Baseball America list shows White Sox prospects are now harder to rank
As prospect list season gets underway, the White Sox’s forest isn’t as impressive as it used to be, so we’ll be spending more time talking about the trees.
The White Sox have four players with substantial histories and a a lot of enthusiasm no matter how you weigh their weaker sides. After that, the exercise takes a speculative turn even after adjusting for the idea that the whole thing is about speculation. One has to pit recent draft picks — high schoolers, no less! — against guys who suffered injuries or other setbacks in a conversation about whether no track record is better than a blemished one.
Baseball America took the first crack at it by posting its top 10 list on Monday, and it shows what a difference a year can make. Last year’s lists generally had all the same players seven spots deep, followed by an interchangeable second tier of up-and-comers for the next seven.
This year’s group devolves into the aforementioned debate by pick No. 5. By the ninth prospect, it’s more about who can get up off the mat.
| Rank | 2018-19 | 2019-20 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eloy Jiménez | Luis Robert |
| 2 | Michael Kopech | Andrew Vaughn |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | Michael Kopech |
| 4 | Nick Madrigal | Nick Madrigal |
| 5 | Luis Robert | Matthew Thompson |
| 6 | Micker Adolfo | Jonathan Stiever |
| 7 | Dane Dunning | Andrew Dalquist |
| 8 | Blake Rutherford | Steele Walker |
| 9 | Luis Gonzalez | Dane Dunning |
| 10 | Steele Walker | Blake Rutherford |
Looking at this list, I can see at least three subplots that could unfold with a fair amount of variance as subsequent rankings are released.
No. 1: Differentiating Thompson from Dalquist. Up until now, the White Sox’s second- and third-round picks have been joined at the hip, both inside and outside the organization. Thompson was drafted a round earlier, but his bonus was only $100,000 more than the one Dalquist received. You can count each pitcher’s pro innings total on one hand. Thompson’s stuff was seen as more electrifying at its peak, but he had difficulty summoning it with consistency his senior season, while Dalquist reached a new level with his spring performance.
Baseball America put the prep pitchers next to each other on their midseason list, but their full evaluation inserts a cushion between them for the first time. Granted, it’s only one player, but it’s something. Thompson gets the edge for having a higher upper range of power, saying he works 93-96 with a strong curveball when he’s on his game. Dalquist’s arsenal starts at 90-94, but there’s less variation start to start.
No. 2: Putting stock in Stiever. With three of the top four pitching prospects sidelined by injuries, Stiever seized the opportunity and put himself on the map with 154 strikeouts to 27 walks over 145 innings, and a sterling 2.15 ERA at Winston-Salem over the second half of the season. While he was a collegiate pitcher facing A-ball opponents, he wasn’t old for the level. He just wasn’t young for the level either, so there’s some mystery about whether upper-level hitters will find his stuff that daunting.
Nobody seems to doubt his fastball, either or the life or the location. BA says he just needs to establish a true plus breaking ball between his curveball and slider (and it seems like his curveball took the lead last year).
No. 3: Walker, same thing. Now Walker is an example of a guy who was a little too old for the level. He and Stiever were both in their age-22 seasons, but Walker turned 23 in July, whereas Stiever won’t reach that age until next May.
The age poses problems, especially when the performance against Carolina League is pitching isn’t all that loud. Compare these Winston-Salem Dash outfielders from the past two seasons:
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | .293 | .345 | .436 | 7.0 | 18.5 |
| Player B | .269 | .346 | .426 | 9.5 | 14.2 |
You’d probably be inclined to give Player B the edge in future viability due to the slight-but-detectable edges in ISO, walk rate and strikeout rates. But what if I add their ages?
| Age | BA | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 21 | .293 | .345 | .436 | 7.0 | 18.5 |
| Player B | 22 | .269 | .346 | .426 | 9.5 | 14.2 |
Now that becomes a lot tougher to tell whether Walker’s performance (Player B) is meaningfully different from Blake Rutherford’s 2018 line (Player A). Walker feels newer than Rutherford, but he’s actually 11 months older, and thus his timetable isn’t as forgiving should Birmingham suffocate his fringe power in a similar fashion.
If I had to guess, I’d say putting the ball over the fence comes more naturally to Walker, even if he only had a three-homer edge in Winston-Salem (10 to seven). The Southern League is going to put that ability to the test, and perhaps he and Rutherford will occupy the same level at the same age to allow the scientific method to play out.
