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P.O. Sox: So Houston liked Avisail Garcia…
Plus: Absorbing big contracts and non-tender possibilities
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Avisail Garcia – OF – White Sox
According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the White Sox are “actively trying” to trade Avisail Garcia.
The sense is that the White Sox could non-tender Garcia if they are unable to find a deal. The 27-year-old struggled through a right knee injury this past season while batting just .236/.281/.438 with 19 homers over 93 games. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on the knee last month. Garcia received a $6.7 million salary in 2018 and will get a raise in arbitration this winter, so interest could be limited
GOTTA MAKE ROOM FOR HARPER!!!!!!
Or McCutchen or Brantley, but either way I think we’re looking at improved outfield play.
I can’t remember, did Things Happen in Wednesdays or Tuesdays the last two off seasons?
I still think the Sox will sign Machado or Harper, but there is a good chance they won’t get either. I’m wondering if adding two 2nd tier guys like Pollock and Donaldson would be a good consolation prize. Would adding those two, a quality starter, a good reliever and maybe trading for a good controllable bat possibly give the Indians a run this year? Just curious what everyone thinks.
id want donaldson over cutch or brantley, but again the sox have had pretty bad luck when it came to free agent signings of semi older good not great players….
Except Donaldson isn’t far removed from being great.
A shoulder injury is problematic for a 3B, even if his legs benefit from moving to grass. It’d have to be am incetive-laden deal. And I bet someone else is willing to just guarantee Donaldson the money.
Even if he has to move to 1B/DH (which isn’t necessarily the case), his bat would still more than play.
That’s not a given. The injuries are still a problem for whether his bat returns to form. And 1B is a downgrade in value.
So I stand by the terms that would make sense for the Sox and the likelihood another team is in a better position to make a guaranteed gamble.
I’d be willing to take the gamble with 1B/DH as a reasonable fall back (less optimal, but still valuable). He’s probably aging past his effectiveness at 3B anyhow. But easy to say when it’s not my money, I guess.
For a 1b/DH, I rather sign Cruz over Donaldson.
DH isn’t a reasonable fallback at all because then you tack the DH penalty to his statline before the positional adjustment to his value.
Also, what’s happening with Abreu? And we still end up with Sanchez or Rondon in the lineup.
There’s not enough upside for all the risk and opportunity cost to give him the guaranteed deal someone else can.
It’s not ideal, but if you’re filling DH with a guy who can put up a .900 OPS, that’s hardly a contractual disaster because he isn’t playing third base. The upside is he can still play third base and they’ve solved that position for several years.
Except we have no reason to think he can put up a .900 OPS–or whatever measure of production you want to use–for reasons I’ve already mentioned: his injury history and the fact that hitters tend to be significantly less productive when they move to DH.
And you want to guarantee him multiple years? Pass.
He makes the most sense for a team already likely to be in 2nd place behind a strong frontrunner, not one clawing up from the bottom.
If he can pass a physical, he should be a target.
James Shields probably passed a physical or could have.
And again: DH penalty.
He’s also a pitcher, was healthy the season after he inked his FA deal, and a physical isn’t capable of measuring velocity loss. I’d imagine it would, however, show if a guy was completely incapable of making a throw from third base.
It’s not just whether he can throw the ball from 3B. It’s also whether he’s fully recovered and can produce at the plate. And it’s the risk of reaggravating the injury from having to make those throws and swing the bag. A physical isn’t answering that.
And the fallback to DH could cost him 100 points of OPS.
Good point. Nothing is more reliable than medical information shared by the San Diego Padres.
I think if they miss out on Harper or Machado, the only players worth prospects or draft picks are Grandal and Realmuto. Which really pushes them to look at the 3rd tier rather than the 2nd tier of free agents.
So Brantley or McCutchen on a short or creative deal for the OF instead of Pollock. And probably Happ rather than Corbin or Keuchel.
Why would they not be able to sign 2nd tier guys? They’d have all that money left from losing out on the top 2.
Draft pick compensation.
Donaldson is 33 and coming off an injury plagued not great season. The Sox have no business sniffing around.
Pollock is two years younger, so he makes more sense in terms of expected performance and Sox competitive window, but he’s hurt all the time.
You could talk me into both McCutchen or Brantley, but I wouldn’t go beyond three years.
And as a reminder, the Sox have to make up some combo of 27 wins (and/or Cleveland losses) and assume minimal improvement from the Twins.
There’s just such a big fall-off from Harper and Machado to the next tier that they really have to be all-in on those two.
I agree. They should be focused on Harper and Machado. But if they fail to land either one, then Brantley or McCutchen on a three year deal really isn’t a bad Plan B.
I think Brantley ends up in Atlanta. They could easily say to Cutch, here’s 3 years and $45m and you get to play center in 2019.
I dont want those guys. Its time to go after top tier free agents, not good players you hope don’t fall off the cliff cause they are aging or prone to lots of injuries.
I don’t think anyone disagrees with this. The question is, what strategy do they pivot to if/when Machado and Harper decide to go elsewhere?
my take is given the OF market, i just ride with avi one more season, sox are loaded long term with OF options, but of the older injury prone guys who use to be good, id roll the dice on donaldson given lack of organizational depth at 3rd
“If they go elsewhere”
Yeah really. If these signings drag on, as they might, teams that lose out could be standing on the platform after the train pulls out.
