The One Where We Trade Giolito

PREAMBLE

The Sox rise from the American League cellar has been nothing short of crazy. From cutting up jerseys to once in a generation pandemics we’ve seen it all. Now, just as things seem to be rolling with the franchises first back-to-back postseason appearances, we may be about to experience a work stoppage that could threaten the 2022 season! For baseball fans, and specifically us White Sox fans, things are nuts! So hey, as the great Michael Keaton once said “You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts!”

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

  • Lucas Giolito: $7.9M – TENDER – I said I’d get nuts not demented. Of Course Gio is coming back
  • Reynaldo López; $2.8M – TENDER – I don’t like it… but what the heck. One. Last. Ride.
  • Evan Marshall: $2.3M – DECLINE – This screams that Garrett Richards/Padres deal from a couple years back. 2 years 3 million.  500k in 2022 and 2.5 million in 2023
  • Adam Engel: $2.2M – TENDER – What a strange career this guy has had. We need our Engel in the outfield
  • Brian Goodwin: $1.7M – DECLINE – If you had told me after that walk off homerun vs Cleveland I’d be non-tendering this guy in November… I’d have believed you. Nice bat-flip though!
  • Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M – TENDER – Eeh what the hey. I’d offer him 1 million. Reminds me of Jace Fry last year taking .86 mil … speaking of Jace Fry
  • Jace Fry: $1M – TENDER – This guy is like the Anti-Adam Engel. I don’t know why he’s still around. He just gets worse and worse the longer we hold onto him… But he’s a lefty so what the hell

CLUB OPTIONS

  • Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout) – PICK UP – If reports are to be believed this is already a done deal
  • César Hernández: $6M – DECLINE – I had such mediocre hopes for you… and you couldn’t even rise to that. Also you look like Eric Andre, maybe you can find work in that?

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

  • Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021) RETAIN – 3 years 10.5 million (breakdown 3.5 per season) – He’s probably going to be popular in free agency but I think this gets it done. A little more than I’d like but he learned how to take a walk last year and is versatile.
  • Carlos Rodón ($3M) – LET GO – WHERE THE HELL HAS THAT BEEN? Last year you were about to leave the elevator after farting in it. Thanks for coming back to spray some Febreeze.
  • Billy Hamilton ($1M) – LET GO – This honestly kinda hurts. He’s to the White Sox what Brian Scalebrene was during the Thibs days? Remember? Ugh such fun. Bring him back on a minor league deal with an invite to spring though. Fun guy.
  • Ryan Tepera ($950K) – RE-SIGN – 2 years at 8.5 million with a 3rd year mutual option for 4.5 million. Includes a 1.5 million option if Tepera exercises his mutual option and the team declines so essentially it’s either a 3 year 13 million dollar deal or a 2 year 10 million dollar deal. Sounds good to me!

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: SP Kevin Gausman – 5 years 120 million (Structure it like the Zack Wheeler contract)

He was great last year but his track record isn’t tremendous and he’s over 30. If you have to go to a 6th years at 140 million do it.

No. 2: 2B Chris Taylor – 4 years 50 million (12.5 million per year)

He strikes out a lot but so do I haha… oh god. Anyway, he can slide in at the back of our lineup easily and hit a few home runs and cover a few position. He’s our Ben Zobrist.

No. 3: C Yan Gomes or C Manny Pina or C Roberto Perez or C Robinson Chirinos – 1 year 3 million

Call him Felix Pie cuz Zack Collins is a AAAA player. Lovely guy I’m sure but not a catcher and cant hit in the majors.

TRADES

No. 1: Three Team Trade (I ran it through baseball trade values simulator and unbelievably it worked)

CHW ACQUIRE: SP Zac Gallen, CF Ketel Marte

LAA ACQUIRE: SP Lucas GIolito, SP Dallas Keuchel, CP Craig Kimbrel

ARI ACQUIRE: SP Garrett Crochet, CF Jo Adell, RF Brandon Marsh, RHP Jack Kochanowicz

This would be a massive trade in terms of both talent and money being moved. But in my opinion not an impossible one.

