The Twins and Guardians both made moves to shore up their catching positions over the last 24 hours, and it could’ve been worse.
Just like Matt Olson, last winter’s most coveted Oakland A, Sean Murphy made all the sense in the world to shore up a major position of need in Cleveland. Just like Olson, Murphy instead went to Atlanta in a three-team deal that seems more quantity-than-quality for Oakland.
The Guardians then went and signed Mike Zunino for one year and $6 million, and the concern level hinges on which Zunino Cleveland is getting.
The 2021 version hit .216/.301/.559 with 33 homers over 109 games, which was good enough for an All-Star appearance and an MVP vote.
The 2022 version hit .148/.195/.304 with 46 strikeouts over 123 plate appearances before undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome on his left shoulder, which would mean that Cleveland would merely be replacing one Austin Hedges with a slightly more powerful version.
Zunino looks like a decent stopgap while Cleveland waits to see whether Bo Naylor can become a dependable first-stringer, but there’s a chance that it could also amount to nothing. Alas, Cleveland received the second-worst production in the league from the catcher position last year, and that didn’t seem to hold them back.
Prior to Cleveland’s signing of Zunino, the Minnesota Twins also moved to shore up its catching depth by landing the free agent market’s best backstop. They signed Christian Vázquez to a three-year, $30 million contract.
Vázquez hit .274/.315/.399 over 119 games in 2022, with his better work coming with the Red Sox (.282/.327/.432) prior to the deadline deal to Houston (.250/.278/.308). Vázquez didn’t make enough of a dent to unseat Martin Maldonado as the Astros’ primary catcher, but he represented a major upgrade over the non-Maldonado options and still served enough of a purpose and won his second World Series ring as a result.
Vázquez replaces Gary Sánchez, and while he won’t match Sánchez’s power, he does everything else better, including hitting right-handed pitching, which means that holdover Ryan Jeffers can be shielded against lefties. The Twins received middle-of-the-pack production from their catchers, and while Vázquez doesn’t figure to move that needle, he should reduce some of the Twins’ boom-and-bust issues in the lineup.
Did not realize Zunino had thoracic outlet syndrome. I think pitchers generally don’t fare well after the surgery, is there any history with position players?
Jared Walsh just had the surgery, can’t think of any prior though.
TOS is (allegedly) what derailed the basketball career of Markelle Fultz. The unofficial diagnosis had still been a scary one for a 20 year old whose team traded up for #1 overall pick for: the “yips”. 6th season in the league and he has yet to play his 150th game. And while he’s shown he can do what it takes to be a rotational guy, it completely decimated the shooting ability he displayed in college.
It may affect throwing from the plate and/or batting, or it may not. If it’s just one or the other, Zunino is still talented enough to warrant a roster spot.
His shooting is actually better at the FT line as a pro the last few years than when he was in college. I think it’s a little unfair to say he has the yips, he had a legitimate diagnosed injury, and was probably vastly overrated as a shooter coming out of college, setting unfair expectations. He shot 65% from the FT line in college, pretty damn bad.
I meant the yips were how it was described pre-TOS diagnosis. IIRC he still practiced through those first few years in the league–was otherwise mostly in game shape–but his shot was way off, even given the limitations he showed in college.
Not for non-throwing shoulder that I can recall, that’s pretty unusual
The Guardians ensuring they don’t lose production from the position, by supporting their top 100 prospect with some veteran depth, is smart……
Baltimore ran, Cleveland ran, Houston ran, now the Sox will have the same catcher to keep these teams honest ? I fail to understand the philosophy of standing still and just treading water as others improve. There are white sox scouts that are not doing their job in advising the current difference makers in options. Insanity !!!!
Honestly, I think that poor scouting (possibly excluding Marco Paddy) and player development are the unacknowledged fatal flaws of the White Sox. With the single exception of TA, you have to go back to Chris Sale for a player the Sox drafted who became a quality regular. If you look at any of the consistently successful franchises, they have a core of home grown players, even if they also spend a lot. Our core consists almost entirely of players acquired after they were drafted elsewhere.
I do think I’ve noticed a change in the org’s top-down philosophy since 2020, though it isn’t yet visible at the big league level.
The team has been decreasingly shopping with prospects and bonus pool money, even as Mike Shirley has netted $76.4MM of value (figure I got from Baseball Trade Values) through the past 3 drafts. Of course, some of that was necessitated by our farm system bottoming out.
The club’s promotion of “Project Birmingham” across social media channels may be a pitiful consolation for fans of an era that anticipated a “Parade Michigan Avenue”, but nonetheless one that shows some commitment to development. The jury is out on Chris Getz, but I at least feel like he is trying to show results at his job — even for an organization that will probably reward him regardless of whether he does or not.
There are plenty of reasons for fans to be pessimistic, but I can comfortably say that I feel better about the White Sox homegrown talent now than at any point throughout the rebuild.
The Sox are not treading water. They are sinking, and appear to be perfectly content with drowning.
Hey, have you seen the price of a life preserver these days?
None of these are earth-shattering moves. I can’t believe we’re not making more of an effort to win this division and more.
“I can’t believe we’re not consistent division champions” should be the white sox imitation butter product.
Regardless of what other teams do, Hahn is strategizing to address all the Sox needs as we speak. He’s not going to rest on his laurels after signing Victor Reyes, like most ordinary GM’s would. Just you wait.
Whoa, Correra to Giants for $350 million over 13 years.