Author
For as bad as last year was for Sox prospects, having a top 10 list with Blake Rutherford tenth isn’t as bad as I thought it’d be. The flip side, of course, is the Sox only graduated two players from last year’s top ten list…
Yeah, Kopech qualifies on a technicality. Robert already should’ve been promoted. Maybe Madrigal, too.
A farm headlined by their top 3 picks in 2019 and Stiever would be quite the come down from a couple years ago without having sent anyone out in trade. It’s grim as is.
Very reminiscent of the pre-rebuild farm system ranking pattern.
Including the sparse international representation.
Other than Baltimore… does anyone have as poor of a track record in signing and developing talent internationally over the last two decades?
I still think the Sox incompetence in signing and developing international talent is not nearly scrutinized by fans and the media. The Dave Wilder mess was 9 years ago now… and things have barely gotten any better. It’s basically turning Tatis into Shields and Yolmer off the top of my head. That’s brutal.
Robert counts as an international signing and that signing put them under a penalty. I’d say Adolfo has the highest ceiling of any of our outfield prospects but he has to stay healthy.
Adolfo was their first major international signing after the Wilder scandal, and they’re so young when acquired that there’s a pretty long timeline for their development. Until Adolfo hits or misses entirely, I’m reserving overall judgement on the state of their international drafting, though trading away bonus pool money and using a huge bonus to sign a 22-year old was an odd way to come out of the penalty box.
Other teams hit on players who both sign at or below $300k and arrive within 4 years of signing. Even leaving aside guys like Acuna and Robles, there isn’t really an excuse for their struggles to get more prospects who can even fit into the 40-45 tier of fringey players to round out their top 10-20.
That’s very much the exception and not the rule, though. I’m not trying to argue it’s been any good, and I do think their process is still fundamentally bad, but I’m giving it another year or two before I lump it in with their amateur player draft as a serious problem.
The Sox have gone about it in a weird way but they have some success.
Jose Abreu counts, technically. As does Luis Robert. Guys like Alexei Ramirez and Tadahito Iguchi technically count too.
As does -sigh- Fernando Tatis, Jr.
That’s fair, but I’m more speaking about players signed around the age of 16.
Otter, you’re right that the Sox haven’t been in on international signings of 16 year olds; but, that seems to be a somewhat political issue for them. I believe they supported a draft system for such players. JR does run the team under some self-imposed restrictions.
Signing international professionals is different than signing amateurs. You also just named 4 guys while virtually exhausting all of their above average international talent from the last 20 years.
Cuba seems to be without much more impact talent to offer for the immediate future. Tadahito was 15 years ago. So it’s not like there’s reason to think that the limited success they had in these particular niches is sustainable or replicable.
Kenny Williams is only interested in international players if they are also good at football, basketball, or water polo.
If they aren’t inclined to move Vaughn, it’s gonna be tough to deal from this.
My hope is they eat money. Not to mention David Price again but while $96 over 3 years for a 2/3 win pitcher isn’t ideal, they can afford it and it won’t cost them much in prospects.
If it’s $100mil we’re spending, why not just sign Bumgarner who I imagine will be a roughly 2/3 WAR per year pitcher for that money over a longer duration?
Well theoretically you’re getting money and/or players back with Price to offset that salary.
depends on how they settle . . . Otter mentions David Price; I’d be interested in a RF-DH combo of something like Castellanos and Choo, who also wouldn’t cost much in prospects.
If they end up adding Grandal, Price, Ozuna, and so-so inning eater, I think this will have been an excellent offseason.
I didn’t do an offseason plan because I couldn’t muster the GAF pre-Grandal signing, but I’d flip Lopez for a better arm with less control (Syndergaard is the obvious name here but doesn’t look like he’ll be moved, so may Jon Gray?).
Excellent? I’d consider that something of a minimal acceptable outcome.
This is really disappointing given the relatively high draft positions they’ve had for a while.
Missing so badly on the 2015 through 2017 drafts – Fulmer, Collins, Burdi and Burger- really hurts. Hopeful that Madrigal and Vaughn will ne good, but the poor drafting this past, miserable decade really hurts. That, along with their underwhelming player development, has possibly squandered such a unique opportunity.
