PREAMBLE
Roster is a shambles, ill constructed, with prominent weakness throughout. Hahn was shining on fans with talk of WS contender for 22, while he failed during the offseason, and at the trade deadline, to fix holes. Not to say the team was willing and able to overcome TLR, and the injuries, either.
Take a wizard to extract this roster from the pitfalls they've created, regardless of manager. But strange things happen with baseball teams all the time, and we're probably fed up with going down into the SoX section of Hades...so one instead can pretend a big upswing is somehow possible. Even if one doesn't see how in hell it happens.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player and their projected 2022 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Lucas Giolito: $10.8M Tender...he gone after 23...see trade idea.
- Dylan Cease: $5.3M Tender.
- Reynaldo López; $3.3M Sign extend...has become usable anywhere in relief.
- Adam Engel: $2.3M...used to be worth it...what happened? Non tender.
- Michael Kopech: $2.2M...of course tender.
- Kyle Crick: $1.5M is he fully healthy?...need to know that.
- José Ruiz: $1M usable, seems to be gradually improving. Tender.
- Danny Mendick: $1M is he fully healthy?...need to know that.
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.
- Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) Pick up
- Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout) Buy out.
PLAYER OPTIONS
Write “exercised” or “takes buyout.” The question here is whether you think Pollock could do better than one year and $8 million on the open market. I’m filling it in with “exercised” unless you can provide a compelling argument against it.
- AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) Gone through Paint-into-Corner stupid roster construction
- Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) Mr. Intangibles Uber Alles...pay him the going rate, even if multiple years required; he's a winner, has solved how to pitch when old, and can raise the SoX Esprit de Corps. Plus most fun to watch of any SoX current player.
- Vince Velasquez ($3M) Can't SoX do better for mediocre backup starter? Letgo.
- Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) Wants to play SS, SoX can't play/pay him there. Letgo
MANAGER
This may soon be moot. But...
First I'd launch the entire training staff. Then I'd cease and desist on Boston and Ewing, and give Katz a raise and let him pick all his staff including bullpen coach. Probably Duncan JR goes too.
Menechino is a talented hitting coach, and we don't know what the guidance/ rules from TLR was this year. OTOH, players to be retained need a new voice, so if they can hire somebody as good or better than Menechino, do it.
The "Winner with Impossible Rosters" doesn't exist for the incoming manager pool AFAIK..and we hardly know any of the young guys suggested. Fegan even says one never knows what a new manager is going to be like, until you try him out, even veterans.
Ixnay on home grown-ay. Get a No-BS guy. The whole list, can teach defense, can speak Spanish, can blend Stats and Traditions...can handle a pen, and construct a lineup that can hit RH pitching etc etc etc. Unlikely such a man exists on the planet, but let's search and find out guys.
SoX should have someone in the decision makers that can do better than previous, but it's a scary process with scary results quite possible. No Name Here.
FREE AGENTS
List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract.
No. 1 No Name Here as Hahn already got out in front of "doing nothing much" with FA..."not throwing money at FA".
No. 2 SoX need an upgrade at starting C and it says here Contreras.
SoX need Cueto and Andrus for soul and baseball smarts.
SoX will get none of the above, just because.
See Cataya and Pepiot trade below.
No. 3 LH Outfielder: David Peralta Because cheap, and Tampa traded for him this past July and they usually know about such things. Fading at 35, but his bat likely decent plus as a LH part of a platoon.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade Yoán Moncada and Giolito to Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot starter/ reliever, Diego Cartaya C, Jorbit Vivas 2B
Dodgers among the top minor league systems presently. Cartaya would be the big get, #1 on some Dodger prospect lists, and since they have Smith already there, possibly available.
Pepiot #6 prospect played for Dodgers a bit in 22, and should be ready for 23 with notable upside. Starter or reliever.
Jorbit Vivas is a #16 Dodger prospect who bats LH, and ETA said 23. Compared to Arrarez as " quick, compact swing and tremendous feel for the barrel, allowing him to hit seemingly any type of pitch in any part of the strike zone. " Madrigal with more pop and fewer injuries? SoX badly need that sort of player.
Dodgers said to pass on 3B Justin Turner, and could use another veteran starter. Perhaps they don't want to rely on raw youth coming through in 23?
SoX need addition by subtraction with Moncada, and this is Giolito's last year anyway, and who knows what version he presents in 23.
SoX would probably need to help some $$ with Moncada's contract, but still come out ahead on salary trading Giolito, and get low cost youth with excellent upside to be solid C, add to rotation depth, and possibly fill 2B.
Montgomery might be the 3B in 24.
SUMMARY
There's things the FO could do to fix a lot, but not all, of roster problems. If past is prologue, we'll get another pricey reliever, and a past his prime position player, possibly LH.
The SoX projected salary they will pay is of course unknown today, but always includes some sweetener for JR's investment partners, which is why it's always this much and no further, based on some internal revenue calculations. All such salary projections for what JR will spend are guesses...is he still in a $200M mood, or have the winds of spending changed back? Dunno.
It's true there's still untapped potential from Eloy and Robert, maybe Vaughn too. That's a lot of potential runs right there. But we also know Abreu is gone, and not sure who else can really be counted on...maybe TA, who has carried the team at times, when healthy.
Pen is pricey, sometimes pretty good but not even in the top half for ERA.....
SoX pen ERA of 4.00, Astros pen ERA of 2.80, MallGuards pen ERA of 3.05.
Rotation is getting wobblier, rather than solid one through five, as we once hoped to see.
Defense seems almost impossible to become a plus with this roster...so one can hope at best to become average, somehow, with new blood, new coaching, new attitudes.
SoX don't currently come close to matching up to Astros, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Braves on paper, but we'll find out again tonight if the wild card doesn't have to actually match up to 100 win teams to succeed.
