The three White Sox spring training story lines that matter

(Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire)

Although you may not believe it from a look outside your window, spring training has arrived. White Sox pitchers and catchers report today during their most anticipated February since 2006. Hell, considering everything Earth has endured since the last time the White Sox congregated at Camelback Ranch, it might be the most anticipated preseason that didn’t involve a world war.

While falling case counts and rising immunization totals make normalcy far easier to forecast, the persistent threat of COVID-19 is still going to drain some of the charm from the proceedings. Attendance will be limited to 25 percent, and there may be less of a need to enforce it if fans aren’t flocking south.

Nevertheless, this spring is far likelier to reach completion than the last time around, and that’s a welcome development. So too is the idea of pitchers and catchers reporting for a White Sox team that made the postseason the year before. Said postseason may have been an expanded one, but they expect to make the cut in even the standard format, and fans will be eager to hold them to that.

The rush from the mere sight of baseball players doing baseball things always wears off well before Opening Day, but while I’ll be watching all the webcasts and charting the results because it’s my job, I’ll be watching three areas in particular, and trying my best to relegate the rest to noise in a format that hopefully you’ll enjoy reading about.

TONY LA RUSSA

The first time Tony La Russa spoke to the media following the White Sox, he had to respond to the surprise of those who thought a manager who spent nine years away from dugouts — during which he complained about players he deemed too demonstrative, disrespectful and apparently insincere — was the right choice to lead a team full of entertaining, energetic young talent.

The second time Tony La Russa spoke to the media, he had to explain a guilty plea for reckless driving after his second arrest for driving under the influence.

Thanks to the baggage, and the pandemic limiting the interactions of White Sox leadership to only environments controlled (Zoom calls) and friendly (Bob Nightengale chit-chats), the team’s side hasn’t been willing or able to paint much of a picture of La Russa himself. We’ve instead had to piece it together from third parties like his new coaches, and acquisitions like Liam Hendriks and Lance Lynn. Skeptics like Tim Anderson have warmed a little, although everybody still needs to see what this looks like when La Russa is actually in uniform and running the show.

Whatever you think of La Russa, it’s a positive sign that the coaching staff is more than a reunion of old favorites for One More Job. While unproven, Ethan Katz’s history and attitude makes him a suitable hire for any White Sox manager, and Miguel Cairo is an inspired idea for a bench coach. And even though La Russa couldn’t bear the thought of returning to the dugout without a Duncan, it’s Shelley instead of Dave, and in a brand new role of analytics coordinator.* If the Sox feared that La Russa might be behind the times, everybody’s worked to redesign the coaching staff into something that shouldn’t make the manager a bottleneck of information.

(*Eno Sarris and Britt Ghiroli posted an article on Tuesday about how the analytics coodinator/quality control/quality assurance coaching role has evolved over the years).

These should alleviate the concerns that the time away is going to slow him down, which are concerns I don’t share. He’s generally adapted his style to fit the talent on hand, and while he might be prickly about exuberance, he’s defended his own players to the point of outright hypocrisy. He generally doesn’t care what people think … except for that one time when he stormed another team’s broadcasting booth because he didn’t like what they said.

La Russa contains such multitudes, and so he has a history of doghousing well-regarded players — J.D. Drew, Scott Rolen, Colby Rasmus — to varying results. That’s tolerable when a machine like St. Louis’ player development system churns out replacements at the ready, but the White Sox only have front-line players right now. If he starts ragging on Anderson or Eloy Jiménez or Dylan Cease or whichever player isn’t made in the typical La Russa mold, the Sox won’t have anybody worthwhile to take those starts.

Spring training might be able to give us some indication of how these personalities are going to mesh, akin to the way Kenny Williams set the wrong tone for the Nick Swisher era by chewing him out from a golf cart. A good start seems more important than usual, because if it goes south quick, who’s going to have whose back? The front office chose the players, but it didn’t pick La Russa. Reinsdorf’s White Sox of the last decade have a rich history of tangling their chain of command, then strangling themselves with it.

ROSTER BATTLES

It’s pretty easy to come up with a 26-man roster with a fair amount of confidence, especially if you give yourself some grace and treat “Opening Day” as “the plan for 85 percent of the season.”

