Armchair’s 2024 Offseason Plan: A Royal Flush
PREAMBLE
The 2023 organization was straight garbage and they decided to reward Chris Getz with a promotion. In the presser, the owner stated that Getz was the choice because he was most likely to lead the team to be competitive in 2024 and Branch Rickey’s been dead for 60 years. The only sure outcome of Chris Getz getting this promotion is that Berto from the West Side will call into Waddle & Silvy in 2038 with a follow up to his legendary rant.
While the front office has a recent history of lying to the fans – I’m choosing to take a few things at face value from Getz’s introductory presser in structuring this team.
1) The team will “attempt to” be competitive;
2) bad people will be removed from the organization;
3) the organization desires an overhaul in the international market; and
4) they’re still the White Sox.
Here’s my plan as it aligns with these talking points.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Clint Frazier: $900K (non-tender)
Dylan Cease: $8.8MM (tender)
Michael Kopech: $3.6MM (tender)
Trayce Thompson: $1.7MM (non-tender)
Matt Foster: $740K (non-tender)
Touki Toussaint: $1.7MM (tender)
Garrett Crochet: $900K (tender)
Andrew Vaughn: $3.7MM (tender)
OPTIONS
- Liam Hendriks (club option): $15 M – decline
- Tim Anderson (club option): $14 M – decline
- Mike Clevinger (mutual option): $12 M – Clevinger will decline
Hendriks had TJ in August. From a time value of money standpoint it makes sense to spread the $15 million he’s owed across 10 years as opposed to eating it now. Anderson is not worth $14 million dollars right now and there’s significant “Kimbrel risk” in picking up the option and trying to trade him even factoring in the scarcity in the shortstop market. He definitely isn’t in the 2025 or 2026 plans, so I’m cutting bait now.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Elvis Andrus, Bryan Shaw, Jose Urena – no.
- Yasmani Grandal – fuck no.
FREE AGENTS
This is mostly a guess as to what the Sox might do as it aligns with the talking points identified in the preamble, because my real goal would be to sign Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Cody Bellinger.
The White Sox Only Sign People They Know
No. 1: Lucas Giolito (SP – R) (29 years old) (one year, $15 million + 3 player options at the same value)
No. 2: Jakob Junis (RP – R) (31 years old) (two years, $10 million)
No. 3: Whit Merrifield (UTIL – R) (35 years old) (one year, $4.5 million)
No. 4: Adalberto Mondesi (INF – S) (28 years old) (one year, $2 million)
No. 5: Mike Moustakas (3B – L) (1000 years old) (one year, $2 million)
We’re bringing back Giolito as he’s fallen back into a desirable price range and has had the majority of his success pitching for the White Sox. Giolito’s been a very shrewd negotiator ever since he was drafted, and this deal gives him a lot of power in that it secures him at a minimum, $60 million and gives him full control over the contract.
While the former Royals are not technically old friends, the front office and coaching staff have absorbed/been infected by a lot of Royals connections. They’re going to want to bring in a few more. Since this is still the White Sox, they’re going to come in cheap.
Junis is the most logical fit as he’s both a former Royal and a student of the White Sox’ new director of pitching. Merrifield is apparently sharpied in as the White Sox second baseman already. I’m paying him what his price should be. If anyone wants to bid more than that, I’ll take Lenyn Sosa for league minimum please. Mondesi & Moustakas have similar logic – I’m not ready to ruin Bryan Ramos or Colson Montgomery.
The White Sox Want to Expand Internationally, but They’re Still the White Sox
No. 6: Livan Moinelo (RP – L) (28 years old) (four years, $12 million)
No. 7: Trevor Bauer (SP – R) (33 years old) (one year, $10 million)
We’re going to the NPB for pitching because it’s less expensive and the front office claimed they want to find a new way to sign older Cuban players (even though this is damn near exactly what they did with Oscar Colas). Per Fangraphs, Moinelo sits 93-96 and peaks at 98. He also has two breaking balls and a changeup that he tunnels well. He has a sub 2.00 ERA in 300 NPB innings with 422 strikeouts. However, he only has 40 saves. He’s a potential back end option.
No one who’s happy with their life likes Trevor Bauer. There are obvious character flags that bring his price tag down to a point where there’s considerable upside when you only evaluate him on his pitching ability. The Sox employed Darryl Boston for decades, traded for Brett Myers, and rushed to sign Mike Clevinger last offseason – so they don’t care about character flags at all. Bauer is also very outspoken about his disdain for Rob Manfred, which is something the owner would probably vibe with.
The Sox might actually be pretty happy with Bauer’s character flags because, above all else, this White Sox are always very interested in not spending money on pitching.
TRADES
I’m treating “get rid of the bad people” as get rid of the players that every single fan hates watching.
No. 1: Trade Aaron Bummer and Matthew Thompson to the Giants for Ross Stripling, Mike Yastrzemski and Blake Sabol
San Fran will be in the Ohtani & Yamamoto sweepstakes and will look to clear some bad salary (Stripling). In order to make up for the value discrepancy between Stripling and Bummer, we’re taking their 3rd catcher and 4th outfielder.