I’d say the opt out was a decent decision by him.
I’m surprised Correa didn’t hold out for a 14 or 15 year deal.
Twins sounding like the White Sox with an impressive-sounding offer that didn’t come close.
If only the White Sox had that Minneapolis-St. Paul market money.
A rare instance where I will be rooting for the Cubs. Better there than for Minnesota to get Swanson.
Honestly that’s a pretty good offer. Higher AAV too. And also higher than any offer the Sox will ever make in my lifetime lol.
What a horrible contract! What are the Giants going to do in 2033 when they don’t have the financial flexibility to sign a few expensive relievers, jump the market for a washed OF, or overpay to retain their long-term utilityman?
Spend more? Yeah right, you can’t do that.
Apropos of nothing in this post, I just want to confess here that after the White Sox signed Mike Clevinger and let Jose Abreu go, I felt it was time to end my frustrating relationship with the dysfunctional White Sox front office and sever my ties with the organization. To help my recovery, I reluctantly also cancelled my subscription to SoxMachine. I love SoxMachine, but I just had to break my abusive relationship with RH, KW and JR. However, after about a week away, I realize no matter what I have always enjoyed reading Jim Margalus and listening to Josh & Jim on the podcasts and despite everything, Gosh darn it, I just love this site and decided to come back. I have a young son whom I not sure I will encourage to become a White Sox fan — I would rather he be happy — but SoxMachine has the humor and wit to weather this storm, where else would I go? There will be new ownership someday. What else am I supposed to do, follow politics? The White Sox may be dysfunctional, but they are not $30 trillion in debt.
I understand both sentiments, but I have to admit I prefer the latter one. Thanks!
Making the mistake of cancelling your subscription to Sox Machine only means that you are Herrmann.
We have all suffered through years of Jerry at this point we might as well stick it out and see if the new owner is better.
I’d like to see our fanbase stick together and continue to call out Jerry’s bs operation.
I’m gonna outlive and out win him, I’ve got that bitter dog in me.
I sometimes feel like following the Sox is like watching the news. Just another depressing topic that I can do nothing about.
God willing the team will get sold in the next couple years. If Tony can leave, so can Jerry.
It’s not you, it’s me. Wait no, it’s definitely you.
Sadly, all it would take is a few inexpensive moves for the White Sox to lock up the Small Market división.
Sign Segura, Conforto and Galló to 1 year contracts like they did with Clevinger.
They can keep their prospects and some depth with a real chance for upside. No long term ramifications.
I mean, you say that now. We all know that if Hahn went out and signed those guys to incentive based deals and they all underperformed (because let’s face it, they aren’t low risk guys), everyone on here would be bitching about how Hahn cheaped out yet again and he should have backed up the truck for a top tier free agent. Short of spending $1B on free agents, I’m honestly not sure that there would be any offseason that please all Sox fans. We are a very dour bunch.
I would have settled for $350M for 13 years.
And when everyone around them gets injured and this team fails to make the playoffs, people will complain about putting all our eggs in one basket instead of signing depth for the injury prone guys. I’m not saying what is happening is the right path. There is just no answer to the problem short of a $500M payroll that would make fans universally happy and even then, a few injuries and the bitching begins again. No one had an issue with Moncada after the 2019 season but people are still bitching about 2021 as if it was a bad season because it fits the narrative they’ve built in their heads. Unfortunately, those people tend to be the loudest.
I just don’t understand the people that think Moncada hasn’t been good since 2019. All he needs to do is bounce back to one year ago, and he is a very good player worth his higher contract.
I will take 2021 Moncada any day. And if we get that in 2023, the Sox will be much improved.
No dingers and he’s so athletic that he makes things look effortless. What amazes me is people still think he’s not trying even after watching Burger playing third.
Burger didn’t play third. He just stood near third base when the opponent was at bat.
Basically a glove-first third baseman. Doesn’t steal bases, hit for average, get on base or hit home runs. If you are ok with that, you’ve got your man.
Jeimer Candelario had as good of a 2021 and as bad of a 2022 as Moncada and what happened to him? It’s fine when you are making $2.8 or even $6.8 mil but $17.8 mil is pretty pricey for just ok numbers
Look at what Bellinger just signed for having posted less than okay numbers last season. Even the hope of something better costs a pretty penny these days.
True though Bellinger had a little bit better 2019….and a ROY. But yeah that Harper contract is looking better by the day.
Moncada had a better 2021. It all evens out.
umm the little bit better was sarcasm. But ok I’ll drop it.
Well, if Moncada hit the market right now, no, I don’t think he would get $17+ million. However, I do think somebody would give him $10-14 million depending on demand, especially if they thought they could get him healthy.
Sure, especially because there’s no 3B on the market but it wouldn’t be by the Sox because they would not sign someone for that no matter how much they needed it, see Bellinger.
Stating the obvious, friend!
It would take a lot less than a $500M payroll to make many Sox fans a lot happier. How about they sign a free agent better than Grandal for once like a team that actually wants to win, like the Phillies have done 6 times now during the Sox window. Sox payroll was 20th or lower in 5 of the last 7 years. It’s not like Sox fans are a pessimistic and unhappy lot by nature. Sox fans are unhappy because this cheap ownership sucks balls. And teams like the Phillies show what is possible if you have an ownership that doesn’t.