Position playerPOSPitchersThrows
Yasmani GrandalCLucas GiolitoRHP
José Abreu1BDallas KeuchelLHP
Nick Madrigal2BLance LynnRHP
Yoán Moncada3BDylan CeaseRHP
Tim AndersonSSCarlos RodónLHP
Eloy JiménezLFJimmy CorderoRHP
Luis RobertCFJace FryLHP
Adam EatonRFMatt FosterRHP
Zack CollinsCGarrett CrochetLHP
Adam EngelOFEvan MarshallRHP
Leury GarcíaUTCodi HeuerRHP
Danny MendickIFAaron BummerLHP
Andrew VaughnDHLiam HendriksRHP


The names in green are the ones who don’t look like locks to me.

Zack Collins: He has the edge over Jonathan Lucroy because he’s on a full 40-man roster, but it could also depend on what kind of opt-out language Lucroy has in his contract. If Lucroy looks like a rebound candidate and has the right to explore other options in April, the White Sox might want to retain Collins at Triple-A for depth. Collins could benefit from regular at-bats of any kind after spending most of the 2020 season in purgatory, at least early. Maybe not so much after a month.

Danny Mendick: He lost his spot on the postseason-bound team to an inactive Yolmer Sánchez last year, so he still has some proving to do. That said, if La Russa doesn’t want Leury García as the only backup infield option, then there aren’t any other options in the 40-man. Tim Beckham lurks if they want to dip into the NRI pool.

Andrew Vaughn: Unless the White Sox have a move up their sleeve, there isn’t an immediately satisfying answer to DH. Vaughn should be great in the long run, but it’s unnecessarily risky to saddle him with the output of a bat-only position without any actual-game experience above A-ball. But then you have Collins and Yermín Mercedes, who should have received more playing time last year if they were candidates to be entrusted with so much responsibility this year. The White Sox’s attitude seems to be “Vaughn better be good, he’s a first-round pick!”, which sounds more like meatball fandom than an actual plan.

Carlos Rodón: It appears as though he has the inside track for the fifth-starter job if he’s fully functional, if only because Reynaldo López still has an option remaining. With Rodón, he’s seldom fully functional, hence the uncertainty (and $3 million price tag).

Jimmy Cordero: Familiarity bred contempt for Cordero last year, who didn’t deserve to pitch as often as Rick Renteria used him. A different manager might rejuvenate him, although it’s worth noting that his sinker-changeup combo wasn’t as effective last year, even before the overuse. López could land here as a long reliever if five better starters loom above him, or maybe José Ruiz, who is out of options.

HEALTH

Back when the White Sox were congratulating themselves for their silver medal in the Manny Machado derby, Kenny Williams loaded up with pine tar for some incredible spin rate on their incentive-laden offer.

“People are lost on the fact that on a yearly basis, our offer was more than San Diego’s. The average annual value was $31 [million] and change. So it was about years guaranteed. So there is an argument that could be made that our offer was the better of the two. It certainly had more upside for him.”

Capped off by one killer caveat:

“All he had to do was basically stay healthy.’’

I’ve already reached my monthly limit on rehashing the Machado thing, but blame the White Sox for injecting fresh life into that line by stopping after Liam Hendriks. “Basically stay healthy” is the idea, at least until the trade deadline nears. The White Sox’s solution for their rotation depth issue was Carlos Rodón, fresh off multiple seasons of being the cause of the White Sox’s rotation depth issues. In his defense, he’s more promising than their ideas for backup catcher (Lucroy, who might be more metal than man) and DH (nobody).

The White Sox are running out a one-ply roster as a result. It’s a great ply, but Vaughn is their entire impact offensive depth, and Michael Kopech is their impact rotation depth. The entire outfield has missed chunks of time over recent seasons, along with half the infield. Their starting nine and five-man rotation stack up well against the rest of baseball, but the depth is where they fall behind in projections, and it’s how they’re most likely to fall behind in the actual standings. It just doesn’t seem like a great idea when the threat of a COVID-19 outbreak can shelve sections of the roster at a time.

The hope is that a 60-game season reduced wear and tear in the big picture; that Katz has fresh ideas for fresh arms; that nobody’s going to lose themselves in the high skies of Arizona and crash into railings or bodies. As long as the velocity readings, innings and plate appearances are where they need to be, I’m not going to sweat how players perform. It’s not like there are other options for the positions. Everybody just needs to get to the post for Opening Day, because La Russa is supposed to know how to take them from there.

(Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire)

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As Cirensica

I honestly don’t like the idea of Vaughn starting his major league career as a DH. The kid has barely had any professional baseball experience, and the FO is already cutting him off the field? That can’t help his development if there is hope he can wear a 1B glove for some years. Treating him like a bat only JD Martinez at 22 yo? I don’t know. Is that really a good approach?

