Tuesday afternoon, Jon Morosi formally put the White Sox into a rumor mill with a post that positioned the Sox, as well as the Yankees, to take advantage of Mike Moustakas' flagging market.
Well, kinda. The way Morosi put it, the teams would take advantage of Moustakas' lack of suitors by creating a long-term fit for him, rather than merely trying to get him on a rebound deal.
One National League executive said Monday that the Yankees and White Sox have the best chances to land Moustakas, based on current market conditions. The Royals also could re-sign Moustakas, although their front office is prepared to start rebuilding with younger players. Some within the industry see the Cardinals as a fit for Moustakas, but they appear comfortable with incumbent third baseman Jedd Gyorko, who hit 50 home runs over the past two seasons.
The White Sox want to add a long-term third baseman in the next 12 months and could seize the opportunity to sign Moustakas now, rather than pursue free agents Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson during the 2018-19 offseason. Third base is the rare position at which the White Sox haven't procured an elite prospect in trades over the past couple years.
Shortly after this thought went live, the Yankees acquired third baseman Brandon Drury in a three-team deal with the Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks. Drury doesn't quite replicate Moustakas' production, but he gives the Yankees a decent bat (.275/.323/.453 the last two years), as well as depth at both second as well as third, so it reduces any urgency.
The Yankees could still use Moustakas, but they don't need him. For one, they might look at Drury as somebody who can bust out with everyday at-bats. If an above-average utility infielder is indeed his Drury's lane, top prospect Gleyber Torres could be able to step into one of those positions for good at some point during the first half.
So that theoretically leaves the White Sox as the team that could integrate Moustakas most seamlessly (Morosi also mentions the Cardinals, but Jedd Gyorko has been fine there). The rub here is that Yolmer Sanchez might've been a better overall player in terms of Wins Above Replacement last season:
- Sanchez: 3.5 bWAR; 2.1 fWAR
- Moustakas: 1.8 bWAR; 2.2 fWAR
That assessment comes down to whether you believe in one season of defensive metrics (and only a partial season for Sanchez at third). In terms of offense, there's a clear distinction, even with Sanchez closing the gap in September.
- Sanchez: .313 wOBA; 94 wRC+
- Moustakas: .345 wOBA; 114 wRC+
I think Sanchez can be an above-average third baseman over the course of the season, but Moustakas has also played that part, too, and it's too early to peg him for a decline. Todd Frazier experienced a similar metric blip in his first year with the White Sox, but he bounced back to be a strong defender at third base in 2017.
I'm comfortable guessing that Moustakas will be a level above Sanchez as an everyday third baseman in 2018. That has its own benefits, but adding Moustakas in particular gives the Sox balance in the middle of the order, and also theoretically prevents a cascade failure at third base if Sanchez encountered the Peter Principle as an everyday option (Matt Davidson is the only other player on paper who can prevent a roster landslide there).
For a one- or two-year deal, the question is whether these benefits to the White Sox outweigh discovering Sanchez's ceiling, as well as forfeiting their second-round pick. I'd lean toward a boatload of Yolmer for what should be the last rebuilding year, but I'd enjoy a better White Sox team at a not-tremendous cost, as it's similar to the Welington Castillo signing. Royals fans would also cringe at the sight of Moustakas in Chicago, if the reactions to this tweet can be extrapolated. It's a simple philosophical divide, all in all.
I hadn't really anticipated Morosi's idea of the White Sox signing Moustakas to a long-term contract, and I can understand the rationale to a certain extent. Maybe the Sox solve a position a year earlier than expected while bidding against nobody (especially if his defense rebounds to historical levels), freeing up resources to pursue other solutions.
But that'd require the White Sox to have ironed out the pro-scouting issues that kneecapped just about all of their previous attempts to solve holes with secondary free agents, and I have little faith in them here, especially since other teams with better track records found third basemen elsewhere this winter. Botching a long-term signing at this point greatly reduces the margin for error before the framework is even truly in place. (And not to mention it gives the Royals a fifth first-day draft pick.)
I imagine the White Sox believe in themselves more than I do, so the fear of failure alone wouldn't stop them from going hard for Moustakas. It's probably the other parts -- belief in Sanchez, belief in Jake Burger, and/or conserving all draft picks in order to stock the cupboard during what they hope is their last time in the top five.
Rick Hahn talked about it without talking about it, but if you want an official reaction, here one is:
“We’re having conversations with other clubs and obviously there are still a few free agents floating around, but we’re preparing right now as if we’ll choose the 25 from the group in camp right now,” Hahn said. [...]
“Certainly, if the opportunity rises to come up with another piece that fits for the long term we won’t hesitate to move on that,” Hahn said. “And, if for whatever reason, we see the opportunity to round out the roster a little bit in a way that makes sense … then we’ll certainly move on it.”
