Podcast: Liam Hendriks and other crazy MLB trade ideas
Record Date: 12/21/2022
Rundown:
- Jim wrote an excellent column about what Andrew Benintendi’s power production boost could look like with the White Sox. Paired with insight from James Fegan, it seems Benintendi is ready to join team Ball in Air.
- Those crazy New York Mets found a way to sign Carlos Correa. Will this super team approach work?
- The Mets are also not done adding, as they are approaching the White Sox about Liam Hendriks. Are these teams good partners in such a deal?
- We also asked our followers for their crazy trade ideas and share them with you.
I see Mets Twitter saying the Sox have been asking about Guillorme. I may be the only Sox fan on Earth that thinks Guillorme plus a high prospect would be a good deal for Hendriks, but maybe it happens anyway.
The Sox could do worse at 2B than Guillorme. But that’d be a very disappointing return for Hendriks and, if given the option, I’d rather keep Hendriks. Guillorme does hit well vs. RHP, but he’s a disaster vs. LHP. He’s basically a veteran platoon player. He’s a more stable Leury Garcia or a better-fit version of Danny Mendick. If the “high prospect” is Brett Baty or the like, then, okay, let’s deal. Otherwise, pass.
I may be disappointed by the return, but no way I want to keep Hendriks if we could have Guillorme plus one of the Mets high prospects instead. If that’s the best deal there is for him, that should tell us that we’re overvaluing Hendriks if we don’t want the deal.
The market should by all logic be so good for him right now — with several teams that have guys we probably want (Torres, Jansen+Biggio, Busch, Gorman, etc.) and would die for an elite closer — that it is hard to imagine a situation in which it would be a bad idea to just trade him for whatever the best offer is. This is particularly true since we will still have a good bullpen with him gone.
As for Guillorme, I’m pretty sure we’re all traumatized by Leury at this point, but that doesn’t mean that every guy currently playing a 2B/utility role is automatically bad. Steamer thinks Guillorme will be worth 1 fWAR in only 55 games in 2023. Spread that out over 120 games (essentially, only playing him against RHP), and it would be 2.2 fWAR. Now add in whatever fWAR we can expect at the position from RH Sosa/Rodriguez/Gonzalez hitting in the 40 or so remaining games (against LHP), which I assume should be at least 0.3-0.5. Getting about 2.5-2.7 fWAR this year from 2B (only about the 50% projection from Steamer), would be worth Hendriks.
Last thing: Leury’s best 3 years by far were at ages 28, 29, and 30. Then he tanked at age 31. Guillorme will be 28 next year. If we really want to use Leury as a model. Guillorme will be a quality starting LH2B for the next 3 years. Add in a high-level prospect, and this seems a no-brainer to me.
I’m all about hoping the best available deal for Hendriks is Busch or something like that, but if it isn’t, they should be ready to trade him for less. Maybe they don’t want to telegraph that to other teams, so “we’re fine keeping Hendriks” may be a good bargaining strategy. But IMO he’s got to go.
Hopefully Hahn is engaged with all of those teams. All he needs is one to meet his asking price. I would be happy with any one of Torres, Jansen/Biggio, Busch or Gorman.
There’s a reason steamer thinks he’ll only play 55 games: he’s a platoon player. He shouldn’t play 120 games. He’s Adam Engel-esque in that regard.
I didn’t say Leury was bad. The contract is terrible. The player, when well deployed, is still useful (even if he wasn’t last year). I just said Guillorme is a more stable version of Leury. Which he is.
Again, it depends on the prospect, I suppose. But a trade based around Hendriks for Guillorme is a bad one. If that’s the best they can do, I hope they keep Hendriks.
Really odd tidbit that McCann had the whitesox on his no trade list…..
I actually like the idea of Graveman for Escobar a lot, I dont think thats an overpay for the sox. Escobar gives them another lefty (s) hitter in the lineup and he has a reasonable option for 2024 if sosa, romy, rodriquez types stall out in the minors. Start the conversation with the mets as Kelly and a prospect and see if they bite but my guess is it would take Graveman.
I’m thinking the Mets are only interested in Hendriks. They have Ottavino, Robertson, Brooks Raley and other Graveman-type relievers. I think they’re after another lock-down closer to pair with Diaz.
Not sure a match exists then unless we are back on the Liam for McNeil idea.
Mets seem to make a better trade partner at the deadline then now…. certainly would love to get my hands on Baty or Parade…. long term those pieces could really help the sox and its not clear how they would fit the mets other then trade pieces.