Last edited 3 years ago by As Cirensica
Foulkelore

Yeah, fair point, but Vaughn will be playing some 1B this year. I know Abreu doesn’t like DH and wants to play every day, but this isn’t a 60 game schedule. They’ll have to give Abreu some days off and some days at DH, even if he doesn’t get injured. At the risk of upsetting the fictional version of Ron Washington, first base isn’t shortstop. It shouldn’t be stunting Vaughn’s future at 1B too much to primarily use him as a bat this year.

Kittles on a Rooftop

This is precisely why I never understood the handwringing over a DH.

There will be quite a few PAs from Abreu, Jimenez, and Grandal to give them some rest in the field/get better defense, depending on matchups.

patrick

I mean it’s a way to find a guy that provides absolutely 0 value in the field but can mash – e.g. Nelson Cruz. So you don’t need to find 3-5 tools, you just really need 1-2. The fact that the Sox haven’t been able to find a guy with 1 even mediocre tool in the past half decade is beyond baffling (TWSS).

patrick

As an edit, yea it’s great they can get at bats from those guys. But it would be even better to be able to actually rest your starters rather than rely on them for offensive output during their “off” days because you can’t find someone that hits the ball.

Kittles on a Rooftop

Of course they will get days off. You don’t need Nelson Cruz for that though. And these guys don’t need a day off every week, the schedule already basically does that.

Kittles on a Rooftop

Gotcha, so you want to find a guy that can only hit and add zero other value to the team, that’s the argument? You know what the definition of insanity is, right?

The fact that the Sox haven’t been able to find a guy with 1 even mediocre tool in the past half decade is beyond baffling

It’s really not. The reason you don’t get guys like this is for this very reason. If that 1 tool doesn’t work, then they are absolutely worthless. See: DH Position, White Sox (2010-2020*)

Mark Kotsay
Manny Ramirez
Adam Dunn
Adam LaRoche
Avisail Garcia
Matt Davidson
Justin Morneau
Cody Asche
Matt Skole
Nicky Delmonico
Yonder Alonso
Zack Collins
AJ Reed
Daniel Palka
Edwin Encarnacion

patrick

I’m not sure my argument was “sign Cody Asche”

I also notice you included one of the players that many are assuming will DH if Vaughn doesn’t or can’t go. Which doesn’t exactly seem like the solution either.

No one would have been sad to sign Nelson Cruz. Nelson Cruz can’t do anything except hit.

Kittles on a Rooftop

No one was sad when Encarnacíon was signed either…

Oddvark

This sounds good in theory, and I do like having the opportunity to give guys some partial days off without losing their bats in the lineup. But doing that kind of means the replacement guys (Collins, Leury, Engel, Mendick) provide the effective DH at-bats even if they are not actually DH-ing.

Kittles on a Rooftop

They are also significantly upgrading the defense in LF and likely 1B when Grandal spells Abreu there. It also saves Grandal’s knees and (should) add more value to the back end of his contract.

There’s simply too many poor defenders or aging sluggers or guys that need a day off behind the plate to say it was necessary to sign a guy who offers nothing else.

They absolutely should have addressed backup catcher and a LH utility player, which would make this an easier argument. But regardless, if Vaughn can hit, this handwringing will seem silly by year’s end.

HallofFrank

What’s the alternative? You could leave him in the minors until Jose is gone, but that seems egregious, or you could move Jose to DH.

In reality, it’s probably somewhere in between, as Foulkelore said: Vaughn will be the primary DH, but he’ll likely get some starts at 1B, too. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got 30+ starts there, depending on how good he is defensively.

Jason.Wade17

Astros did it in 2019 with a young Yordan Alvarez. And they went to the World Series that year…

soxfan

Saw this on Facebook. Must’ve been written by a Sox fan.

Service time manipulation

So, folks, I don’t know who needs to hear this
But pitchers and catchers report today.
It’s so cold that you would not be remiss
If you had missed the news amongst the fray.

The joy of the game and crack of the bat
The slap of the mitt and the crackerjack.
Batters and catchers enjoying a chat
About photos the batter may want back.

The fastball finds the fat part of the plate
And our rookie swings with all of his might
The fielder sprints back, a galloping gait,
Jumps at the wall but does not have the height.

The dugout cheers, “You’ll be talk of the town.”
Skip says, “Good job. You’re still getting sent down.”