Not to defend this FO, because lord knows I’m done with them, but the only true miss here is Collins imo. But Fulmer you’ll scream, and you’re not wrong as far as results… but Fulmer wasn’t an overdraft or mis-evaluation. Maybe the Sox rushed him and broken him by yanking him around every which way… we’ll never know. But I don’t think Fulmer was a bad pick at the time. Burdi and Burger got hurt (though one could argue that Burger was a bad pick at the time though it’s not like Jeren Kendall is tearing it up).
But Collins, at the time, was a good, maybe very good bat… but no one though he could catch. Thus probably a second round guy because of his defensive limitation and solid but limited bat. And that’s proven to be true for the most part. So now you’re stuck with a 1B/DH type with maybe an average bat (since I don’t think anyone would call it good now).
Wasn’t there a story that came out about that year when Fulmer tried to smooth out his mechanics where he said he basically did it on his own and that the Sox had nothing to do with it? That was what really rubbed me the wrong way. We all assumed they had a plan for him and then it didn’t sound like they really did.
Almsot all news that has come out of Whitesox player development the past few years has been… Frightening. It was up to Jose Abreu to get Eloy an ipad so he could scout opposing pitchers on his own??? Winston salem didnt have any sort of sabremetrics tracking until last year??? There is so, so much bad stuff there.
Fulmer’s an odd case and I’m not sure what his struggles say about the Sox approach to development. Fulmer spent time in Seattle with Driveline but I don’t know that wasn’t with the organizations encouragement. It’s his delivery that leads many to view him as a reliever; the Sox wanted to change that from the start. Fulmer resisted but still wanted to be a starter. I was big on Carson and I’m not sure who or what’s to blame for his failure to even come close to his potential.
Your statement is ridiculous and that is being kind. The only one that I see as a miss is Fulmer. Collins has 102 PA’s at the MLB level. Burger and Burdi are recovering from injuries.
You’re missing context. Many analysts thought Fulmer was a reliever from the start. Collins and Burger had narrow pathways to productivity because of their limited tools, even before contact issues and injury problems (respectively) popped up in the pros. As a reliever, Burdi was a low upside pick even in the best case scenario.
Any of things can be overcome in isolation, but when these are the results it’s totally fair to question the drafting process.
Welp, so much for my attempt to post an image.
Would’ve been green in the SSS days
You’re an editor, dude.
I totally agree with Greg Nix’s statement. These evaluations are very concerning especially watching picks slightly lower already making names for themselves in MLB.
There’s some questions about some of the recent picks but they’ve all been light years ahead of Jarred Mitchell, Courtney Hawkins, Joe Borchard type of head shaking picks that came in preceding years. I think the Sox have drafted well of late. There’s clearly been a shift away from drafting the “best athlete available” and hoping to make him a ball player.
The three guys you mentioned were also all taken with the 12th overall pick or later. The guys being discussed here, besides Burdi, were all top 11 picks.
NDSox12, you’re correct but I’m not sure of your point. The Sox have had higher draft picks of late (that’s part of a rebuild strategy) so naturally they’ve had better players available; but there does seem to have also been a change in their approach to drafting players.
My point is that we should have higher expectations for higher draft picks, so I’d say your comment about the Sox having drafted well of late is inconclusive, at best. That said, I’m not ready to give up on any of these guys, besides Fulmer.
Yep, expectations are rightly higher with top 10 picks. I’d argue that Fulmer was the right pick given his college career and the success the Sox had with a prospect with similar “mechanics” issues (Sale). But, the jury is still out with Burger, Madrigal, Vaughn but, except for Burger’s injuries, I’m very optimistic.
Jake Burger hasn’t played professional baseball in about two years. I’m pretty much giving up on him.
Maybe. But fullmer is a bust, Rodon hasn’t been good, and now the hostetler picks have to start producing or it makes little difference. Going from prospects that stall out in AA to picks that are Mlb bench players at best is still a failure.
@zerobs, Rodon, if you take away the shoulder issues in ’17 and ’18, has been above average imo.
You need to seriously consider his injuries when evaluating his production.
He’s well past the point of “Well, he was injured last year, but he’ll probably get right back to it once he returns.” He’s now at the “Well, who knows if he’ll be effective let alone healthy” stage.
The Rodon of 2019, even before his injury, did not seem to have the same overpowering stuff we’d come to expect from him. I really don’t know that there’s much to dream on with him any longer.
His velocity was down but the slider was very good (and his adjustment to use it more showed promise).
Funny, I didn’t think the slider looked as sharp as it did in years past.
FG pitch values had him with the second best per pitch value on the slider for his career.
