PREAMBLE
Sorry I missed the first wave on this. And I’m probably not really adding to the discussion, but I like this project so here’s what I have:
There’s reason to be optimistic going into the upcoming season (core prospects and Jose Abreu had good years). There’s also reason to be pessimistic based on recent history (many losing seasons, front office incompetence, regression from nearly all of the marginal prospects).
Sox are probably not a winner if they rely solely on in-house options, so I’m spending the Machado money, but spreading it around on a lot of short-term deals. My goal is to put a higher floor team on the field without sacrificing the ceiling by trading prospects. I am going a little over budget. I have the payroll around $125 - $130 million at the start of the year. Last year this would have put the Sox in the middle of the pack with the Braves, Rangers, Brewers, Reds, and Twins. I know the Chicago market isn’t nearly as strong as Cincinnati or the Atlanta suburbs, but maybe it can get there one day.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M - tender
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M - non-tender and re-sign for $2M
- James McCann, $4.9M - tender
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M - tender
- Leury García, $4M - tender
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M - tender
- Josh Osich, $1M - non-tender
- Ryan Goins, $900K - non-tender
I still think Colome should have been traded at the deadline, given Mark Melancon had a market but the front office chose not to because they “needed a closer for next year,” so Colome stays.
I like Yolmer but not at his current price tag. I also don’t think anyone likes Yolmer at his current price tag, so I’m hopeful they can work something out.
Marshall and Osich are in the same boat for me. Marshall was more effective last year, so he gets tendered and Jimmy Cordero gets the other spot for 500K less than Osich.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout - hard pass.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) - retain; 3 yrs/$42M
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) - no
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) - no
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) - no (see you in 7 months, probably)
Abreu shouldn’t get a pay cut after leading the league in RBIs, but that’s not something the current market really values. I could see him getting $60 mil over 3 years like Edwin Encarnacion, but probably not from the White Sox.
FREE AGENTS
- J.D. Martinez (3 yrs - $75 million)
- Dallas Keuchel (3 yrs - $48 million)
- Brett Gardner (2 yrs - $18 million)
- Drew Pomeranz (3 yrs - $18 million)
- Alex Wood (1 yr - $5.5 million)
- Scooter Gennett (1 year - $2.5 million)
Short, higher AAV deals.
JD should probably get 100 mil in FA, but in the event that he doesn’t, he still outkicks the remainder of his Boston contract here. He’s still a dominant hitter and will be potent in the middle of this batting order. In the event that he stays with Boston or gets the 100 mil he deserves, then I’d opt for Mike Moustakas for something like 72 mil/4 yrs or 54 mil/3 yrs.
Keuchel did not have a good year – maybe that was due to the late start or maybe its due to natural regression – so his market might be a little hampered based on performance. Then again, demand for starters is pretty high and there isn’t a whole lot to write home about on the free agent market, so maybe someone offers him something a little more long-term. If I could get him on a 2-year deal, I would. I think I need at least 3. I won’t go to 4. He should be able to eat some innings, brings championship ball club experience to a clubhouse that should see what that actually looks like, and will be way cheaper than Bumgarner.
Gardner is coming off a good WAR year but is 36 years old, declining, and probably won’t be back in the Bronx. Maybe he rides off into the sunset, or maybe Kenny finally gets his man. Gardner can still (kind of) play the field, and like Keuchel, has experience being a part of a championship ball club. I can’t stay in-house here as none of Rutherford, Basabe, Adolfo, Walker, or Gonzalez decided they were ready to play in the majors yet. Those guys better not suck this upcoming year.
Pomeranz is a swing pitcher coming off a very good year and should be good for up to 100 innings this season. He had a great finish with Milwaukee which should inflate his value.
