for Lynn, you may have one of the best starting staffs in the AL. Lowe and Conforto help balance the lineup giving you two left handed hitting threats that can bat near the top of the lineup against righties. Pepiot has some upside and should be able to contribute right away. If he is not ready, he still has a few options to figure things out in Charlotte. I like the starting pitching depth better with this mix than last year. Carrasco is a bit of a risk with his health, but Pepiot and Martin can help carry the burden in case of any injuries or struggles from the top 5. Happy offseason everyone!