I mean are Sox fans supposed to be content watching this whole window evaporate, after a decade of awful baseball and being in the bottom 5 in payroll from 2017 to 2019, when they won’t sign even one good bleeping player in 3 years during their peak opportunity? Fan discontent is completely justified, and makes a lot more sense than being in a state of optimism or approval. They have one of the cheapest and most incompetent ownerships in MLB, and a boring and inadequate roster that hasn’t improved since 2020. Positive narratives about this team generally don’t prove to be realistic or justified, and are all but completely blocked from coming to fruition by this shabby ownership.
+1 to that
The Sox intentionally tanked 4 years of baseball and traded every decent player other than Abreu (whom made suffer instead) to embark on their rebuild. All that planning and saving only to arrive in 2022 and be like “Ohhhh…those free agents are too expensive. So never mind about competing. Plan just didn’t work out.”
They look ridiculous. The Twins offer to Correa makes them look ridiculous. The whole situation is honestly laughable.
Hit it on the head, AB. I would add that my discontent is based not just on a lack of action and results, but also on the promises and boasts made by Hahn that conned (Hahned?) fans into thinking things were going to be different and that they would be ready to spend big when the time came.
Well, the time came, and not only have we not seen a nine-figure deal that was supposedly supposed to be totally in play, we haven’t even seen a $75 million deal, and the quality of players we’ve been saddled with has generally reflected that sad reality.
I agree with your reasons for discontent. Maybe I wouldn’t be completely satisfied if the only thing that the Sox had done different was to sign Springer. But my discontent would be a lot less than it is now.
Yeah the phony narratives really get under my skin. They lied to the whole fan base. Hahn just seems so fake and smug, along with the media shills. You can’t win a title without trying at all.
You can completely disapprove of almost everything that JR and Co. do and don’t do — while at the same time still being optimistic about the current team’s chances. I know I am.
Maybe that’s the nub of my unease with a lot of the pessimism among White Sox fans generally, it’s as if folks have to be pessimistic in order to show how pissed-off they are (or the fact that they are so pissed-off makes them more pessimistic than they would otherwise be).
If you’re optimistic about the team, that’s great. I don’t share it, and I don’t understand it because I think it’s founded in unrealistic hopes and expectations (much like the front office pretty much every season).
There it is again, I must be just like the FO to have optimism. If you are optimistic, you’re on the FO’s side.
Well, yes, if you’re optimistic about the team, then it does imply approval of the work the front office has done.
I think most people here are of the belief that, sure, being in the mix to win the AL Central and maybe even make some noise in the playoffs is a possibility with the talent on hand. But there’s a difference in believing it CAN happen and believing it WILL happen.
Good Lord! It doesn’t imply approval in any way shape or form. I’ve talked on and on about how inexcusable it was to have a team with 4 1B/DH types, how they can never again play Eloy/Sheets/Vaughn in the outfield, and they should just get some real fricking outfielders, how unbelievably bad the TLR hire was, and on and on and on.
There is no connection at all between approval/disapproval of FO moves and either (a) having a realistic view of the team’s chances — probably in the 85-86 range for most likely outcome; or (b) having optimism that a new manager/trainer can get much better play and healthier players than TLR did last year.
Wait, you’re optimistic about 85-86 wins as a likely outcome? I mean, yeah, I could be sold on that, but I wouldn’t be optimistic about it because that’s not a competitive team.
That’s my best attempt at an objective midpoint for their likely record, without any improvements to LF or 2B, based on player performance over the past few years alone (e.g., a midpoint between ZiPS and Steamer projections). It’s not my “optimistic” view.
My “optimistic” view is that the vast majority of the core of the 2021 team that had the 3rd best record in the American league is still here, that there’s no reason to think they’re not capable of replicating that kind of performance again, and there’s also reason to hope that the new manager/trainer will get better results/health than TLR and Co. did even in 2021.
I guess part of why I can’t get on board with the “this is what they did in 2021” argument is they lost their best hitter and best pitcher from that season, they got an absurd 30-game stretch out of a rookie who isn’t even here any longer, and they spent the last half of the season playing .500 ball that carried into 2022.
Yeah, definitely big losses. Still, in 2021 Jose only had the 3rd best wRC+ (Robert and Grandal much higher), and only the 5th best fWAR among position players (Robert, TA, Moncada, and Grandal higher).
But — also in 2021, Eloy had 0.3 fWAR in 55 games, Vaughn had -0.3 fWAR in 125 games, and Robert only played in 68 games (still generating 3.3 fWAR).
Vaughn at 1B instead of LF, now in his 3rd season, is probably worth 2.5 fWAR or so more than his 2021 performance, Eloy at only DH could well be 3+ fWAR better, and if Robert played the same way but twice as many games, he’d add 3.3 fWAR.
In 2021 Abreu had more PAs than Robert and Grandal combined. It’s not just about who’s performing, it’s about who’s there if they can’t be. Abreu was reliable and played almost every game; Grandal and Robert begat way more PAs than we ever wanted to see out of Zack Collins and Billy Hamilton.
True — this team without at least decent health is very unlikely to do much of anything. Super thin.
Maybe Grifol can get them to play harder/better, but if I could choose only one of the two good things happening from a new manager/trainers, I’d choose to have them just be healthy even if they don’t perform harder/better than they generally have.
But therein lies a major source of the pessimism: there’s zero depth in this organization. Their AAA team was such a shambles last season that they were bullpenning half their games, and this season isn’t looking to get much better in that regard. They still don’t have much in the way of impact players on their depth chart outside of Colas unless some guys on the fringe take a big step forward, and Colas isn’t even depth if he’s their opening day right fielder!