To Err is Herrmann

All of those story lines combine into one big story line which has all the makings of a classic Disney channel movie, “South Side Story.” The grizzled, cantankerous, elderly manager with a load of baggage must adjust to an exuberant, young, outspoken team and rely on unproven prospects to get to the World Series. In the decisive game, a rash of injuries leave the fate of the franchise in the hands of a ragtag group of moptops from single-A and double-A. ball. The grizzled manager ignores pressure from analytics guys in suits and by his instincts guides the youngsters, still green, to the championship vindicating the vision of the 85-year-old owner who dared to be unlike the Yankees and the Dodgers. Something like that.

As Cirensica

Oh my God…it is true! We are fucked.

asinwreck

Sondheim is still alive; get him on this project!

Foulkelore

If only there was a realistic equivalent of the knuckle-puck that could be replicated to baseball somehow.

Kittles on a Rooftop

Shingo Takatsu doing anything these days?

joewho112

So is LaRusso going to start dating Tim Anderson’s mom?

roke1960

Great analysis as usual, Jim.

I think the LaRussa hiring was covered pretty well yesterday. Would I have made that move if I were the Sox.? Almost certainly not, considering the baggage he brings with him, and the other quality hires available at the time. But now that ST is finally here, we’ll see what he brings to the table. As a manager, I think he will be fine. As an goodwill ambassador for the Sox, not so much.

You really nailed the last 2. The one guy I am intrigued with is Burdi. He almost certainly won’t start the season in Chicago, but his stuff was really good last year. With a full spring and first part of the season to iron things out, he could be a pretty valuable weapon by mid-season.

The depth issue is the most concerning. They didn’t need to get Springer, Bauer or Ozuna. But adding Rosario, Quintana, Flowers, and a guy like Brad Miller for less than $25M would have allowed Vaughn to start in AAA, and given them much needed quality depth. But for some reason (well we know it’s cheapness), they decided to roll the dice with a high quality 20-man roster. Which is really stupid. But as they say, “Play Ball!!”

Kittles on a Rooftop

But adding Rosario, Quintana, Flowers, and a guy like Brad Miller for less than $25M would have allowed Vaughn to start in AAA, and given them much needed quality depth.

This is my biggest qualm about the off-season. It wouldn’t have taken much to round out the roster, and personally, I would remove Rosario. Quintana, Flowers, and Miller give you the chance to let younger guys develop at their own pace and gives you a quality DH rotation for guys that you want to keep fresh over 162 (Abreu, Grandal, and Jiminez come to mind).

knoxfire30

My excitement level is at a 7 and I can’t get the fact that it isn’t a rock solid 10 out of my head. Instead of blasting thunderstruck ready to run thru a wall and purchasing way too many tickets with no idea if fans are even gonna be able to attend games, this feels more like another day on the calendar and i’m in pure wait and see mode about 1/4 of the roster. A world series bound team shouldn’t have that much volatility but ownership has ridiculously handcuffed the 25 man roster and in doing so my excitement level. I promise to ramp up more positively as the season approaches, the players seem to be great on and off the field and we all can’t help who owns the franchise. Here’s to a successful 2021 jerry be damned!

dwjm3

I was a 9 at the end of last season. I am probably a 5 or 6 now. They did nothing to build any excitement this offseason.

Kittles on a Rooftop

Wait a minute. So you’re telling me that you were more excited about a lesser team, with several key players struggling badly, coming off a playoff loss than you are about a better, healthier team where the AL, and more specifically the division, got worse?

Y’all some debbie downers around here…

dwjm3

I was more excited at the end of last season because I was anticipating a serious effort to upgrade the roster this offseason. Instead we got this half hearted attempt to fill out a roster that puts saving a buck before contending. We also got a manager who was hired simply because Jerry regretted firing him around the time Oldsmobile was stilling selling a million cars a year.

Consequently, we are now in the heart of our window of contention with a roster that isn’t even better than the Twins on paper.

Kittles on a Rooftop

Consequently, we are now in the heart of our window of contention with a roster that isn’t even better than the Twins on paper.

You can’t possibly be serious.

dwjm3

Look at the Pecota projection….We aren’t better than the Twins…

Oddvark

/thread

Kittles on a Rooftop

Pecota?! That’s your argument?

I think you should probably dive deeper into those numbers. They assume a down year from every player but Giolito. What are the odds that Anderson and Abreu regress terribly, Madrigal is worth almost nothing, the rotation is average, Moncada doesn’t bounce back, Eaton is replacement level, and Robert/Jimenez don’t get any better at all? Because you need to assume all that for the Twins to be better, which pecota does.

roke1960

You summed it up perfectly, knoxfire.

patrick

I’m at a 10, bring it the f on. I’m over being stuck in my house, and now it’s snowing another 6″ in Memphis on top of the 6′ we just got.

