For one year, White Sox can subsist on weak teams alone

A big part of writing about baseball is noticing patterns, and it's hard not to notice how much the schedule itself foreshadows the happiness of White Sox fans.

The White Sox are 15-11, which is a record to be proud of, provided you ignore that this house was constructed on an AL Central burial ground.

• vs. Royals: 3-0
• vs. Tigers: 6-1
• vs. Brewers: 2-2
• vs. Indians: 2-4
• vs. Twins: 1-2
• vs. Cardinals: 1-2

The winning records are very winning against teams that very much aren't. The losing records are against the teams that are the supposed measuring sticks. The Brewers are the lone team the Sox battled to a draw, and even then it was the demoralizing sort of split, with the White Sox losing the last two.

Long story short, a team projected to be in third place is acting Third Place as Hell, but it seems to be a winning strategy this time around. The postseason odds are all in the White Sox's favor:

• FanGraphs: 92.2 percent
• FiveThirtyEight: 88 percent
• Baseball Prospectus: 84.2 percent

For some context, when the White Sox started the 2016 season by winning 23 of their first 33 games, FanGraphs gave them a 70 percent shot of making the postseason. In the end, all they got was a lesson in how probabilities work.

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With the White Sox driving up to Wrigley to play the Cubs, I've already prepared for the Sox to lose two of three, because I'm going to force the Sox to make me expect better. That'd leave the White Sox 16-13, and they'll cross the season's halfway point with a light week against the Pirates and Royals.

If the White Sox continued this pattern of beating the teams they're supposed to beat and losing to the teams they're supposed to lose to, where does that get them?

Here's one model:

• vs. Royals: 8-2
• vs. Tigers: 8-2
• vs. Pirates: 3-1
• vs. Reds: 2-1
• vs. Brewers: 2-2
• vs. Indians: 3-7
• vs. Twins: 3-7
• vs. Cubs: 2-4
• vs. Cardinals: 1-2

That's a 32-28 record, which is roughly where they were projected to end up before the season started. That seems like it should be plenty for one of the last spots in an American League where the middle class is hollowed out:

All of the teams ahead of the White Sox were teams I didn't think they could top, which is why I didn't have them playing into October in my preseason predictions (the pool was expanded from five to eight after the season started).

Every team that's beneath the White Sox feel, well, beneath the White Sox. That's not to say the Rangers or Blue Jays are worse than the White Sox, because they'll probably never play each other to actually put any postulate to the test. They just don't seem to warrant the concern, because the White Sox are in a better position to take care of their business than teams in deeper divisions (or bubbles, when roping in their National League counterparts). Rick Hahn might have built the best third-place team in the American League for the one season where that guarantees a payoff.

I included the streak column in the standings because the number of hot and cold teams seem like a potential theme of this season. The Rays started the season 5-7. but they made up four games on the Yankees in two weeks. The White Sox already have more five-game winning streaks this year than they did in 2018 and 2019 combined. Between small samples and more extreme team health situations, it wouldn't surprise me if teams run this hot and cold, perhaps more so in September when sellers sell, players sit, and a third of the league resigns itself to crossing days off the calendar. It's the White Sox's job to get to high ground before playing the Indians and Cubs in the final week, and there's a clear path up the hill if they continue issuing thumpings to teams that are cratering.

(Photo by Rob Grabowski/Icon Sportswire)