With the 2020 MLB schedule finally released, the projection systems now will have a better idea of what to expect in the 60-game sprint. For those that participate in fantasy baseball or daily fantasy sports, the projections come in handy, especially in a small sample size season like 2020. Even with that data, it may be helpful to get a good idea of how a 60-game season could look numbers-wise using 2019 performance to gauge what the results could look like.
But which 60 games should we look at? There are arguments for two approaches.
Rust-based: We could look at last year’s first 60 games, which would cover late March until early June. Pitchers are ramping up from spring training, and hitters are playing full games for the first time since the previous September.
Climate-based: Part of what may be "rust" is actually "trying to hit in cold weather," but there will be no snowflakes to be found here. The first 60 games of 2020 will be played in quite different conditions. What if we chopped up 2019 numbers using the 2020 time frame, which is July 23 to September 27?
Fortunately, we have room to do both.
First 60 games/66 days: March 28 to June 3, 2019
WAR Leaders (FanGraphs):
- NL Position Player: Cody Bellinger, 4.2 WAR
- NL Pitcher: Max Scherzer, 2.9 WAR
- AL Position Player: Mike Trout, 3.4 WAR
- AL Pitcher: Matthew Boyd, 2.7 WAR
Breakdown: No surprise at three of the four leaders. Both Bellinger and Trout went on to win their respective league’s MVP awards. Scherzer, who had a 3-5 record in the first 60 games, finished third in the NL Cy Young voting.
The surprise is Boyd as he barely edged out Lucas Giolito (2.6 WAR) in the first 60-games. Boyd was sharp out of the gate in 2019 with a 5-4 record and a 3.01 ERA/2.83 FIP. Giolito had an 8-1 record and better ERA/FIP totals at 2.54/2.69. Neither finished in the Top-5 voting at the end of 2019, but Giolito did receive enough votes to place sixth. Boyd had a 5.51 ERA in the second half of 2019, fading from the race.
Other first 60-game hitting leaders:
- Home Run King: Christian Yelich, 22
- RBI Leader: Cody Bellinger and Josh Bell, 52 (Note: Jose Abreu led the AL with 50 RBI)
- Batting Champ: Bellinger, .379 avg
- Most Hits: Bellinger and Nolan Arenado, 78 hits
- Most Doubles: Bell, 20 doubles
- Most Triples: Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi, 7 triples
- Most Walks: Mike Trout, 53 walks
- Most Strikeouts: Bryce Harper, 77 strikeouts
- Most Stolen Bases: Mondesi, 21
Other first 60-game pitching leaders:
- ERA Champ: Hyun-Jin Ryu, 1.48 ERA
- Lowest Bullpen ERA: Ryan Pressly, 0.34 ERA
- Strikeout King: Gerrit Cole, 112
- Most Saves: Kirby Yates, 22
- Most Appearances: Bryan Shaw and Alex Claudio, 30 appearances
PERTINENT: Let's poke at the White Sox's 2020 schedule
Now let’s look at the last 60 games/66 days of the 2019 season. When looking through this prism, we see new faces leading the majors.
Same time frame as 2020: July 23 to September 27, 2019
WAR Leaders (FanGraphs)
- NL Position Player: Anthony Rendon, 3.2 WAR
- AL Position Player: Marcus Semien and Alex Bregman, 4.0 WAR
- NL Pitcher: Jacob deGrom, 3.4 WAR
- AL Pitcher: Justin Verlander, 3.8 WAR
Further Review: Five qualifying starting pitchers had sub-2.00 ERAs. deGrom and Verlander did take home the Cy Youngs in 2019. Still, the other three pitchers joining them were Gerrit Cole, Mike Clevinger, and Jack Flaherty. Amazingly, Flaherty had a 1.00 ERA with a 3.3 WAR. Those numbers would have seriously challenged deGrom for the Cy.
Rendon finished the regular season hot in 2019, and that level of performance carried into the postseason. Over in the American League, it would have been a great debate who was more valuable between Bregman and the former White Sox Semien.
Other hitting leaders using same 2020 timeframe:
- Home Run King: Eugenio Suarez, 23 home runs
- RBI Leader: Anthony Rendon, 57 RBIs
- Most Hits: Trea Turner, 83 hits
- Most Doubles: Nicholas Castellanos, 24 doubles
- Most Triples: Multiple players, 4 triples
- Most Walks: Yasmani Grandal, 53 walks
- Most Stolen Bases: Jonathan Villar, 22 steals
Not listed above is Nelson Cruz. Using the same time frame as 2020, Cruz would have won the American League Triple Crown, leading the league in home runs (20), RBIs (56), and batting average (.367).
If there is a 2020 season (and with the way COVID-19 testing is going, that is a big if), we could see new faces leading the majors in statistical categories. Will anyone hit .400? Doubtful, but there might be a hitter who gets to the .360’s. There hasn’t been any news about the ball itself changing, so if you’re the betting type, you might want to picture the home run leader clearing 20 in 2020.
For the White Sox, Tim Anderson led the AL in base hits with 81 while hitting .363, and Abreu once again had 50 RBIs to finish in the AL top five. Eloy Jiménez hit the most home runs with 13. Yoan Moncada only played eight games in August due to injury, which impacted his final numbers but not the slash line (.331/.370/.571).
If Giolito, Anderson, Abreu, Jimenez, and Moncada, along with the offseason additions (Grandal, Edwin Encarnación, Dallas Keuchel), produce at a high-rate in the small sample size season of 2020, White Sox fans should see their names towards the top of leaderboards, which is a nice change of pace.
As for win-loss records, the Chicago White Sox were 29-31 in their first 60 games of 2019. They went 25-35 from July 23 to Sept. 27, 2019. Lineup and rotation depth issues shouldn't be as much of a factor this time around, so maybe the White Sox can finally start seeing their name toward the top of the standings.