Honestly if the wheels fall off and they crash through the central like the Hindenburg, whatever, at least we get to watch baseball again.

There is tons of reason for optimism, including the potential for the MVP race to be down to 3 players all on the White Sox, maybe 4 if they consider pitchers and Gio is his dominant self. Lynn will provide much less uncertainty at #3 than Cease did last year, and if they make the playoffs they will be a damn good team given their top 3 and bullpen. I’m worried the offense won’t be able to keep consistency, but I have faith Moncada will be feeling better and provide the extra juice that was badly missing at the end of the year.

asinwreck

Jim identified the key insight into Tony La Russa’s career.

he’s defended his own players to the point of outright hypocrisy.

It helps to think of La Russa as the defense counsel for his 25-man roster. Like Miller Huggins before him, La Russa is the rare MLB-manager who has a JD. His reputation for game preparation as well as his hostility to the media all stem from his efforts to give his team the best chance to win like the counsel for a client accused of a serious crime tries for a not guilty verdict or mistrial by any means possible. The first major media attention La Russa got happened in the second half of the 1981 season when he warned he’d deliberately forfeit games if it helped the Sox get into the playoffs due to the strange split-season rules cobbled together after the strike. He is always looking for every edge, appearances be damned.

The result can be enormously ugly. His staffs have reputations as headhunters, which he always frames in the context of protecting his players from those awful headhunters in the other dugout. In addition to storming the Pirates’ booth, La Russa and Leyland attempted to intimidate Jimmy Piersall in 1982 and this Howard Bryant memorial thread to the late Pedro Gomez reveals how La Russa regularly bullied reporters in Oakland. This is, for better or worse, who he is.

Last edited 3 years ago by asinwreck
Kittles on a Rooftop

I would rather have this than some of the more recent managers that Renisdorf hired…

Oddvark

I had been making an extended weekend trip to Spring Training each year since 2017, and last year I was originally scheduled to arrive in AZ literally on the day that everything was just down. The start of Spring Training brings back warm memories for me, though I’m not going to go this year (even if some fans are allowed in the stands, it’s not worth the trip if the backfields aren’t open).

My primary hopes for Spring Training are that everyone stays healthy and that the team appropriately considers all the data available along with their coaches evaluations in deciding the roster battles that do exist (Collins/Lucroy, Cease/Rodon/Lopez/Kopech, Vaughn/Mercedes/Collins/Adolfo, Mendick/Beckham), rather than relying on predetermined decisions by the front office. And I am especially interested to see how Kopech looks after his long lay-off, how Crochet fares over a longer stretch when hitters have a better idea of what to expect, and how Moncada’s legs/lungs work a year on from COVID.

More optimistically, I hope that Eaton looks more like his 2014-2019 self (sans injuries) than his 2020 version, that Collins shows marked improvement behind the plate (with the help of new coaching) and continues to hit like he has done throughout the minors, that Rodon, Lopez, and Kopech all look strong with both high velocities and good command/control, and that Vaughn hits well enough to justify a roster spot but still starts the season at AAA because Mercedes crushes everything he sees and forces his way into the lineup.

(Though, because I care, I almost hope they all suck terribly in Spring Training and throughout the year, so that the chat pros here can feel better about themselves and their dour predictions of near assured failure/”we’re fucked”.)

jhomeslice

I’d rather be happy than right. If they do have a disappointing year, I do think it will be because of the reasons so many posters have cited. I was very optimistic ahead of this winter, and did not think they would address their RF and 5th starter issues by spending 11M on Rodon/Eaton. Both have been hurt literally half the time the past 4 years. I don’t think people have been negative on these threads without cause. They are relying on a couple of the same guys who were awful in both 2019 and 2020, and that fans are tired of seeing fail again and again. They will look very stupid as a front office if that blows up in their face. Their best hope is that they don’t need either Rodon or Lopez much, which is certainly possible. I predict they will do very well if they do not need to rely on either of them much, which basically means Kopech succeeds pretty quickly (just enough to be a 5th starter), and everyone else is healthy. Very possible.