It sure looks like they are going after the top free agents, and I think they’ll sign one, but they have to have a plan B if they sign somewhere else. There is no guarantee they will get one of the top two, even if they offer huge $$$. I hope their plan B isn’t just go with what they’ve got. I can’t take another year of that.
I’d be fine if it just made room for Palka.
The Philles are shopping Carlos Santana. Will they take Avi or do they want a major leaguer?
I was looking at him too. He probably won’t cost much and he’s still a good player, which puts him right in their wheelhouse. My only issue would be what do you do with Palka then? He’s not someone you build an offseason around, but he was interesting enough that he deserves some kind of shot next season (more so than guys that would play some of the other vacant spots they currently have around the diamond).
Here was my thinking if the Phillies would take Avi for Santana.
Palka gets most of the starts in right until August. That makes CF defense more important; Engel gives you that but Pollock is available. If Pollock is signed to a front-loaded deal he is tradeable when Basabe/Robert are ready. Pollock’s injury history means he may be a reasonable cost but Engel has to stay on the 40-man because of it (I think he has an option left). Santana could fill the hole at third until Abreu is moved and then go to first. If Machado could be signed, then Abreu and Santana can take turns at 1B/DH. Palka has to play 600 innings in the outfield to be useful – the power is nice but his OBP isn’t good enough for DH duty. 2019 may be the last chance to evaluate him in the outfield; if his defense and OBP still stink, then he just goes away. I assume Delmonico gets LF the first 4 weeks of 2019, then when Eloy comes up either Delmonico, or Engel loses their 25-man roster spot (or Palka if he starts off bad). None of this addresses the fact that the pitching staff issues far too many walks.
This is great news. I think it means they’re not planning on phoning in 2019.
Definetly don’t want them tanking another year but I don’t want the team screwing themselves with some potentially bad contracts ether.
Sign Harper or Machado for sure. (I vote Harper so they will be able to trade from that strong minor league OF depth later for final pieces.) And fill in those back end rotation spots with some short 1 or 2 year contracts with guys that might be a trade piece at the deadline. But don’t overpay. The SP FA market is not that strong. I would rather bring in vet or 2 that can chew up innings and mentor the young staff, and if need be deal for a plus arm or 2 next offseason.
If they sign Harper or Machado, I doubt they will get one of the two big free agent SPs, Keuchel or Corbin. But I would like to see them add Eovaldi or Happ. I still think a big move they can make is trading for Whit Merrifield. The Royals will not be competitive til at least 2021, so they would have at most 2 years of Merrifield. The Sox would have him for the next 4 years. He is absolutely ideal for the top of the order and checks all the boxes the Sox are needing. It would cost at least Madrigal and one of our outfielders, but we would be adding an all-star to the top of the order with Moncada, Eloy, Abreu and Harper/Machado. And it would allow big money to be spent this winter, since he is not even arb-eligible yet. I’m sure the F/O is thinking they can compete with Cleveland this year with the right moves. I hope they go for it.
Judging by Moore’s recent comments, I’m not sure he shares your (or most people’s) view of the Royals competitive timeline.
But Moore has to look at the reality of the situation. If he could get 2 legitimate prospects with 6 years of control, I think he would change his tune.
Moore’s taken his eyes off the ball (the ball in this instance being getting his team to the playoffs). He is instead focused on a different ball, a ball that can more or less be described as “getting the boys to stop cranking it.”
Hey, the Royals just signed Michael Ynoa, so clearly they’re going for it.
I’m encouraged that they aren’t pulling a Dayan Viciedo and investing in a trade asset with no willing suitors. I’m not sure Avi would even get 1 year/$8 million as a free agent right now.
That’s what makes arbitration so weird. Didn’t Viciedo win his case, only to get cut and have to sign a minor league deal elsewhere? What kind of system is it where the arbitrator is the stupidest person involved?
Viciedo never went to an arbitration hearing. He and the Sox agreed on a contract, and the Sox DFA’d him in January. The Sox were on the hook for one-sixth of the contract.
After the Sox released him he signed with the Blue Jays and was cut before the season started. The A’s picked him up midseason and he played for their AAA team but never got a callup. He’s been in Japan since 2016 and put up big numbers in 2018.
MLBTR posits Avi as a reasonable buy-low target for the Pirates, so maybe there are some potential buyers out there who are willing to part with a low grade prospect (not betting on it, but it’s possible, I suppose). Click on the Josh Bell link if you want a chuckle.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/offseason-outlook-pittsburgh-pirates-9.html
Which part is funnier, the uniform or the position?
Do they know something we don’t?
It’s the wrong Josh Bell.
Foiled by the b-ref linker once again. Always double-check those links, otherwise it’ll find links for names you didn’t even meant to link to, sometimes! (As it did for “Bill James” in my Sporcle, before I caught it.)
There’s some value in trading something small for him, in that you know you have him for a year at the arb salary, instead of potentially having to compete with some other unknown team to grab him as a free agent. It’s possible he gets a second year, or a higher salary for the one year, if there turned out to be a market for him as a FA.
I could see it happening if the White Sox were willing to throw in a few million. The likelihood is greater that he won’t justify $8 million than he will, so I think the White Sox would have to cover some of the financial risk on their end if they wanted any sort of prospect return at all.