Pitchers and catchers report this week, which will theoretically bring an end to an offseason that never really started. Based on the number of big-name players still unsigned, it feels somewhere between mid-December and early January.
The winter meetings were two months ago, which is when Ken Rosenthal initially mentioned that Manny Machado and Bryce Harper may be in a holding pattern as their agents try to wait each other out.
Two months later, he still can write that story:
Harper’s agent, Scott Boras, and Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, both are believed to be seeking at least $300 million. Neither wants to sign first, knowing once one of the players goes off the board, the other will benefit from gaining the sole attention of the remaining suitors.
The clubs, too, prefer to stall.
White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, for one, would prefer to chase the market rather than set it, according to sources. That way, he could avoid a bidding war, wait until the very end to hear the number he needs to reach, then decide whether he is willing to pay.
Usually a team in the White Sox' position -- one where money is the team's sole advantage -- has no choice but to set the market. The Sox have done so in smaller niches, breaking their three-year limit on pitchers to randomly sign Scott Linebrink for four after the 2007 season, then setting a new high for international players with Jose Abreu after 2013.
But those deals, best I can tell, were negotiated by Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn. Reinsdorf is directly handling this one, so there isn't a relevant precedent in play.
There are two ways to read Rosenthal's report:
Charitably: The White Sox are resisting the urge to bid against themselves when no other team has forced action, and Machado hasn't been presented, nor presented the White Sox with, a higher offer.
Uncharitably: Reinsdorf is hoping somebody else will blow away the field.
This pursuit has a hint of auction sweat to it -- bidding for the action and attention with the nagging fear of winning it -- but only a hint. Without reports of stronger offers, it just could be a sweeping revision of the conventional wisdom.*
Back when the free agent market behaved like a free market, the rule of thumb was that landing the top players required setting said market (or overpaying, depending on your perspective). GMs who insisted on remaining rational were going to finish in third.
What this offseason presupposes is, "What if they all remained 'rational'?"
That's what Sam Miller is pondering at ESPN, and specifically what it means for small-market teams. When a significant chunk of the league could stomach paying retail for big-name players, it might've been inherently unfair to the Milwaukees and Tampa Bays of the league in terms of payroll, but with the behemoths' attention elsewhere, their pursuits for winning cheaper faced less resistance.
Now, everybody is trying to swim laps in their lane. As Miller puts it, it's unfortunate if league conditions mean the Yankees sign Bryce Harper for $250 million when the Rays can only pony up $125 million, but it'd be way worse if the Yankees only had to pay $126 million. When all bids are close, there are other ways for the big guys to win:
In the NBA, for instance, salary restrictions keep the best players from making anywhere near their true market value. This has not, however, meant small markets have had equal access to the very best free agents. Rather, players who've found their earnings artificially capped have instead exercised their leverage to sign in the biggest markets, to get the most media exposure, to surround themselves with other stars, and to have the best chance of winning. If Bryce Harper's $400 million asking price is forced down to $300 million, or $200 million, or even -- extremely unlikely! -- $125 million, he's still probably not going to sign with the Rays, who aren't as attractive as the Yankees for any number of other reasons. Instead, the Yankees might just get a deal.
The White Sox are not a small-market team, although sometimes they act like it. They fit the bill in the above scenario in that they're a team with a miniature footprint and no recent success, and it hasn't been a fun place to play. Until Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada get a lot of help making the black-and-white Sox cap as cool as Kevin Durant and Boogie Cousins make it look, the Sox are going to have to inject some excitement from outside. It's unavoidable.
The question from here is whether the White Sox are trying to avoid it. It kinda looks like they are, in this situation where they could throw an aggressive top offer at Machado and face no armchair GM resistance for doing so. Alas, this process has drifted so far out to sea that I've lost all sense of direction. It's boring to say "we'll find out when we find out," but it's been a boring offseason.
(*In the past, "a sweeping revision of the conventional wisdom" has turned out to be collusion.)