This team has way, way too much talent to be an assured failure, and there are more reasons for optimism than the opposite. Lynn should be enough of an improvement to all but guarantee them a wild card at worst. I do think it is a true statement that they could have been a lot more solid if they had gotten guys who have not had such a terrible injury history to fill holes and for depth, and that criticisms for not getting better players than Rodon and Eaton will prove to be spot on. Rodon would be a great story if he makes any sort of comeback. The guy has been through a ton to go through rehab after rehab, and endless disappointment. I wish him well, I just don’t think the probability of him being healthy or having any success is more than probably 10 percent or so. 4 years of injuries with declining numbers each year is a heck of a trend to break, and is not wise for a team to bet on if they are trying to win a championship. We’ll see. A comeback would be a great achievement for him.

Last edited 3 years ago by jhomeslice
MrStealYoBase

Service time dates to keep in mind (everyone’s favorite!)

April 15th: Earliest day to call up a rookie (Andrew Vaughn) in order to not incur a full year of service.

May 26th: Earliest day to call up Michael Kopech to claw back an extra year of service.

Hopefully this does not become a storyline. And I’ll just add that I have to think that this is going to be something that is addressed in the CBA next winter, so there probably isn’t even any point in thinking about it.

knoxfire30

If the sox are going to operate as a small market team with a ridiculously self imposed spending limit, then Vaughn on April 16th and Kopech on May 27th should be their course of action.

MrStealYoBase

Imo, letting Kopech get 4-5 starts in Triple AAA and then letting him loose for the final 2/3 of the season makes the most sense if they have him on an inning count and want him down the stretch. I just don’t want it to be a purely service time decision.

tommytwonines

Thanks for the date info.

Kopech on an inning count seems like a responsible tact, so let’s get all the bullets in the majors. If he’s throwing 100 like last spring, bring it on!

I think it’s rough for anyone to cry service-time manipulation all the time and then about-face with “you’re rushing him just like Gordon Beckham” when the FO goes oppo.

Not saying you, Steal.

Last edited 3 years ago by tommytwonines
mikeyb

If Vaughn isn’t up for Day 1, the lineup with Collins as DH is going to make me hilariously sad. Going to have 6 guys with realistic silver slugger upside, 1 guy in RF who has had All-Star quality seasons, a guy at 2B who can annoy the hell out of opposing pitchers, and then our worst offensive player at DH. Looking at potentially the best offensive lineup of my lifetime, with a guy at DH who might not be able to hit a fastball. If we’re rolling with Vaughn, I sure as hell hope he’s here day 1.

Last edited 3 years ago by mikeyb
patrick

 If we’re rolling with Vaughn, I sure as hell hope he’s here day 1.”

Unless, of course, he’s also bad…

mikeyb

Yes, agreed. I actually don’t want Vaughn to be on the opening day roster, but that’s only if we’re going to go out and get another bat (we aren’t). So if we’re planning to roll with the players currently in the org, then Vaughn should be the DH from day 1. When we started this offseason, it wasn’t even a thought in my mind that he would be on the opening day roster, as I don’t think he’s shown enough pop yet to be an effective MLB DH.

But since the Sox chose him over any free agents or trades, they must have seen something last year. So he needs to be the opening day DH.

As Cirensica

Collins can’t be a DH on a regular basis if he is the only backup catcher we have. It makes no sense. The White Sox either starts with Vaughn or Mercedes unless of course, Lucroy comes into the mix.

mikeyb

I don’t think Collins can DH on a regular basis, simply because he can’t hit. But him being the backup Catcher isn’t a good reason not to DH him. Starting catchers very rarely get hurt mid-game. And if you have to give up the DH mid-game, so be it. There is no reason, in my opinion, why you shouldn’t DH your backup catcher if he is the best DH option you have.

Oddvark

When Collins played consistently in September 2019, he hit .233/.343/.417 with 2 HR & 9 RBI in 71 plate appearances. Not massive, but not bad for a 24-year-old rookie catcher. Much better than Luis Robert did in his first September when he hit .136/.237/.173 with 1 HR & 7 RBI in 94 PAs. Collins even had a better wRC+ than Robert in AAA, 140 to 136.

Obviously I’m picking and choosing and I’m not seriously arguing that Collins is a better hitter than Robert. On the other hand, definitive statements that Collins can’t hit don’t seem to be justified by his track record. Since he graduated from Rookie ball in 2016, his wRC+ has consistently been significantly above average at every level (min 128 wRC+). And he got a walk and a HR in his first two plate appearance in the bigs. He hasn’t been great overall since then, but he finished strong in 2019 (.323/.405/.568 over the last 2 weeks) and then only got sporadic opportunities in 2020.

Maybe he will be a bust, and a more surefire established hitter would have been better to have on the roster, but it’s not some stretch of the imagination to think Collins could be a solid hitter who provides the team with a needed left-handed bat with plate discipline and 20-HR power.