If you’re question the drafting, you have to be questioning the scouting and everything else about the front office. It’s been simply awful since Williams has been VP. The team needs outside blood to come in and take control but we know this won’t happen until Jerry is gone. Loyalty trumps competence, with or without a tight grip on the purse strings
Agreed – all picks don’t work out and injuries happen, but the reality is they will have very little – if anything – to show for three years of pretty high picks and that hurts.
Talking about Walker’s age? Oh boy… lil’jimmy might have a word or two here.
I have spoken about that here, not saying he is a bust, but he better, huh, hurry up and develop projectable major league abilities.
From what I recall, you said he was a non-prospect because he didn’t make it to AA by his 23rd birthday.
Well…he is technically still in A ball facing teenagers. Maybe he is a prospect of worth, but he needs to hurry up, we don’t wanna waste some of his peak years facing AA and AAA pitchers.
He can’t get stalled out at AA if that’s what you’re saying, but your comment is kind of overstating how old he was for the levels. The average guy at A+ is like 22 and change. Sure there are some teenagers, but you’re comment seems like a bit of hyperbole. It’s not like he was in rookie ball.
You cannot average like that. You are including a lot of crappy players. The average of real interesting prospects in A+ is 22? I don’t think so.
I haven’t looked at numbers, but I am gonna say that the prospects of impact, those who reach the majors and do well, by age 22, are not in A+. By age 22, they are probably knocking on the big leagues level doors.
If a guy goes to college, he is likely to be 20/21 by time he is drafted. 22 in A+ is not unreasonable for a college drafted prospect not drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round.
@phillyd I agree with you, but I also think that drafting college guys is generally not a great strategy. The floor might be higher, but the ceiling is definitely lower in general.
Really? Guys like Cole and Strasburg, Rodon, Bryant had low ceilings?
Where was 22 years old Bryant? Facing A+ hitters? Nope.
Let’s stop comparing Walker with super stars. That’s not my point.
You just name a few guys. Of course, college baseball has great talent.
I’m not really sure what you’re arguing at this point. As you say, Walker isn’t in the same class as those players. He doesn’t have the same talent level and doesn’t project for that kind of role in the majors. He also shouldn’t be held to the same standards in terms of speed of progression.
What he’s done so far in the minors is fine. He’s performed well at age appropriate levels. As I mentioned in another thread, he’s not old for his levels, but he is older than some above him (Rutherford) or the same age as guys a level above him (Basabe). There’s nothing wrong with that if he keeps performing, but he can’t really afford to get stalled out at AA like Rutherford did last year. Again, this is probably something to keep in mind while evaluating him, but it’s nothing to get your pampers in a twist about at the moment.
My point was simple: I find it concerning that a top 10 prospect is still facing A+ pitchers at 22 years of age.
I am not saying Walker is a bust
I am not saying that playing in A+ at 22 yo is a bad thing
I am not saying that you should be a teenager to play in A+
All I am saying is, and in some degree Jim mentioned it in his article above, that Walker is reaching an age where good prospects graduate from low As baseball.
If you think is fine, well, that’s OK too, but I would ask you, at what age do you start worrying about a prospect not reaching the majors? Considering that baseball players are been called up at tender ages of 20, 21, 22, and they start raking. Where would you draw a line?
Players start to decline at 30 (probably even before that), the more time a player plays in his 20s at the Major league level, the better.
Hes age appropriate for the levels hes been at and hes performed well at those levels. I’m not sure what the complication is here. I’ll start being concerned when he stalls out at a level as I said above.
I was arguing against your exact wording.
Ok now this is silly. The answer of course is to diversify so as to reduce your risk. MLB is littered with quality players who went to college.
Sure you can, it’s the average age of players at the level according to BR. How else would you compare it? Are you going to parse through each roster and determine which players of prospecty enough to count? It’s not like he was at AAA where you’ve got a bunch of 29/30 year olds hanging out as depth.
What pillyd said below. You’re not wrong to take his numbers with a grain of salt, but there’s nothing wrong with his age for the level. It shouldn’t be some kind of red flag in this case, just something to keep in mind while evaluating him.
Just for a point of reference, of the top 15 fWar for rookie hitters this year, 9 of the 15 were 24 or older this year.
22 isn’t old for A+ ball.