I wouldn’t mind a Graveman-for-Escobar swap, but I still think they should explore Hendriks for McNeil first. Even if the Sox have to add a couple of prospects (like I did in my OPP trade), it’s worth considering. The Cohen regime has shown not to care about spending money, but they may still want to build up a strong farm system, too.
What about Hendriks, Jose Rodriguez, and one of the HS pitchers for McNeil? That’s a start, anyway.
Even though the trade simulator is trash, it accepts that McNeil trade.
That would be good. I wouldn’t take anything less than a starting MLB 2B or a “can’t miss” prospect like Michael Busch if I’m trading Hendriks.
I have no idea why the Mets would trade McNeil. Where is this even coming from? A team that just spent a billion dollars on free agents isn’t looking to downgrade at any position.
Because of their stated interest in Hendriks. If they are interested in Hendriks, who is by far the best reliever available, then the Sox should hold out for McNeil. No McNeil, no Hendriks. I’m sure the Mets will likely say no, but giving up McNeil should be the only way they get Hendriks. The Sox would obviously have to sweeten the pot, but Escobar or Baty or Guillorme would not be enough of a headliner for the Sox to give up Hendriks.
The team looking to deal their All-Star closer because they won’t spend enough to get good players at every position isn’t the one dealing from a position of strength. The one that already has a World Series contender and an All-Star closer is.
That’s fine. Then they don’t get Hendriks. We’re not the one who made up the Mets want Hendriks story. If they have an all-star closer why would they want him? There must be a reason. And, yes, the Sox are dealing from a position of strength on this one. They have something that the Mets want that they can’t get anywhere else. So they can hold out for what they want. If it’s not McNeil, and I’m pretty certain it won’t be, then they move on to LA or St Louis or Toronto or the Yankees to shop Hendriks.
The thing that’s weird about this is that a team looking to obtain a top-of-the line closer is presumably looking to compete, and a team looking to compete shouldn’t be trading away good MLB starting position players. I don’t see how the Sox get anything back other than prospects or bench players, regardless of how relievers have been valued this offseason. I hope I’m wrong.
No, you’re absolutely right. They almost certainly won’t give up McNeil. Then they don’t get Hendriks. The problem for the Mets is, if they really want Hendriks, there is no one else available who comes close to having the same value as Hendriks does. This is one of the few times where the Sox hold the cards on something. The reliever free agent pool has been picked clean. Unless the Mets can pry another top-notch reliever away from a team we don’t know about, Hendriks is the only top-notch reliever available. Hahn needs to hold firm, and not give Hendriks up without getting what he really wants in return. And that should be a high-quality 2nd baseman.
Exactly. I cannot recall any instance basically ever where a team has traded a good position player straight up for a closer. If it has ever happened, was probably part of a salary dump. A marginal position player like Escobar, yes. Somebody like McNeil, ridiculous to even consider.
Best the Sox can hope for is probably Busch, who is basically an MLB ready prospect with high ceiling. Left handed power hitter too, which is exactly what the Sox need for a multi year period. Busch is my highest hope for Liam, by far. Even if it would take more than Liam to get Busch I would probably be for it.
You are right it is unusual, but then most trades for starting players is for prospects so it shouldn’t be that surprising for contenders. The surprising is just how few trades of any significance happen during the offseason by contenders. Of the WS winners since 2010 you have the 2012 Giants with Melky, 2016 Cubs with Adam Warren for Starling Castro, 2017 Astros with McCann, and 2020 Dodgers with Betts. most acquisitions are FA and then some deadline moves. I guess most WS winners are pretty much set teams going into their championship season. Oh and none off them started the season with 2 rookies in their lineup and only a couple with one.
Yeah, this is why I think the Sox should explore a 3-team trade that involves sending Liam to a contender, and that contender and the Sox send prospects to Pittsburgh for Reynolds!
But… it’s not like the White Sox are the only team in this position. Other MLB teams have positions of abundance and positions of need.
Seems like Cohen is running a very, very expensive fantasy team. I agree that he doesn’t need Hendriks but he HAS to have him.
I was kind of hoping Mendick resigned with the Sox. I’d rather see him rather than Garcia.
I don’t think they will now, either, but the idea isn’t wholly without merit. There are some reasons to think McNeil’s value is at its peak: he’s heading into age 31 season, hitting arbitration, and last season’s performance was very driven by a high average/BABIP.