MrStealYoBase

I totally agree with this assessment. Collins had a monster year in AAA in 2019. Gopher ball notwithstanding, it was well above average. All the argument that he can’t hit are based off a small and sporadic sample size of major league plate appearances.

The knock has always been that he isn’t a great catcher. That’s been true of all his time in the minors and going back to when he was drafted. I don’t really see any evidence that he’s overcome that. But there was never serious doubts that the plate discipline + decent power didn’t amount to a useful hitter.

Now, you don’t want to draft that profile high in the first round but he’s also not a complete bust.

jhomeslice

I would think either Collins or Mercedes has a pretty good shot at getting a lot of the DH duties. I doubt Vaughn has had enough experience to handle it, and both those two guys had good enough AAA numbers that you have to believe one of them will be a decent hitter. Collins has a good eye and takes walks as well, I think he would be a solid upgrade over Encarnacion even if he hasn’t been terribly impressive in his limited MLB time so far. I suspect Mercedes might be the better hitter, we’ll see. I think Vaughn would have to look great and clearly look like the best hitter of the 3 in the spring to have any chance of making the team, but then again you never know what they are thinking.

mikeyb

You’re right, that’s fair. I think, based on what I’ve seen and what I’ve read from evaluators, that Collins will not hit at the mlb level. But it’s for sure too soon to say that definitively. I would certainly prefer we weren’t finding that out during the beginning of our contention window.

shaggy65

Lucroy will be on the Opening Day roster, so its a moot point. Scott Merkin on the Sox’ homepage has already given that away.

I’m fine with DHing Collins/Mercedes for a couple weeks to get their feet wet until Vaughan comes up.

denny

If Vaughn isn’t !B/DH combo with Jose, the next scenario up is that either Lucroy or Mercedes join Grandal and Collins as a DH / 2nd and 3rd catcher. IMO

Kittles on a Rooftop

I predict that Vaughn makes the team out of ST and Kopech is held beyond May 26th regardless as his presence is way more important on the back end of the season than the front.

roke1960

I agree on both counts, unless they add a major league bat thru free agency. Of course, there’s really none left, unless you count Shin Soo-Choo. Kopech will certainly start the season in the minors. He will be on an innings limit, and they will want him ready in October.

Oddvark

I still wouldn’t mind if they signed Puig to a minor league contract to find out how the new-and-improved Puig hits now and gets along with his teammates and coaches.

Oddvark

As we get closer to Opening Day, let’s not forget that:

  • Abreu might be hit hard by age decline and his performance could fall off a cliff.
  • Madrigal’s production might be negatively affected by his recent shoulder surgery and/or he might never adjust to the speed of the major league game on defense or on the basepaths and might never develop even doubles-power, which will make him easier to defend.
  • Anderson could end up on the very bad end of BABIP variance and be a below-average batter (to go along with his not great defense).
  • Moncada might continue to suffer from long-term COVID effects and lead the league in strikeouts (again).
  • Jimenez might run into a wall or trip over himself in the outfield and miss large chunks of the season on the IL.
  • Robert could be the hitter we saw in September 2020.
  • Engel coud regress to his pre-2020 batting levels.
  • Grandal could be overly passive at the plate as he was for much of 2020, and his weaknesses behind the plate (past balls, tagging, arguably game calling) could outweigh his strengths (framing, OK stolen base prevention numbers).
  • All of the pitchers might suck in 2021, too.
roke1960

As we get closer to Opening Day, let’s not forget that:

Abreu could repeat as MVP

Madrigal could hit over .300 again

Anderson could have a 3rd straight year of competing for the batting title

Moncada could be fully recovered from COVID and be an MVP candidate.

Jimenez might hit 50 home runs.

Robert will be a 5-tool stud

Engel and Eaton could form a perfect platoon in RF

Grandal could be an OBP machine and hit 25 home runs.

Giolito could win the Cy Young, Rodon could be healthy for the full season and all the pitchers could be great in 2021.

That was easy.

Oddvark

I knew I could inspire some optimism.

roke1960

My guess is it will be somewhere in between those 2!!

Right Size Wrong Shape

It’s the White Sox, so there’s probably some weird third scenario that doesn’t fit within those parameters.

roke1960

Yeah, it’s Jerry goes for broke and acquires Mike Trout, Jacob DeGrom and Bryce Harper at the trade deadline. But that scenario probably isn’t even possible on the Twilight Zone.

Eloy spontaneously combusts in left field and Madrigal gets bitten by a radioactive spider?