@South Side Hit Men.wade17
Since he will start at 23 in AA, let’s suppose he will develop greatly, and gets promoted to AAA, and next year he might knock on the Major league doors. At 24 years of age. That’s totally fine and it goes in line to my initial thought that “he better hurry up”
No, it isn’t for meh players that might have a chance to play in the Majors and be Jacob Mays… Good prospects aren’t facing A+ pitchers at 22 years of age. Madrigal is almost 23, and he is a good prospect, knocking at the Majors. That ain’t happening with Walker.
Madrigal started his age 22 season facing A+ pitching.
And he “hurried up” to climb the ladder which IS my point. Steele Walker needs to hurry up like Madrigal.
Walker is not the same level prospect as Madrigal.
Agree…but I was replying to Jason who started to talk of college players like Bryant, Strasburg, etc…
I don’t really understand BA’s ranking of Vaughn over Madrigal. If someone can elaborate (or speculate) as to why that would be great ..
I couldn’t speak for BA, of course, but Madrigal’s lack of power keeps his ceiling pretty low. He’s really needs to hit—and by hit I mean slap a lot of singles—to be a viable offensive player. Vaughn, on the other hand, looks like a good bet to hit 30 HR a year.
Thanks!
Along the same lines, I don’t see ranking Vaughn over Kopech. In my estimation they have similar floors (Kopech–wild, but good reliever. Vaughn–Brett Wallace type fringe major leaguer) and Kopech has a higher ceiling.
Kopech’s an injury risk, mostly because all pitchers are. So the likelihood that he reaches his (perhaps higher) ceiling is offset by the possibility he can’t ever stay healthy.
Of course he is, but Brett Wallace, as an example, would have more WAR than he does if he had never made it to the majors.
Would you prefer having Placido Polanco or Freddie Freeman? Those are their (approximate) respective ceilings.
Yes
Yep. Plus, the case for Madrigal would largely rest on his high floor, but Vaughn’s got a fairly high floor himself as far as prospects go.
I’d be fine if Vaughn makes it to the Majors in another uniform.
Trading Vaughn is not my first choice because I think he’s the best option we have for a long term 1B. More importantly though, I think getting any kind of major league utility out of a draft pick is a good thing so if we can turn the relative uncertainty of Vaughn into a certain piece on the big league club, do it.
The Sox best option at first long term is probably Eloy.
Vaughn doesn’t have the toolsy profile that you’d normally see with someone considered “low floor”, but I’d consider Madrigal’s floor to be substantially higher than his. Madrigal’s defense, speed and contact ability should make him at least a quality backup in all but the worst case scenarios.
Vaughn has to hit a TON just to be an everyday player. The fact that he’s righthanded does him no favors either because he doesn’t even have the option to settle in as a platoon guy. If he doesn’t hit, he has no role.
Madrigal’s floor is probably higher than Vaughn’s, but not”substantially” so. Nobody is a sure thing, but pretty much every evaluator seems to agree that he’s going to be a productive big league hitter.
For what it’s worth, FanGraphs only lists four players as “Low Risk” (I.e. smallest gap between their floor and ceiling) in their Top 100: Bleday, India, Madrigal, and Vaughn.
I’m actually surprised they listed Vaughn as low risk given his limitations. IIRC they didn’t even put that label on Eloy because of similar factors to what I mentioned above. It does help that most seem to see him as plus power and hit (as opposed to just one or the other). Gives him a better chance to hit long-term.
I’m not surprised Eloy didn’t have a low risk label, though. First, my impression is that he was seen as a more raw hitter. This is corroborated by in 2019 season, too, I would think. Second, I suspect Eloy had the higher ceiling. So even if they had the same floor (which I assume Vaughn’s floor now is still a little higher than Eloy’s last year), Eloy’s higher ceiling could account for the disparity.
I’m not sure I follow you here. I don’t think I heard anyone describe Eloy as “raw” during his prospect days. Offensively he was seen as extremely advanced. Also not tracking on the floor vs. ceiling comment. Not that it really matters, this is all semantics.
Every corner player has to hit a ton to be an every day player. You might be able to get away with one sub-par corner bat in your lineup if the other 4 corner spots (I include DH in that) are producing. Over the last 10 seasons, the Sox have had that only in 2012.
That’s not really accurate. Any corner other than 1B has other avenues to being a good player. Defense matters substantially more at those positions.
Vaughn has skills not tools which is what makes him high floor. He’s closer to already maxing out his talent. Madrigal likewise.
As opposed to toolsy players who have so much talent that they have a high floor even if they only develop a fraction of it.
