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Analysis

Doubling* the 2021 White Sox’s numbers at the halfway** point

DETROIT, MI – JULY 02: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lance Lynn (33) looks for the pitch sign during the first inning of a regular season Major League Baseball game between the Chicago White Sox and the Detroit Tigers on July 2, 2021 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire)

I was out of the contiguous United States when the White Sox reached the precise halfway point of the 2021 season, but I'm not going to let a mere few games get in the way of my annual 162-game-schedule tradition of extrapolating half a season into a full one to get a better idea of how individual seasons are coming together. It just requires asterisks for the pedants out there:

*Multiplying by 1.93
**84-game

As always, I've mapped out the extrapolated seasons for position players and pitchers -- bWAR for everybody except catchers, who get Baseball Prospectus' WARP. I've also included five notes for each. Feel free to point out the numbers that jump out most to you. I tried not to hog all the observations for myself.

POSITION PLAYERS

PlayerGPARH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBKBA/OBP/SLGOPS+GDPHBPWAR
Yasmani Grandal*122475816660277300116124.188/.388/.4361301924.8
José Abreu15164183141232291202054156.253/.331/.45711723172.3
Nick Madrigal10441558118198441242133.305/.349/.425115662.7
Tim Anderson135598951682901254271231137.298/.335/.411107623.3
Yoan Moncada1436086613927210714295156.278/.400/.3981244104.2
Andrew Vaughn1354886810633015424039125.246/.312/.4291041081.7
Luis Robert481992158172215821454.316/.359/.463127001.5
Adam Eaton110415627115410524039102.200/.299/.3467910120.4
Yermin Mercedes131506501251721471023989.271/.328/.4041031421.2
Leury Garcia131475621041544664244112.251/.320/.335831002.1
Zack Collins*852662752170637223385.225/.321/.3759420-0.6
Danny Mendick93247234460433022960.211/.315/.29472240.2
Jake Lamb601913137401019002554.224/.333/.424109420.4
Billy Hamilton831662935104419120654.225/.250/.41380201.0
Brian Goodwin39151273122617001935.254/.351/.507135000.6
Adam Engel19621014006820212.241/313/.552134241.2

TAKEAWAYS

No. 1: We'll find about Yasmani Grandal's status later in the day, but chances are that he won't be available enough to come close to completing what appeared to be one of the most idiosyncratic successes in White Sox history. There's nobody who has come close to a 130 OPS+ with an average below .200, although I doubt Grandal's average would've finished the year below the Mendoza Line based on the form he showed throughout June. Even with a more normal average, he was on pace to be the first White Sox player with more than 110 walks since Frank Thomas in 2000.

No. 2: José Abreu's line looks like an aberration compared to last year's MVP form, but it couldn't be more in line with his career norms when looking at his OPS+ column over the years.

    • 2018: 117
    • 2019: 117
    • 2020: 165
    • 2021: 117

Throw in another 100+ RBI season and a league-leading total of double plays, and there might not be a season more Abreu than this one.

No. 3: You now have to round up to get Yoán Moncada's home run total to double digits for the year. In 2020, it was COVID-19. This year, it's a shoulder issue followed by a hand problem, with a sinus infection in there as well. He's once again found a way to make himself useful despite the lack of pop, most notably in the walk column, but it'd be cool if he could post a monster month before the end of the season. There are the obvious benefits, but it's more that the White Sox need to know if they've been planning around a game that's seldom going to come together.

No. 4: Leury García is back on track for a 2 WAR season despite the hellish start he and everybody else endured. Also, there hasn't been a player with fewer than five homers and more than 60 RBIs in a season since Luis Aparicio in 1960.

(Aside: I feel like 3.5 RBIs per homer marks the starting point of an aesthetically pleasing ratio between those two columns. I loved finding baseball cards where a guy had 100 RBIs with fewer than 10 homers. On the other side of that spectrum, I don't like what Jake Lamb is up to.)

No. 5: Combine Billy Hamilton and Brian Goodwin, and you basically get Adam Engel's production. It's just more useful to have that coming from one roster spot than two, because to have Goodwin's bat in the lineup, you have to endure Goodwin's routes.

PITCHERS

NameW-LERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBKHBPERA+WAR
Lucas Giolito12-124.20333301901609589356022421011.7
Dallas Keuchel12-64.48313101741851028723581064950.4
Lance Lynn16-62.02292901631144437155419122116.0
Carlos Rodón12-62.372727016110244421450235121805.6
Dylan Cease14-84.143333016814783771971214121031.7
Liam Hendriks6-42.57710416846231912810221661.9
Codi Heuer8-25.1864006479373781268283-0.4
Jose Ruiz0-23.005800644825218196401430.8
Aaron Bummer2-83.266204585031214338321310.2
Evan Marshall0-45.6520052543333101750077-0.6
Michael Kopech6-01.672960623912126238702562.3
Matt Foster4-26.57460047583735141762465-1.2
Garrett Crochet4-82.814800494221152316221531.0
Ryan Burr2-01.932320288442152303621.4
Zack Burdi061200172514126812473-0.2

TAKEAWAYS

No. 1: If Lance Lynn ends up with 6 WAR or better, the White Sox basically won their half of the trade at the individual level. There's still the matter of whether the White Sox's team-wide vision holds up, but that's what veteran ballast looks like, especially when Lucas Giolito's season is mildly disappointing.

PERTINENT: What would a Lance Lynn extension with the White Sox even look like?

No. 2: Dallas Keuchel's WAR is noticeably low for 174 innings of roughly league-average ERA until you look at the total of unearned runs that's masking some issues. This might be why he's paying more attention to defensive positioning than most.

(Aside: Zack Wheeler looks like the front-runner in the NL Cy Young race, on pace for 220 innings and 10 WAR. The White Sox were right to like him.)

No. 3: You take that season from Dylan Cease. You take 235 strikeouts from Carlos Rodón and get the qualifying offer ready.

No. 4: When you look at the performance of White Sox righties, it becomes harder to see Michael Kopech avoiding confinement to the bullpen unless multiple arms materialize, whether from within or outside.

No. 5: On the subject of getting what they paid for, Liam Hendriks' season will play.

(Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire)

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