John the G’s Offseason Plan
PREAMBLE
Currently, the White Sox have $126.85M allocated to next year’s 2022 team, and that’s even before club options and arbitration kick in. I am budgeting this year with $170M, (which I slightly exceed), because that’s what Sox Machine recommends.
My main strategy is to keep the strengths of this team intact, but to improve upon all of the areas of weakness.
I’m sure this doesn’t happen on the dot, but my hope is that Kenny and Rick at least employ the same school of thought that I do here
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
• Lucas Giolito: $7.9M – Extend 7 Years $150M 12.5M, 17.5M, 22.5M, 22.5M, 25M, 25M, 25M. Letting him walk after next season would be a mistake. A thought could be to trade him this/ next offseason, but that would hurt in the present.
• Reynaldo López; $2.8M – Tender
• Evan Marshall: $2.3M – Non-tender
• Adam Engel: $2.2M – Tender
• Brian Goodwin: $1.7M – Non-tender
• Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M – Tender. Good stuff and great ground ball guy. Ricky did him dirty
• Jace Fry: $1M – Non-tender. 0 confidence when he comes into pitch. We can get a lefty on a minor league deal if needed
2022 obligation- 18.7M
CLUB OPTIONS
• Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout) – pick up… grab the popcorn
• César Hernández: $6M – decline
2022 Obligation – 16M
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
• Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021) –
1 year $4M -he’s earned himself a reason to keep him around another year
• Carlos Rodón ($3M)
QO 1 year $18.4M- Accepts. – Scott Boras isn’t known for letting his players take the qualifying offer, however this is where it makes sense. If he performs well and stays healthy, he’ll earn what Robbie Ray will get this offseason.
• Billy Hamilton ($1M) – give him a minor league deal offer
• Ryan Tepera ($950K)
• 2 years $12M 3rd year option $6 Mil $1M buyout
2022 Obligation $28.4M
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Michael Conforto (one year, $16 million). I don’t think he gets a QO. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think this can be a good 1 yr prove it deal like the Braves always hit on. This will allow us to see if Sheets, Cespedes or Colas can successfully fill this void in 2023
(if I am wrong about the QO, I would not recommend signing him for just 1 year. If that is the case, I would flex the budget and sign Castellanos if possible, since Conforto on a multi-year deal seems too risky for my liking)
2022 Obligation 16M
TRADES
No. 1: Trade Andrew Vaughn for Gavin Lux, pitching prospect Ryan Pepiot, and 2 lesser prospects. BaseballTradeValues has Vaughn possessing considerably higher trade value than Lux, for good reason. White Sox need a second baseman after declining Cesar’s option and need bats who can hit RHPs. Lux will be expendable to the Dodgers if either Taylor or Seager are resigned and Vaughn is playing 1B/ outfield for them. Pepiot is near the majors and can be a part of this rotation/ bullpen sooner rather than later.
No. 2: Trade Craig Kimbrel along with $8M of his contract for a top 5 organizational prospect wherever. This price isn’t particularly close to Madrigal and Heuer, but we aren’t going to get that anyways. Still, it is worth it to pick up the option and do this, as it is similar in a way to signing an expensive, but more certain international free agent, in that you are choosing someone with high potential who has probably proven himself in the States. This could be with any buyer who needs a closer
No. 3: Trade Dallas Keuchel along with $10M of his contract for a top 15 organizational prospect wherever. I wouldn’t mind keeping Keuchel around because his soft tossing make our other pitchers’ fastballs look even faster, and he can bounce back, but my budget doesn’t allow it. This trade is similar to Sox trading for Ivan Nova in 2019 and paying around $9M for him, but Keuchel’s track record is better.
2022 Obligation -16M
SUMMARY
This puts the 2022 White Sox payroll at a grand total of $173.95 million dollars
This offseason would be perfect because:
• We don’t lose any major contributors from the 2021 season
• We strengthen the team’s weakness (hitting RHPs)
• Rebuilt the farm system in the process (having arguably the worst farm system in baseball isn’t a recipe for sustained success)
In a perfect world, Marcus Semien would be the top target and sign to play 2nd, but going after him in a bidding war could mean missing out on too many other players.
26 man roster/ lineup/ rotation :
vs RHP vs LHP
SS Anderson R SS Anderson R
3B Moncada S CF Robert R
1B Abreu R 1B Abreu R
C Grandal S C Grandal S
CF Robert R LF Jimenez R
RF Conforto L 3B Moncada S
LF Jimenez R RF Engel R
DH Sheets L DH Conforto/ Sheets L
2B Lux L 2B Lux/ Garcia L/S
Rotation Bullpen
1 Giolito Closer Hendriks
2 Lynn Setup Bummer
3 Rodón 7th Tepera
4 Cease Middle Cordero
5 Kopech Middle Ruiz
Long Crochet (Kopech’s role)
Long Lopez
Bench:
Garcia
Sheets/ Engel
Backup catcher (Mercedes/Collins/Zavala)
González
1 spot up for grabs.. Either Foster, Lambert or a minor league free agent will likely win it
Yea backup catcher stinks, but if that’s still a need, Sox could use some of deadline budget. (I’m also still a big believer in Mercedes’ bat FWIW)
Adolfo conundrum:
I’ve recently been made aware that Micker Adolfo is out of options. I’d say keep him for if somebody gets injured before season, and trade him before season if not needed. Also, could be used as a deal-sweetener in other trades if a team feels not enough is offered.
Author
Solid plan. But I think you need to double check the budget. Per spotrac, Sox currently sit at $152 million for payroll. With your moves I have this roster looking around $185.
For what it’s worth, I think Leury’s and Tepera’s values are switched. Leury will, I think, garner close to 6 or 7 million AAV on the open market. Tepera I have pegged closer to 2 million. I seem to be in the minority reading other OPPs tonight.