How you value them relative to each other is largely about aesthetics and personal preference. The current run environment is volatile enough that either 1 might end up with the more valuable skillset even if their talent and development were otherwise equal.
Speaking to a few scouts and prospect writers today they all agree that once Robert/Madrigal/Kopech graduate this season the White Sox will have a bottom-five farm system, again.
Here’s a thought. Leave them in the Minors! I’d hate to lose that “top 5” title
That makes trading to supplement that core more difficult.. yet another reason to spend on the big FA’s to fill out the roster.
Pretty sad to come out of a Rebuild with atrocious Minor league depth.
So nothing’s changed since the beginning of the rebuild. A few solid pieces and nothing beyond that.
Fantastic.
Well, no. Hahn is still there. KW is still there. And the vast majority of decision makers under them are still there.
Basically, we did the rebuilding project for … for what?
We are coming off a 72-win season and heavily dependent on the free-agent market.
Rick Hahn is like a long lost Clippers GM or something… unbelievable how badly he botched his own rebuild. But should we be surprised considering how badly he did the first time?
I will say this: if Robert is a star, Kopech becomes a star, and Vaughn/Madrigal are solid players, this probably works out of the Sox and Hahn. But a TON is riding on Robert and Kopech right now.
I still hope that Hahn’s rebuild will bring us a couple or so post season appearances, but it can go ugly rather quickly after that. Think of Royals bad as they are now.
Eloy and Timmy are both on great contracts. We can trade both to fuel the next wave of prospects.
Get ‘er done, Rick!
No doubt the Sox farm system has been top heavy but “bottom five” seems harshly pessimistic. Vaughn’s a top 25 prospect and healthy seasons from Dunning, Adolfo and Burger might well get them at or near top 100 status. As yet, who knows how good Thompson and Dalquist will prove to be or if Benyamin Balley is for real.
After Vaughn our best remaining prospects will be Dunning, Stiever, and Walker. That’s not exactly something to be super high on, and I say this as somebody that really likes what Dunning brings to the table.
It’s inevitable that the promotion of a wave of prospects will leave a team’s farm system weakened. I think Dunning’s ranking jumps next season. My point is that Burger, Adolfo and the two young pitchers are all huge question marks.
My point is that they have failed to reinforce their system through the draft, and are far too reliant on prospects from trades and tanking reward picks. Their farm is basically producing the same way that got them into this mess in the first place.
It’s absolutely not overly pessimistic.
Going off of Fangraphs midseason rating, the Sox have 3 55 FV prospects (the aforementioned Madrigal, Kopech and Robert), 1 50 FV (Vaughn) and no other prospects better than 45 FV.
The current state of the farm is middling: 12th best if weighted by the expected surplus value or tied for 15th best if you want to go with number of prospects rated at 45+ or better.
Remove those top 3 prospects and the Sox farm system would be 30th in expected surplus value or tied for 28th in number of 45+ or better prospects.
Shit, it’s time to trade Moncada and Gio for some prospects!
I’m going to love those three dudes.
ESPN reports 2 mystery teams in on Gerrit Cole Josh…White Sox?
So we are now going hard after Nomar Mazara, per various tweeters (Heyman, Merkin.)
I freely admit to not knowing anything about Mazara except his B-ref page, which screams “just a guy.” Am I wrong?
Good grief …just an awful idea
Great athlete with contact issues and his selectivity has regressed over his 4-year career. Hits lefty and plays right field, so fits the profile on the shopping list. I’d rather sign Puig.
In four seasons, Mazara has never been above 0.8 WAR. Why would you trade for someone like him, when you can sign someone much better?
They are just saving money to sign Cole.
At 24, he all but screams “untapped” potential. I have heard of the Sox having interest in him during past off-seasons. But what does this mean about the status of talks for Joc Pederson?
Untapped potential = bad player who is a former top prospect?
It would have been a great move last off-season. He’s younger than Zack Collins and has some upside, but not a “win-now” move. If he takes the next step, it could look brillant. But I’d much rather have Marte or Castellanos or Ozuna.
According to Jim Bowden twitter.
But am struggling with what ‘hard work’ would be required.
JFC, if this is the plan, they should’ve just kept Avi.
Avi was the exact name I thought of when I looked at his FG page to refresh my memory. Hes like Avi without the one great season.
Nomar bats left-handed and has averaged 20 HRs over his 4 seasons, but there is an over-all similarity with Avi.