There was supposed to be waves of talent to hedge against guys not being available, and the best they could muster was Lenyn Sosa and Romy Gonzalez.
Yeah, agree with all of that. If they add an MLB-starter-level LF and 2B, plus a half-passable 4th OF, it gets much better I think (even Sheets can play some OF if really necessary), and at 2B they’d have not just Sosa/Rodriguez (or Leury, who they should cut).
But you’re absolutely right, they’re thin.
They’re two players short in their opening day lineup as it stands, so I don’t even want to think about their depth chart right now. I’m not particularly confident in Sean Burke or Yolbert Sanchez coming in and making an impact. I am high on Popeye, but I think he’s two years away from contributing meaningfully.
I’ve made this comparison before: the Sox rebuild is turning out to be like the Pirates a decade ago. Lengthy rebuild that peaked with two payoff wins over 3 seasons before tearing it down again.
Winning is THE issue. Not payroll.
If the Sox could win on Cleveland’s payroll, they’d be saluted for being good and efficient at their jobs. They are neither of those things.
I understand getting annoyed with the complaints, but you’re misrepresenting WHY they happen.
They have a bunch of underperforming/sell low MLB players and the 26th or so rated farm system. They’re supposed to be competing for championships and promised payroll wouldn’t be an issue.
The only reasonable solution was to spend money to fill their various roster holes. They have lied and failed and earned the complaints, even if you’re sick of hearing them.
Okay, but this is the exact kind of comment I’m complaining about. Moncada is one year removed from a 4 fWAR season. Eloy had a 144 wRC+ in his limited time. Robert’s injuries were woefully mismanged as reported on ad nauseum on this site. Vaughn still hit well while being forced to “play” in the OF. Lynn missed the start of the year and then took his ST during the season but finished strong. I’m not saying every player on our team will hit their 90th percentile outcomes but you don’t have to squint to see good players on this roster but a lot of the conversation begins with the assumption that every player is toast.
Now that you mention it, sometimes the fan base does seem dour. I hadn’t noticed till you brought it up.
We’ve watched a talented roster get worse instead of better since 2020 because ownership has done almost nothing for 3 straight winters, and basically wasted their whole window. That tends to produce dourness.
No fan base makes their fans 100% happy, to be sure. I think we’re all allowed some bitterness after letting the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to bid on Machado or Harper without the big money teams involved pass us by. Instead of landing one of those guys, we got the typical platitudes about how “akshully, our offer was better!” and how all the money we hoarded during the lean rebuild years “would be spent.”
Our ability to draft and develop is just pitiful. Nearly every quality player on the current roster was acquired as (or close to) an MLB-ready player. It’s nice that we’ve seen some some upside showing from guys like Montgomery, Sosa, Rodriguez and Ramos; but I can’t ignore the rapidly-declining value of highly-drafted prospects like Thompson, Dalquist, Kelley, and Kath (among others). Depending on how you rate Sean Burke or the kids we just drafted, our top pitching prospect seems to still be the largely-untested Norge Vera. If you want to compete without playing in the big boy contract pool, you have to be excellent at this phase of the org. And we are simply not close to that level.
I don’t think it’s unreasonably dour to note that we are in our supposed peak contention window after sitting through the rebuild and:
We all know people who are unreasonably dour about really good teams – surely there are miserable Yankees and Astros fans who always want their teams to do more in the offseason. But I don’t accept the implication that I (and many others) are just a bunch of unreasonable grumps who, I guess, should offer Jerry and the Gang our full faith and support.
First, a lot of what you say here can be true and the White Sox can have an unreasonably dour fanbase.
There’s little doubt that the FO bungled this. But they bungled it because they were so close to putting it all together—which in some ways makes it all the more frustrating. I mean, seriously: don’t hire TLR, sign Zach Wheeler, then don’t have a trash offseason last year (sign like Sterling Marte instead of Graveman and Kelly, for example). In that alternate universe, this team is in good shape right now, probably. They didn’t, obviously, but my point is that they haven’t been completely hopeless at building this team.
Their ability to draft or develop isn’t as bad as you suggest. Cease and Eloy both played in A ball with the White Sox. TA, Rodón, and Sale are recent examples of first-round picks that turned into All Stars. They’ve also had success with late picks (e.g., Engel, Mendick, relief pitchers). It seems worse than it actually is because the 2016 & 2017 drafts were disasters and, for this rebuild, those were probably the most important.
I agree with the sentiment that being so close makes this even more frustrating. That feeling is even worse now because the real contenders are willing to invest more to double-down on their championship chances while the White Sox wait for the post-holiday markdowns.
I’d still argue that our overall drafting and development is below average. It’s fair to note that TA, Eloy and Cease did need some time to develop – I’ll give them that. To your point – they’re not completely hopeless. And Robert did work through the minors, though his tools weren’t in question – it was largely about staying healthy (as it is with him to this day).
Sale and Rodón did live up to their draft status, but neither of them required much in the way of minor league development. Sale’s talent was massive, but he fell in the 1st round due to injury concerns based on his delivery. His arm didn’t explode for many years, resulting in a fantastic career. Rodón was a consensus top 3 talent and the Sox had the 3rd pick – it was the obvious pick. There’s nothing wrong with nailing these picks, but picking anyone other than Rodón would’ve been strange at that spot.