No. 2a: Trade Yoan Moncada and Korey Lee to the Nationals for Patrick Corbin and Keibert Ruiz or Riley Adams
When he’s not doing “injury rehab” at the finest nightclubs in River North, Yoan Moncada pretends to play baseball. In order to get rid of his terrible contract, the Sox need to take on a worse contract. I am taking one of the Nats catchers in order to even out the valuation. Ruiz has more clout, but Adams is probably the better player if you look at the numbers.
No. 2b: Flip Keibert Ruiz/Riley Adams + some mid-tier prospects like Ryan Burrowes and Terrell Tatum to the Cubs for Christopher Morel
Regardless of which catcher we acquire from the Nats, I’m flipping them to the Cubs for Christopher Morel as the Cubs have a lot of middle infield depth, their fanbase seemingly hates him, and the front office isn’t sure if Miguel Amaya is their guy behind the plate. Morel hits dingers and can sort of fake it at any position on the diamond.
No. 2c: Flip Patrick Corbin to the Royals for Salvador Perez
Not only was trading for Salvador Perez required per Sox Machine Offseason Plan Project rules, but it was repeatedly encouraged and endorsed by Josh and Jim.
In order to fulfill the requirement of acquiring Salvador Perez, I’m flipping Patrick Corbin’s bad contract to Kansas City. It would be less convoluted to just trade Moncada for Perez, but why would I give Kansas City any real upside. This is what Perez SHOULD cost. And Kansas City should probably flip Vinnie Pasquantino to the South Side in this deal if we’re being totally honest on value.
No. 3: Trade Gavin Sheets and Jared Kelley to the Rays for Greg Jones
Jones plays shortstop and center, runs well, switch hits, has some pop, strikes out a ton, and is still blocked even in the post-Wander Franco era. The Rays have a weird fascination/development program for slow, left-handed power hitters and we’re sick of Gavin Sheets. It’s a match. We’ll throw in a reliever prospect as well.
No. 4: Trade Andrew Vaughn, Garrett Crochet, and minor league pitcher of the year Tyler Schweitzer to the Mets for Pete Alonso
Sox will then pay Pete Alonso’s arbitration salary ($21.1 million) this season and extend him for five years, $130 million
I don’t think Vaughn or Crochet are “bad guys” so much as the White Sox put them in a position to disappoint. The White Sox lineup needs more power and this is something Alonso has provided consistently throughout his career. The contract extension matches Paul Goldschmidt’s contract.
SUMMARY
Catching: Blake Sabol (L), Salvador Perez (R) ($20.75 million in payroll)
We’re auditioning Sabol to be Edgar Quero’s eventual backup catcher since Korey Lee wasn’t it.
Salvador Perez can hold down the fort until Quero is ready. In terms of leadership, he can join his buddy Grifol in berating anyone who gets paid less than him.
Infield: Pete Alonso (R), Whit Merrifield (R), Christopher Morel (R), Mike Moustakas (L), Greg Jones (S), Adalberto Mondesi (S) ($34.5 million in payroll)
Two bombers. Two speedsters. Three former Royals. We’ll see what happens.
Outfield + DH: Andrew Benintendi (L), Luis Robert Jr. (R), Mike Yastrzemski (L), Oscar Colas (L), Eloy Jimenez (R) ($51.5 million in payroll)
New Yaz takes over in right. Colas is on the bench getting yelled at by Grifol for not hustling to the Gatorade cooler.
Starting Pitching: Dylan Cease (R), Lucas Giolito (R), Trevor Bauer (R), Ross Stripling (R), Touki Toussaint (R) ($48 million in payroll)
Bullpen: Livan Moinelo (L), Gregory Santos (R), Michael Kopech (R), Jordan Leasure (R), Jesse Scholtens (R), Jakob Junis (R), and two of the Tanner Banks/Luis Patino/Deivi Garcia/Alex Speas/Lane Ramsey tier of quad A relievers ($14.75 million in payroll)
The Giants used Stripling in a bulk relief role, so I could see the Sox piggybacking him with Kopech and hoping that tandem can cover 6 or 7 innings. I’m not buying Kopech as a starter but I’m also not ready to give up on him completely. Giolito, Cease, and Bauer are here to eat innings. Touki is what guys like Nick Nastrini and Cristian Mena have to beat in order to break into the rotation.
Payroll: $169.5 million in salary; $182 million factoring in Hendriks, Anderson, and Clevinger buyouts + Abreu and Leury deferred money
CONCLUSION
The pitching staff has three guys who have pitched to a cy young level earlier in their careers and aren’t over the hill yet.
The hitters I added via trade all hit the ball in the air other than maybe Greg Jones since he’s only played in the minors. I got rid of the players that most of us don’t like and added players that we don’t dislike yet, other than all the Royals. And Bauer. Sorry about that one.
I’m not happy with the Royals influx, but it looks like that’s the organization who holds the most influence over the Sox. God forbid the Sox try to emulate those nerds over in Tampa who make the playoffs every year.
This team should hit more homers and play better outfield defense, but it’s probably a 500 team. There are a lot of interesting short-term commitments that could function as trade bait at the deadline.
Thanks, I hate it.
wow