Yeah left handed Avi is my comp for him. So, no, I don’t want him. And just like Avi when he was younger, people defend him all the time by saying “he’s only 24”. They’d say he’s only23,24, 25…pretty soon he’s 28 still figuring it out.
Mazara has shown more consistent power than Avi. He wouldn’t be my preferred choice; but, Tampa Bay did make the play-offs with Avi in right.
Avi is a lifetime .428 slugging pct, .751 OPS guy.
Nomar is .435, .754.
If this is what we’re considering an improvement, we have much bigger issues we need to address as a fanbase.
Marcell Ozuna has a lifetime .455 slugging pct. and a .784 career OPS and he’d be considered a top tier outfield acquisition.
Steamer projects mazara to be worth slightly more than 1 win (a threshold he has never actually topped by the way). It projects ozuna to be worth nearly three wins.
Career OPS+:
Mazara – 93
Ozuna – 112
These two are not comparable offensively in the least.
Unless you want to exist in the same payroll stratosphere as the rays (i.e. near the bottom of the league), I’m not sure why you’d use them as an example. The sox have also shown none of the scouting of development capabilities of the rays.
The point of the comparison was clear. RF production at the level likely to be provided by Avi or Maraza was sufficient to reach the playoffs and exceed the production that the Sox enjoyed last season.
So sign avi = playoffs?
It was a stupid fucking point. Avi didn’t cause the Rays to make the playoffs.
This would have made sense earlier in the rebuild, but I dont see the purpose now. They shouldnt be taking fliers like this at this point. They need more certainty.
Yes, confusing. If the team is trying to win now, get someone who can make that happen. If the team is looking out a ways, then get someone with more control and upside.
I see a lot of comments here and on Twitter saying Mazara is young and he can maybe “figure it out”…but he only has two seasons of control left. So the best case scenario is he turns it on just in time to hit free agency at 26 years old and leave?
Never mind that he’s projected to make $5.7 million this season and that will only go up from there even if he never gets better. We literally non-tendered a more productive player because he was due to make a similar amount of money (Yolmer).
So you’re saying send the Rangers < $300k in international pool space and call it a day.
We ain’t gonna use it and Mazara’s due to make more than he’s ever been worth. Let some other sucker part with an actual asset for him and hope for a career breakout.
If Mazara is who we get to fill the right-field void on this team, then that’s very disappointing. The only way this is acceptable is if we have to give up a non-prospect for him, and we will continue to look for a better outfielder this offseason. Mazara would be an upgrade over what we had out there this past season, but he’s not much more than that.
Oh, yeah, I don’t want Mazara at all, and if they do get him he better not be the every day RF, or that fucking blows. People confuse “upgrade” with “good enough”. It’s pathetic how low fan expectations have already fallen after the Grandal signing.
I know he was a top prospect and all but it’s like people are completely ignoring that hes sucked in the majors for a pretty substantial amount of time. I dont get it. This isnt a “were trying to win” move.
Nope, it’s more dumpster diving bullshit in an offseason that was loaded with good to great talent available.
I guess this is what they mean when they say “the money will be spent.” They didn’t say it would be spent wisely, however.
I love that the same people who think it’s dumb to spend $300m on Manny Machado to produce 3-5 WAR a year for the next five or six years and eat some bad contract on the tail end believe that handing almost $6m to Mazara to be a replacement level player is the smart play “because he’s still young”.
Cardinals also are supposedly talking with the Rangers about Mazara.
Please, Texas, take the Cardinals’ offer for him.
I was actually going to say, I’d love to see a venn diagram of the people that hated the rumor that had them signing ozuna but are ok with mazara. Maybe it’s just my twitter feed tricking my brain into thinking those two populations overlap though I dunno.
The White Sox have long coveted Mazzara. When you bring in a player, it’s for what he can do, not what he did. If he comes here, I am going to love it, because his future is ours.
Yeah! Just look at AJ Reed!
I cant embed the tweet on my phone, but andy martino of SNY is reporting the mets are trying for starling marte and would be open to moving nimmo if they can get him.
Obviously wed all probably prefer marte, but nimmo would be interesting if they could weasel their way into that trade. Lefty, high obp, pretty decent defensively in a corner and can play some CF. Three years of control left.
Josh literally just scooped me on twitter haha!
I’d rather have Nimmo than Marte. He’d be a fine leadoff hitter ahead of Moncada.