They do have a knack for finding utility infielders and relievers in mid and late rounds, but missing on impact picks in the top three rounds counts for far more. Madrigal had no power, Burger and Collins weren’t great bets to stay at their original positions, and we’re all too familiar with the sluggish progress from recent highly-drafted prep pitchers.
Fair enough. I don’t know enough about the rest of the league to know precisely where the Sox stack up. Below average seems plausible enough—but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were slightly above average, either. I think we (fans) have a tendency to compare our team with the elite. And fine – we should expect it! But I’m happy to admit the Sox are not as good as the Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, or Rays (and surely a few others) at drafting and developing. But that’s a long way away from “pitiful.”
I do agree, like I noted above, that 2016-2017 were disaster drafts. And they were simply critical. 2018 wasn’t bad, though. Madrigal hasn’t turned out, but they’ve flipped several players from that draft (including Madrigal, Pilkington, Heuer, Steele Walker etc.) and nabbed some contributors later in the draft (Sousa, Davis Martin, Romy).
So, again, I think the criticism comes down to two terrible drafts that came at the time the Sox needed them most.
I feel like I’ve made my stance pretty clear over the past few months. There are legitimate criticisms levied at this organization because we are not where we want to be and those are fair. But I’ll address your points:
Here’s where my problem is though. We are all in agreement on the big stuff. But when people bitch about our coaching hires after playing 6 degrees of Kenny Williams, it leads me to believe that it doesn’t matter what the front office does at this point, there is no “right path”. There is no “sure thing” offseason that people will actually be excited about. We can sign Conforto and Gallo and Segura, cruise to a division title, and people will still go “But Machado/Harper”.
#5 would certainly run afoul of the CBA. But if no other organization is willing to collude with Jerry, I suppose he can always find that fix internally…
“We sign a big name and then we bitch about depth.”
I’m sure you’re right but I would really love for us to have the opportunity, just once, to test that theory.
Hear here!
You’ll find no disagreement here.
I agree with you regarding people who hate anything this FO does, but I find that position somewhat understandable from a different angle. We know we’re dealing with an owner who doesn’t want to spend and views players as his opponent in negotiations. An owner who is, as you note, loyal to a fault – preferring to keep the same brain trust in power for years despite many years of mediocrity. An owner who doesn’t seem to have the passion to do what it takes to actually win – preferring to trot out a partially finished rebuild and just hope to catch lightning in a bottle. An owner who brings his sleepy, liver-spotted old friend in to manage a supposedly contending team to right a decades-old wrong.
It’s an odd thing – we all want the Sox to win, but any success would reward (or vindicate?) an owner who shows very little appetite for actually competing. Perhaps that’s the root of it for some.
We had the 7th (?) highest payroll last year at nearly 200M. Jerry has opened up the pocketbooks a bit the past few years but that money has been used in weird and not optimal ways. There have also been 100M+ contracts offered even if they weren’t ultimately accepted for a variety of reasons so it’s not like he’s adamantly opposed to it. We are all in agreement that there are certain players that could have been on this team if we had just cowboy’d up and made the right offer. The front office has very real flaws but when the comment section becomes a meme war about how Grifol was only hired because Getz knew him or he won’t be successful because “lol Royals” it crowds out any actual discussion about merits/strengths/habits for the few moves that have actually been made this offseason.
I remain optimistic about Grifol, but I can’t blame people for making the “lol Royals” observation. I believe he’ll be far better than TLR (he’d almost have to be) but that’s just not the org that one usually expects to poach top talent from….
I’d also add that saying we’ve legitimately made $100MM offers is factually correct, but throwing out a “big money” offer that is structured in a manner undesirable to the player or is still well below their perceived market value is a key distinction.
Any team can pull a metaphorical seat to the table. Reinsdorf’s approach feels like going to an auction and saying “I’ll give you roughly what you want for that thing (probably a little less)…but I get to pay it back over several more years and with more stipulations than those other customers who are willing to go higher and pay upfront with cash.” You can still tell your friends and family that you tried and offered the same amount of money (or possibly more if all of the precise conditions are met!), but it’s clear you weren’t ever going to buy it. But hey – at least you had the seat at the table….
Not a great analogy, but you get my point – there are serious offers and then there are serious offers.
There’s REALLY not much risk with those 3 guys.
A. Segura is well established, consistent and not-injury prone.
B. Conforto is healthy now and even if he shows rust he’s a vast improvement over what the Sox had last year in RF.
C. Gallo is not injury prone and a very good defensive player who would improve the Sox defense at both OF corners as well as 1B. How he will hit no one knows but he can take a walk better than almost everyone on the Sox. Not much risk here. He won’t be expensive.
This is the best that the Sox can do under the circumstances. You think Rick Hahn trading away Major league pieces will be better?
I don’t think there’s “risk” with Segura and Gallo in that they could fail miserably. I think they fall under the same umbrella as Pollock where they don’t meet expectations so it’s a failure.
I’m not ready to put much faith in Conforto given he’s only played in 170 games since the start of the 2020 season. Baseball really isn’t known for incentive heavy contracts and being a Boras client, he’s going to be looking for a contract I’m not comfortable giving him. Maybe he goes right back to being a very good outfielder but I’m guessing the price is wrong.
Honestly, I don’t really think we would complain if anybody signed one of those guys and they stunk. Nobody hated the Encarnacion signing at the time, and nobody really poo-pooed it in hindsight. The only criticism was that they kept playing him despite the clear evidence he was a spent force.
