It's hard to tell if Major League Baseball's insistence on some kind of season is breaking down the resistance to raising hopes, or whether this is just what happens when baseball reporters are entering their second month of no actual baseball to report.
On the heels of Jeff Passan's extensive "20 questions" column at ESPN on Monday, Ken Rosenthal posted his own lengthy examination of what MLB is considering in its aims of getting any kind of season off the ground. Both seem to be taking their cues from the lifting of stay-at-home restrictions in some states, although as somebody who lives in one of those states that's phasing out its orders starting May 1, I'd say that science isn't exactly taking the lead here.
Passan and Rosenthal relay the same sentiment from their league sources ...
- Passan: "Nearly everyone along the decision-making continuum -- league officials, players, union leaders, owners, doctors, politicians, TV power brokers, team executives -- has grown increasingly optimistic that there will be baseball this year.
- Rosenthal: "Those involved at the sport’s highest levels are increasingly confident games will be played in 2020."
... while also mentioning the major hurdle -- the lack of testing:
- Passan: "Will it be widespread enough that the league could reasonably test players, managers, coaches, umpires and the many others involved with making games work? It was supposed to be in April. The United States' per-capita testing rates pale compared to the world. Baseball officials were told it would be feasible in May. It isn't yet."
- Rosenthal: "Most pressing — how can baseball even think seriously about starting the season when the shortage of tests for COVID-19 remains a nationwide concern?"
Both mention the reason they're writing these articles -- the massive financial incentive driving the league and players to try willing a season into existence -- but Rosenthal pays a little more heed to the national picture with his framing. Then again, maybe Passan's super-cynical treatment of the situation in the minors colors my perspective:
All of this, by the way, is taking place against the backdrop of Minor League Baseball's disastrous power play in which it planned to fight MLB's attempts to cut upward of 40 teams from the minor leagues. With the backing of big-name politicians and social-media circles, the strategy actually looked relatively canny. Then the coronavirus hit.
"Power play" is a curious term to describe a situation where the disadvantaged party is fighting to avoid losing a quarter of its members, which makes me wonder if Passan thinks "The Empire Strikes Back" is the Star Wars movie with the happiest ending.
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Neither Passan nor Rosenthal have any insight into whether the "hub" plans -- ranging from all-Arizona to a three-state split thus far -- have any traction, or whether another scenario has emerged as more likely.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot sounds open to the city's ballparks hosting MLB games, albeit fanless ones. Such a scenario is contingent on Chicagoland's COVID-19 numbers trending in the right direction, and with enough of a track record to get comfortable.
“We’re obviously a ways away from that because we haven’t seen the level of cases decline on a consistent basis. We’re still seeing them rise,” the mayor said.
“But can I envision a world where baseball might return to Chicago this summer? Yes. Is it likely to be without fans? Probably.”
Yankees team president Randy Levine called a fanless season "not practical," but I think the league has to operate with that assumption in mind, and adjust for better outcomes instead of relying on them. Empty ballparks across the country aren't ideal for anybody, but the Arizona Plan doesn't strike me as healthy, either. There's the creepy "human zoo" vibe above all else, but I also wonder if the novelty of live action will wear off when teams are divorced from their cities and players are performing without that context.
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Two business-adjacent updates:
*FanGraphs posted an update on the health of its future. There's progress, but there's also a long way to go, because even if baseball returns relatively soon, ad rates will take longer to rebound.
*Regarding Bookshop.org, I've been on the lookout to make sure it's not overpromising support to independent bookstores, or any other catches. Eve Ewing looked into it and posted her findings in a Twitter thread, and found that while bookstores receive a smaller cut through Bookshop sales, it's also taking care of order fulfillment, so some shops might prefer the trade-off. Her conclusions:
To those who ordered a book through my Bookshop page, first of all, thanks for your support. Secondly, let me know whether you're satisfied with the experience when you receive the book. It's not worth getting a portion of the sale if I'm asking people to pay for a bad time.
And regarding the Sox Machine Book Club, I'm tentatively planning to start the first installment early next week, Monday or Tuesday, with a few days before the second post to allow those waiting for a copy to catch up.
(Photo by Arturo Pardavila III)