MrStealYoBase

The kind of strangely comforting thing about this scenario is that it wouldn’t matter what they did in the offseason at that point.

NorthSideSouthSider

In light of Hahn saying, unsurprisingly, that any further additions would be NRI, I took a look at what is left out there that could potentially fill a purpose for the Sox. I think Eric Sogard might be a decent fit. He wasn’t good last year but he has the versatility to play all over the infield and hits left handed. Idk the options are bleak.

jhomeslice

Looking at the Sox carrying the max of 13 pitchers, there does not appear to be any chance Cordero would make the team unless there is an injury, or they ditch Rodon or Lopez, which is not likely. Even if you assume Kopech starts in the minors, that leaves 6 starters in Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Cease, and Rodon/Lopez. They would seem to have 7 reliever slots allocated, to Liam, Bummer, Crochet, Marshall, Foster, Heuer, and Fry. Cordero was beyond awful last year, I can’t see him beating anybody out other than Lopez, if Lopez has a horrible spring.

Once Kopech gets called up, if they don’t have an injury, you’d have to think it would mean Lopez would get dropped, I can’t imagine them keeping him over any of those relievers. Of course by the time Kopech gets called up, it is likely Rodon will be on the DL which would open up 1 roster spot.

If all are healthy, it sure looks like neither Cordero nor Lopez will have a place on their roster for much of 2021.

jhomeslice

Sorry to hear. Hopefully he will be the only one, knock on wood. There are also guys like Burdi who might have a chance to beat out Cordero. I just cringed whenever they brought Cordero in last year. Does not sound like Fry will be out too long though, so hopefully they will be in decent shape without needing to keep any really bad pitchers for too long. They certainly don’t appear to have a lot of depth if they do have injuries, unfortunately.

Oddvark

There is no max on pitchers this year. They can go with 14 pitchers and 12 position players if they choose. And I kind of suspect that several teams will go this route, especially as they try to control workloads for pitchers after the shortened 2020 season. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Sox keep Rodon and Lopez (or maybe Kopech) on the roster to start the season along with 8 relievers. That leave the bench pretty thin, but it’s a possibility.

Last edited 3 years ago by Oddvark
jhomeslice

Where did you read that? I had read that the rules from last year would be in effect, which is 13 pitchers until Sept 1 when it then expanded to 14. Someone on another thread on a different site made a point of the 13 pitchers as well. Anyway just curious where you read this… perhaps you are right, I could not find anything that said definitively one way or the other.

Assuming you are correct, I would have a hard time believing they would go with 14 pitchers though. It will be apparent quickly I imagine that one of either Rodon or Lopez does not have enough value for a roster spot, unless they are significantly better than last year. If both of them are decent… I consider that a fantasy scenario in terms of overwhelmingly low probability. Rodon has to prove he is healthy enough to get through spring training first.

Last edited 3 years ago by jhomeslice
Oddvark

https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-mlb-announces-health-and-safety-protocols-for-2021-season

The Active Roster limit will revert to 26 (expanding to 28 in September), but the limit on the number of pitchers on the Active Roster at any given time has been waived for this season.

jhomeslice

Thanks, that’s cool. A restriction doesn’t necessarily make sense in the first place… let that be a part of coaching/management strategy, whether more hitters or pitchers on the roster is a better approach. 14 would seem like a lot though. That would mean only 3 hitters off the bench, that’s hard to imagine them doing. Engel, Leury Garcia, Collins and possibly LuCroy… that’s just not enough depth. Even 13 only leaves room for those 4.

Rodon and Lopez combined for an ERA of near 6 in 2019/20… I would be extremely pleased (and surprised) if either one is in the category of decent. An ERA slightly below 5 is a servicable number 5 starter, and a lot better than what we’ve seen from either of them since 3+ years ago. Just hoping they don’t hang losses every time one of them starts.

Last edited 3 years ago by jhomeslice
Oddvark

Also, I don’t expect them to go with 14 pitchers, it’s just that I wouldn’t be shocked if they did.

And in some ways it makes more sense to include both Rodon and Lopez if neither one looks great, because then you could piggyback them for a single start without requiring either one to face the opposing line up more than twice. If one or the other appear to be capable of regularly providing quality starts, there is less need to bring the other one along as an extra “starter”.

denny

I truly feel that it’s conceivable that some MLB team could go with 12 pitchers and have an platoon player or bench player or 3rd catcher or DH…

IMO, starting pitchers can go longer and the 3-batter rule shortens the number of pen arms.

I’d kind of like to see it..