No one cared back then because we were still in the “rebuilding” phase. But adding him to a roster intent on a deep playoff run? That’s an entirely different situation and the comments surrounding it would reflect that, imo.
They signed EE to make a run at the division; they were not rebuilding.
“Lock up the division” is too strong. If Robert, Eloy, Vaughn, Giolito, Grandal, and Moncada run back their performances from last year, adding Segura, Conforto, and Gallo doesn’t get the Sox near 90 wins. The success of the 2023 season hinges on the extent to which that crew can bounce back from their injuries/being bad.
Agreed. It really hinges on those 6 you mentioned being significantly better than 2022. If not, they are a 75-win team. If those guys play up to their capabiliities, then they are an 85-88 win team. Then adding a few good pieces pushes them into the 90+ win category. But it all starts with last year’s underachievers. If they’re not good, even adding Judge wouldn’t make a difference.
I think they could get to 90 wins only through reasonable health from those guys (plus TA, I missed him earlier). I mean, 2022 was a disaster in almost every way and they still won 81 games. I know they’re losing some key contributors. But, man, I’m not sure we’ve yet appreciated how important TLR –> Grifol is. It’s usually folly to place a team’s struggle on a manager. But the 2022 White Sox has to be a counter-example. I find it difficult to believe the Sox win less than 86 games if they fired TLR in May and hired Cairo.
All that to say: I’m not sure they need a few good pieces to win 90 games. But good pieces would certainly help. And they certainly aren’t a bone fide WS contender without some additions.
You might be right- I had them above at 85-88 wins with no additions and just good health from their key guys, so 90 certainly is possible. Losing Jose and Cueto’s production from last year certainly hurts, and is probably offset by the change from LaRussa to Grifol.
I still think Hendriks and maybe Giolito go to the Dodgers- that’s going to be Hahn’s big move. He can get at least 2 of the Dodgers MLB-ready studs in a deal like that and save $25M in payroll. My OPP had them trading Giolito and using the savings from his contract and Abreu’s to sign Rodon. Jerry could still easily add Rodon if he traded Gioltio and Hendriks, but that is certainly not even on his radar. He’ll just trade those two and pocket the $25M.
I traded both of those guys in my OPP, but it’s getting more and more difficult to see the benefit of it. They’d need to get cheap, near-MLB ready players in return (which I’m not sure they’d get) then find a better way to allocate the ~$24m (which I’m not sure they could do). If they could have traded those guys to sign Nimmo, then sure. I’m not sure I’d want them to dump those salaries to sign Benintendi, for example. There’s probably a way to make it work, if you get the right return. But the extra $24m is getting less important every day.
As I’ve said several times before, for Giolito and Hendriks, they could get at least 2 of the Dodgers MLB-ready prospects- and they have several. If Jansen got 2/$32M, then Hendricks is a steal at 2/$30. And Giolito at $10-11M, even for one year, is a bargain. They just need to do something this winter to shake things up, even if it sets them back slightly. Adding two of Busch, Outman, Stone, or some of the other Dodger prospects would make the team much stronger in 1-2 years than keeping Giolito this year and Hendriks for 2 more. Because we know Giolito is walking after this year- no way Jerry ponies up for him. And in this healthy environment for relievers, getting two years of Hendriks is huge for a contender. I think they could get quite a haul for those two.
Picture should be clearer once Rodon signs. Whatever contender misses out on Rodon would surely see 1 year of Giolito as preferable to giving Eovaldi a 3+ year deal.
Since I like doing this kind of thing, I wanted to compare ZiPS projections to “top capability” of 6 core players. I swapped out Giolito for TA. The ZiPS are all from the position projection in the baseball diamond on the ZiPS projections page, except for Eloy, since he was paired with multiple other players in the position diagram (I just used his individual projection instead).
Robert
ZiPS: 3.7 fWAR from CF
Top capability =: 6.8 fWAR (2021 rate over 140 games)
Eloy
ZiPS: 1.2 fWAR from Eloy personally
Top capability: 3.7 fWAR (approx. 2022 second-half rate over 140 games)
Vaughn
ZiPS: 2.2 fWAR from 1B
Top capability: Not sure, I’ll just leave it as 2.2 fWAR
TA
ZiPS: 2.6 fWAR from SS
Top capability: 6.9 fWAR (2020 rate over 140 games)
Grandal/Zavala
ZiPS: 2.4 fWAR from C
Top capability: 5.3 fWAR (Grandal’s 2019-2021 rate over 93 games (3.4), plus Zavala’s 2022 rate over 61 games (1.9))
Moncada
ZiPS: 2.2 fWAR
Top capability: 5.8 fWAR (2019 rate over 140 games)
Totals
ZiPS: 14.3 fWAR (83-84 win team)
Top capability: 30.7 fWAR (99-100 win team)
I didn’t totally max everyone out. I left Vaughn since I don’t really know what his “top capability” is right now, and I didn’t model Grandal on his stats from 5-6 years ago.
Nevertheless, still huge talent potential on this team if healthy and truly playing at their best. Getting something like the above from the 6 spots combined (while not likely) would make them a projected 99-100 win team even with no upgrades in LF or at 2B.
Oh no doubt baby!! But why be a piker, lets go down for 101 wins all day all the way!
Read the above thread that this is in response to.
Although Roke reconsidered and eventually estimated more wins, he first estimated: “If those guys play up to their capabiliities, then they are an 85-88 win team.”