Selling high from a position of abundance for another win-now piece plus prospects isn’t wholly unreasonable.
It is amazing how far people will twist logic to deny reality. McNeil’s WAR was 5.7 last year, about 3.5X what Liam was. McNeil is 31, Liam is about to turn 34. In no universe are the Sox getting McNeil!
The only reason I’ve talked about the Sox acquiring McNeil is because of the story being reported that the Mets are interested in Hendriks. So if I’m Rick Hahn, the only way I trade Hendriks to the Mets is if they get McNeil. No one here is suggesting a straight-up trade. But if the Mets want Hendriks, the deal must include McNeil. At which point the Mets almost certainly hang up. Then the Sox can cross them off their list and turn to other teams who might be interested in Hendriks. If no one if willing to part with what the Sox want, then they keep Hendriks.
And it was 1.4 in 2021 the same as Hendriks.
Now, which part of what I said, exactly, is twisting logic or denying reality? Is it the part where I said that I don’t think they’d trade McNeil? Or the rest of the post, where I simply stated facts?
Let’s say Jeff McNeill, a 2B coming off a 6 WAR season, were a free agent this winter, and the Mets had as internal options Escobar (a natural 3B, and below-average defender there) and light-hitting utility-man Guillorme. Given how the Mets have operated this winter, how much would they pay to upgrade that position to McNeill?
Then ask, ok, given how much they’d spend to get a player like that, and given the fact that they already have that player well below what he’d make as a free agent, why they hell would they give that up?
Yes, I’m sure they’d like to have Hendriks as well. But McNeill has a lot more value than Hendriks does, and they clearly don’t want to go into a season with a hole at 2B. Hendriks and a platter of poo-poo prospects from the White Sox shit farm system isn’t going to get it done either.
I’m not sure why you’ve taken such a convoluted route to say you don’t think the Mets will trade McNeil. I don’t know how to say it clearer than before, so maybe if I quote myself in bold, that will help: I don’t think they will trade McNeil, either.
My point was that it’s not like, you know, insane to trade a player likely at the absolute peak of his value, and at a position of abundance, for an upgrade elsewhere plus prospects. That’s a reasonable idea, even if the team doesn’t care about money. Again, I’m not saying they will. I’m just saying it’s not like utterly absurd.
The Mets just signed Danny Mendick. It’s over. No one is stopping this super team.
Also they trade James McCann to the Orioles so we can be done with that fantasy
The Mets will now probably offer Mendick to the Sox for Hendriks.
The last time the Sox brought back a player they non-tendered the same offseason, he turned around to post a 4.9 fWAR. You can’t tell me you wouldn’t trade Hendriks for a middle infielder with the free agency pedigree of a guy who posted a 4.9 WAR.
I question whether Jerry would even allow a trade to the Mets seeing that he disapproves of Cohen being an Owner.
I’ve thought about that too. Jerry has to really loathe Cohen. He may not want to deal with him out of spite.
If we are talking fan trade ideas: the trade value simulator has Raphael Devers about the same value as a package headlined by Montgomery and includes a Sosa/Lambert type guy.
Red Sox have some tough decisions to make…
I think the Laureano trade idea is interesting. I don’t have much need for Kemp but Laureano could be interesting. Not sure what the A’s would want and it may be best to just go sign Duvall (they’d do about the same thing) but it’s an option worth exploring at least.
On a similar thought is Jo Adell from the Angels. At this point he shouldn’t cost more than Laureano but again maybe better to just sign Duvall.
How about a 3-team deal centered around:
Mets get Liam Hendriks
Rays get Brett Baty
Sox get Brandon Lowe
There would probably have to be some other pieces moved to make it even, but all three team would get something they want: Mets get their stud reliever, Sox get their 2nd baseman, Rays get a young controlled bat.
I thought about this but Lowe’s health doesn’t sound too good.
Has there been any news on him since the end of the season? I know he missed the end of the season with a back issue.
I just saw he was transferred to the 60 day DL on 9/28 for his back.
Yeah, that’s the last I saw.
I always appreciate the love!
My focus was depth pieces that wouldn’t cost much versus a blockbuster.
I still think Romy or Sosa get some PT. Kemp can platoon with them and can also play LF. OAA and UZR both peg him as above average at 2nd. He’s not sexy but provides depth, good d at 2nd, above average walk rate, speed, contact and doesn’t cost much.
Laureano has some pop and can play all three OF positions. We need OF depth. He doesn’t offer much consistency with the bat but has a good glove.