Wood & Scooter are reset button free agents rebuilding value before they do real free agency. Like living in your parents basement after college before getting a real job or deciding you don’t want one and going to grad school instead. Wood might not want to be a bullpen guy, and Scooter might not like holding down the fort for a guy actually shorter than he is. But they both like money…
Assuming these are balanced deals, I just gave ~70 million to free agents. That’s a lot of money, but these are short commitments that shouldn’t inhibit the ability to extend core players when the time comes; and the payroll never gets anywhere near luxury tax projections. Even with a lot of promising players hitting arbitration in 2021, the payroll probably never gets above 150 million.
TRADES
None
I addressed my needs through free agency as the impact prospects (Madrigal, Robert, Vaughn) are untouchable and I’m in wait-and-see mode on the marginal prospects & pop-up guys.
It’s possible that a left-handed starter or left-handed bat could be acquired through trade as opposed to free agency. But the quality of those guys looks a little iffy compared to what it would cost (e.g. I wouldn’t give up on Steele Walker for someone like Brandon Nimmo/Nomar Mazara. I wouldn’t give up Kopech for Robbie Ray; and I wouldn’t give up Stiever for Marco Gonzales.)
SUMMARY
Catching: James McCann, Zack Collins
- McCann’s going to get the lion’s share of the starts (probably 60-75%) and all of Giolito’s starts. Seby is on the 40-man and I’m adding Yermin Mercedes. If someone (any hitter) goes down, I’d want Mercedes up in the bigs and they can rotate the 3 catchers in order to preserve everyone’s knees.
Infield: Jose Abreu (1B), Scooter Gennett (2B), Tim Anderson (SS), Yoan Moncada (3B), J.D. Martinez (DH), Yolmer Sanchez (INF), Danny Mendick (INF)
- Barring injury or a kind of regression that doesn’t align whatsoever with his profile, Nick Madrigal will take over 2nd at some point this season. Hopefully, at that point Scooter has built up enough value to be dealt. Or maybe he returns to his random 30 homer self and I’ll just keep that bat for the playoffs. If Scooter clicks and I keep him, one of Mendick/Yolmer gets pushed off the roster. If Scooter doesn’t, then I’ll cut him.
Outfield: Eloy Jimenez (LF), Leury Garcia (CF), Brett Gardner (RF), Adam Engel (OF)
- Again, barring injury or a kind of regression that… actually might fit with his profile, Luis Robert will take over center field at some point this season. This pushes Leury to the bench and one of Mendick/Yolmer/Scooter off the roster.
Starting Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech
- Based on instructs, I am thinking Kopech will be ready to go and on a pitch count. In case he’s not ready, I have an insurance policy in Alex Wood on the major league roster. I don’t think the Sox have a staff that can pull off consistent bullpen games, so I need 5+ from these guys. The depth here isn’t all that great with Dunning, Lambert, and Rodon being out until at least mid-season. If someone goes down early we’re probably looking at Flores, Kubat, and Stiever getting looks as I would be cutting Fulmer, Covey, and Santiago from the organization.
Bullpen – Drew Pomeranz, Alex Wood, Jimmy Cordero, Evan Marshall, Jace Fry, Aaron Bummer, Kelvin Herrera, Alex Colome
- Reliever volatility is an issue, but this pen looks better on paper than last years. I am expecting bounce back years from Fry and Herrera, with some regression from Marshall, Bummer, and Colome. I think this bullpen will be OK (but probably not the strength of this team), and there are some reinforcements in Ian Hamilton, Tyler Johnson, Zack Burdi, Codi Heuer, Hunter Schryver, and Ryan Burr waiting in the wings.
Conclusion
The lineup carries a lot less dead weight than last year and could be really potent if the younger players produce near their ceilings and the vets don’t drop off all that much. The pitching staff (to me at least) seems a little more reliable and has a lot more upside. I think the floor is a 500 team with potential to win 90+ if Cease/Lopez/Kopech take a leap, the team stays healthy, doesn’t incur massive regression, and Madrigal and Robert turn into Pedroia and Acuna right away.