I swapped out TA for Giolito, but I wanted to show not what a likely record for the Sox is in 2023 (that’s elsewhere in multiple places on this page), but just how talented the core of this team still is (playing up to their capabilities).
If you’re thinking what you can realistically hope for in 2023 (if you want to be optimistic), then it helps a lot to figure out just how many wins the Sox would have if their 6 core players truly played up to potential (though really, I don’t have Vaughn any higher than ZiPS, so it’s more like 4-5 players maxed out).
What part of “would make them a projected 99-100 win team even with no upgrades in LF or at 2B.” did I miss?
You missed the entire part leading up to that. You didn’t even quote a complete sentence. Something is obviously missing there.
What would make them projected for 99-100 wins? Answer is their core players playing up to their (very high) capabilities. That’s it.
If you think it’s therefore what I’d bet will happen in 2023, then I think you’re still missing it.
I was replying to a very specific part of your post and to be fair to you I quoted that specific part. If want me to read the entire post you will need to keep it under 2500 words.
Yeah, then maybe don’t respond to posts you don’t want to read. Not a useful use of either of our time.
Hey I was just having fun with someone who got out in front of his skis a little too far, no harm meant.
No offense taken all — just saying a useful conversation is pretty unlikely if it’s about some unknown portion of a statement rather than the whole thing.
The 90th percentile outcome for this team is probably in the mid-low 90s for wins.
Based on prior performance/injuries alone? That sounds about right to me. Most of my hope/optimism is that they’ll be healthy and perform at least as well as average over the last 3-4 years (for guys that have been around that long) and continue to make normal young player improvements (for those that haven’t been around long).
Well, part of the problem is they’d need everybody else to perform at or below their median expectations as well. If the Twins and Indians overperform their projections as well, it could get ugly.
Maybe, but I think I’ve said that I expect the Sox to be the betting-odds favorite in the division when the season starts. We obviously have to wait months to know if that’s true, but I’m sticking by it.
Keep in mind that teams will be playing a balanced schedule next year. They won’t be playing Kansas City and Detroit as much.
Good, they went 9-10 against the Royals, were under .500 against the AL Central, and had a better record against opponents outside of the AL Central in 2022.
They were also 0-3 against the Diamondbacks. It’s kinda weird how they seemed averse to punching down.
They were. Not beating the teams they should have was a big problem last year. Though, I suppose “should” is doing a lot of work for an 81-81 team.
More than half my Sox life has been watching them not beating the teams they should have. And yes, it’s been a big problem.
Thank god Cy Chen has retired.
Cy Mays, god that little fucker had our number. On 2 teams!
Sox open with 4 on the road against the Astros in Houston. April will be very tough month actually… Astros, Phillies, Jays, O’s, Rays (two series), Giants. But as for the overall schedule, yeah it is a bit different.
Looks like 13 instead of 19 vs the other central teams (52), 3 against the 15 NL teams for 46 total (extra game from playing Cubs 4 times), and then playing the Astros, A’s, Rays, and Angels 7 games each (28), the other 6 non-central AL teams 6 games each (36). 52+46+28+36 = 162. I think I got all that right.
So 24 games from the AL central transferred to NL teams, which will undoubtedly be tougher. Goes from nearly 1/2 their schedule being vs the AL Central to more like 1/3. They still have 26 against the Tigers and Royals, but the schedule should help bring down some of the inflating effects of being in a weak division (weakest strength of schedule in MLB in 2021) – both on their record, and player stats.
I’m usually of the mindset that managers don’t matter, but TLR was definitely an exception. Vaughn dWar was -2.6 last year. I just can’t take seriously a manager/team trotting out players in that situation. Just playing people in the positions they belong would’ve netted a couple wins. Of course, Hahn will actually have to sign an outfielder for Grifol to play one.
I am generally extremely dour but here is an optimistic and not entirely unrealistic scenario for the Sox:
That’s about 12 wins better than 2022 even with Abreu, Cueto, and Andrus’ departure, and not accounting for having a competent manager. Add Conforto and Segura and you have a genuinely good team.
At this point, I think expecting everybody to be healthy and effective rises to the level of, “unrealistic scenario.”
Right – there are decent statistical models of what to expect like zips that are reasonable…unlike the “everybody will stay healthy and perform at their career best level” model.
Talking about keeping 6-7 players healthy (enough to play, say, 140 games in most cases) is not unreasonable, particularly given new trainers/manager. It might not happen, but it’s perfectly within the realm of reason.
And Vanillablue did not give you the “career best” model … mine above was much closer to that, but even there I didn’t do it for Grandal (too unrealistic) and didn’t give Vaughn any more projection than ZiPS b/c I had nothing to base his “top capability” on. If you get to 99-100 wins with only that, you can lop off 6-8 wins just for regression from “top capability,” but add in some reasonable upgrades in LF and at 2B, and you have a 93-96 win team.
This is flat out not unreasonable in any way shape or form, particularly since ZiPS is the most pessimistic of the models out there, while Steamer gives them 88-89 wins as is.
Times playing 140+ games (52+ in 2020):
Yasmani Grandal: 2 (last in 2019)
Tim Anderson: 2 (last in 2018)
Yoan Moncada: 3 (2019-2021)
Luis Robert: 1 (56 games in 2020)
Eloy Jimenez: 1 (55 games in 2020)
Andrew Vaughn: 0
Gavin Sheets: 0
Excepting Oscar Colas (who hasn’t even played 140 games in the minors), I don’t know why anybody would expect ANY of the position players who matters (save maybe Moncada) to play 140 games or more, much less most or all of them.