ARIZONA – Arizona is awful and while they may want to wait to see what they could get later on down the road for Zac Gallen and Ketel Marte (both are under team control for three and four more years, respectively) but neither has had the best track record in terms of injury history and this return is quite substantial, in my opinion they may be willing to deal for this package rather than take the risk. The team is going nowhere next year and in this move I believe they are getting peak value for their ace and star outfielder.

LOS ANGELES – They need pitching. They’ve needed pitching for years and now they’ll get pitching. Recency bias is strong and we can quickly forget how good these players have been. Dallas Keuchel had a 1.99 ERA in 2020 and finished top 10 in Cy Young Award voting. Craig Kimbrel was the best closer in baseball when he was in that position last year. There is a reason we gave up Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer to get him. This is something of a salary dump to accommodate the free agency moves, I won’t lie to you. But don’t kid yourself. Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel could very well serve as valuable pieces to a playoff capable Los Angeles Angels team in 2022 if this trade were to go down. They won’t get peak value in Jo Adell so long as Trout is in center and Brandon Marsh is like the Angels Gavin Sheets. He had little value at the start of the year but a strong showing increased his value to the point he’d be seen as an addition in a trade not just a throw in. This is a high price to pay but three years of a cost controlled ace like Giolito will cost a pretty penny.

CHICAGO – Because of the structure of previous free agent moves, getting the salary of Keuchel and Kimbrel will be critical and I’d be willing to talk about any player outside of the Sox top 5 prospects that Arizona would want to sweeten the pot. Saying goodbye to Giolito would be hard but I think when you look at the complete roster at the bottom of the page you would agree that offloading him in conjunction with the other moves made for a far deeper coherent roster.

SUMMARY

26 – MAN ROSTER

LINEUP

SS – Tim Anderson
RF – Ketel Marte
CF – Luis Robert
1B – Jose Abreu
C – Yasmani Grandal
3B – Yoan Moncada
LF – Eloy Jimenez
DH – Andrew Vaughn or Gavin Sheets
2B – Chris Taylor

BENCH

C – FREE AGENT CATCHER

UTL – Leury Garcia
UTL – Danny Mendick or OF Billy Hamilton
OF – Adam Engel

ROTATION

SP – Kevin Gausman
SP – Lance Lynn
SP – Dylan Cease
SP – Zac Gallen
SP – Michael Kopech

BULLPEN

CP – Liam Hendricks
LHP – Aaron Bummer
LHP – Jace Fry
RHP – Ryan Tepera
RHP – Reynaldo Lopez
RHP – Jose Ruiz
RHP – Ryan Burr
RHP – Jimmy Cordero

Strictly factoring in the players on the 26 man roster this team sits at approximately 175.31 million in payroll and not a hole to be found on the roster! There may be a need for more bullpen help but I’d rather have other teams sign the guys and see how they pan out in 2022 than have the Sox gamble on a guy and hope for the best. The Sox will also have plenty of depth to trade from as their only trade this offseason was moving guys OFF the major league roster. Andrew Vaughn could very well start the year at AAA that’s how you know you’re deep!

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As Cirensica

Interesting trade of Giolito. I myself am entertaining the idea of trading Giolito as well.

TaterTadahito

Kudos for the creativity with the 3-way trade and Taylor is probably the most realistic FA upgrade at 2B for this team. I’m not averse to trading Giolito given he’s a FA after next year, but ideally his spot at the top of the rotation would be filled by someone more dependable than Gausman, like maybe finding a way to clear enough room to sign Scherzer or Ray (who would balance the rotation with a LHP).

I was intrigued by Gallen when we were still rebuilding, but since last year was the first time he threw as many as 120 innings, and it resulted in his worst year yet, I don’t think now is the time to roll the dice, especially if you’re trading Gio and replacing him with Gausman.

warningtrackpower

Giving up Gio, Crochet, Kimbrel, and Keuchel for Marte and Gallen seems like an overpay to me. I think Gio has more value himself than Marte and Gallen. Though I also shipped some of Jerry’s money out the door just to get rid of Keuchel and Kimbrel in my plan.

I thought about sacrificing Crochet to get an upgrade in the rotation too but think he’s a piece we’ll need in the bullpen with Kopech going to the rotation.