My best-case scenario had Grandal playing 93, which he has consistently done or been on pace for the last 3 years. Sheets also not part of the best-case 99-100 win scenario.
For the others, you seem to think it’s totally unreasonable to hope that a new manager/trainer can figure out why everyone keeps getting injured all the time. It’s either that they all happen to be injury prone, or there’s been something wrong with how they’re trained — so a new competent trainer stands to make folks healthier.
I am so very, very unconvinced by your “140 wins yes or no” chart. Vaughn played 2 seasons. In those seasons he played 127 and 134 games. You want me to think he can’t realistically play 140 games? I’m not convinced.
Similarly for Anderson, 123 games in 2 of the last 4 years, and in the COVID-shortened year, he played 49 of the 60 regular season games. Expand that to a 162 game season, and it’s 132. Only last year was very far from 140.
It’s all really not that much of a stretch to hope that a new trainer could get this bunch of guys (who seem to have been hindered by poor training/management in the past) to play 140 games, or near that number, in which case the projected wins are near right.
Can a new trainer make a difference? Sure, I guess so. Heck, I hope so! Am I expecting guys like Jimenez and Robert who have been perpetually hurt, or a guy like Anderson who has dealt with one nagging injury or another for several years now, to suddenly be healthy and awesome? Maybe one, but probably not all. I wouldn’t be banking on it, that’s for sure.
And you said six or seven guys playing 140 games. Sure, Sheets shouldn’t be a big part of that, but if I don’t include him, then who are we talking about? Romy Gonzalez? Leury Garcia? Lenyn Sosa?
Vaughn, however, should manage 140 games just not having to run around the outfield in ways he is not athletically qualified to do. I think his bat will also see big gains switching to first base. I don’t, however, think that will be enough to make them a serious contender.
My projected best case scenario only had 6 — though that counts Grandal and Zavala replicating last year’s number of games played for each, so really 5.
I definitely agree with you that Robert and Eloy are the most worrisome as just guys who are always injured. For Eloy, it’s why I keep demanding that they just never play him in the field again. DH only. Hopefully that helps a good amount. For Robert, I don’t know, just hopeful.
There are some reasons to raise expectations a tad. LaRussa isn’t returning, so hopefully some of the dead-ass play will go away and the literal plan is not to have guys play at half effort. Eloy at DH and Vaughn at 1B will hopefully result in healthier and more effective bats in the lineup. Beyond that, there’s not a whole lot to hope for other than maybe some rebounds on the pitching staff.
Don’t forget all the “get away day” lineups that TLR continued to use. I’m all for rest days if guys need it but I hope to god that Grifol doesn’t use his entire bench in a game when there’s no reason to.
Of that group of seven, only Moncada and Vaughn are projected by FanGraphs to manage over 500 PAs in 2023. Colas also projects over 500, but it’s possible that projection includes minor league games (which would honestly be preferable).
I assume you’re using ZiPS? A few notes about the ZiPS projections:
ZiPS has always disliked Anderson because he’s so BABIP dependent.
Replying to your 140+ games post. Exactly. The Sox are left needing a whole bunch of things which are not high probability to go right – all at the same time. Good health and great production from everybody or almost everybody is “unrealistic scenario”, as you put it.
And the best we can hope for is for them to add a free agent or two whose last good season was 2 or 3 years ago, whose success can’t be called high probability either, and count on them to have an optimal year as well. This team was .500 for the past season and a half, it was no accident. Nor will this team falling short of positive expectations in 2023 be, especially after a brutal start to their schedule. They look like a great bet to be at least a few games under .500 at the end of April, one would think. Almost 2/3 of their April games will be vs playoff teams.
I could see them weathering the April storm if everybody comes out of the gate firing on all cylinders, but as the season grinds on, they tend to get exposed even by shitty teams.
Your assessment on free agents for them is why I went after Bellinger in my offseason plan: so much of 2023 relies on health and returns to peak form, and Bellinger just doubles down on the existing formula. They don’t need average-ish veteran ballast because adding that in 2022 with Cueto and Andrus paid off better than we could ever have imagined and it only made them mediocre instead of downright awful. What they need is somebody with actual star potential who can carry them for stretches if everything is going right, however unlikely that may be.
It’s important to remember that there’s an enormous sliding scale here and “being healthy” is relative. For example, let’s spin out a scenario for each player:
That’s my “expectation” for each player. All are relatively modest, I would think, and probably at or below a 50% outcome—so I’d expect some not to live up to this expectation, but some to exceed it. And there are still a lot of injuries built into these expectations, as you see.
Even taking the low side of the projected additions here, that’s +9 WAR for these players. Now let’s be pessimistic and say none of them exceed these expectations and only 3 of them are met: we’re still talking about 4-5 WAR (or more) added to what these guys did last year. That’s what makes 2022 so wild: all of these guys basically hit their like 5% projections.
A good bit of the dourness is because the chance of them adding Conforto and Segura is less than the rest of your prediction. A lot less.
Sox clearly holding onto their cash to make a bold splash. I’m thinking a big fat Leury extension.
After bilking the team for $15 million, a “big, fat Leury” may very well be what’s left to extend.
Leury “The Whale” Garcia, just imagine Brendan Fraser with a gote.
Lotta debate in the comments about this team that hasn’t changed really in the past two months bc they haven’t actually done anything recently. Make some moves, you bums! Give us more to kvetch and/or wishcast about!