I will not bore you with the numerous iterations of this OPP that I concocted and literally lost sleep over, that would be no fun for anyone. Instead, I will just bore you with the two I finally landed on. I had to create two because of one specific individual that will dictate the White Sox offseason – Lucas Giolito. To sign him to an extension or not to sign him to an extension, that is the question. In this iteration – dubbed 105.7 WKKB Smooth Jazz Faux Hahn– I, Faux Hahn, let Giolito ride out another year in arbitration. This frees up capital to make a big free agent splash. A player that is very familiar with Chicago and has some serious positional flexibility.
Much of the rest of the roster machinations are similar to my other OPP Hollywood Faux Hahn, so please feel free to skim.
- Lucas Giolito: $7.9M
- Tender – Lets see if the new CBA hurts or helps our chances of extended Gio next offseason.
- Reynaldo López; $2.8M
- Tender – There are worse ways to spend $3 mil of Jerry’s money than on a swing man 6th starter. Maybe Katz can unlock something here with a second full offseason (what lockout?).
- Evan Marshall: $2.3M
- Non tender/Resign – 2 year $2.5 mil deal. Year 1 is rehab and only 550k will be accounted for in 2022.
- Adam Engel: $2.2M
- Tender – Quite possibly the perfect 4th outfielder, if he can only stay healthy.
- Brian Goodwin: $1.7M
- Non tender – Maybe he needs to sign another minor league offer and he accepts his Charlotte designation at the end of spring training.
- Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M
- Non tender/Resign – 2 year $1.80 mil deal. He gets some guaranteed livelihood and we save money on sleeves for his jersey – big win all around. TLR can probably utilize him better than Ricky did and there has never been a season where you don’t need at least 12 arm barn arms. This post was not tested on animals.
- Jace Fry: $1M
- Non tender– This came down to Fry vs Tepera and Tepera wins out.
- Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout)
- Pick up – Too hard to part with Nicky Two Strikes and not get something out of it.
- César Hernández: $6M
- Decline – there are better options in free agency and the trade market (wink), even beyond Semien.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021)
- Let Go – I don’t want to do it, but I could not work in a 6 million dollar contract into either offseason plan. He is a great piece to have on a world series contending roster, and I think fans who have not appreciated Garcia will feel his absence.
- Carlos Rodón ($3M)
- Let Go – Another gut punch. But with Keuchel making the money that he is, there is no flexibility in the budget for another $15 million for Rodon, especially when we do not know that he can even pitch 150 innings.
- Billy Hamilton ($1M)
- Let Go – Billy the Hitter, we hardly knew ye
- Ryan Tepera ($950K)
- Retain – 3 year $4.2 million (year 1 – $1.1, $1.4, $1.7) A great complement to Bummer in front of Hendriks. He stepped up when we needed him and Faux Hahn does not forget.
No. 1: Kris Bryant (6 year, $145 million) The Cubs waster the extra year of control they coveted and the Sox will swoop in and bring him back to Chicago from his brief Bay Area sojourn. Bryant will be penciled in as the starting RF, but last year he played 93 games in the outfield (with time in all three positions), 55 games at third, 12 games at first, and 1 game at short. You don’t need a Leury when you have Bryant being capable of filling in anywhere on the roster that may be needed. This signing would put the rest of the AL on notice. Contract break down would include a $21 mil 2022 season with some moderate salary escalations thereafter – AAV is $24.17 mil.
No. 2: Manny Pina (2 year, $3.5 million). We need a proven major league backstop behind Grandal that won’t break the bank and that man is Manny Pina. 1.5 million in year 1 and 2 million in year 2.
No. 1: Three Way Trade Alert –
White Sox receive Jazz Chisholm, Angel Rondon.
Cardinals receive Craig Kimbrel, Cash Considerations
Marlins receive Jake Burger, Yoelqui Cespedes, Jared Kelley, Alec Burleson
Jazz Chisholm slots in at second for the foreseeable future for the White Sox as he is not a free agent until 2027. This is a huge trade dealing from a limited prospect cupboard, but the time to win is now. Angel Rondon is starter depth that is sorely needed, but he his still very much a work in progress. Burger looked good in his cup of coffee and Cespedes is still just a ball of potential. Kelley may be missed in 2024 but hopefully 2 more playoff seasons will be had between now and then and Jerry is more liberal with the pocket book by then to sign someone for the rotation. The Cardinals get a lock down closer from the White Sox and Cash Considerations from the Marlins. The NL Central is there to be had and the Cardinals must realize all the blown saves early on torpedoed there 2021 NL Championship aspirations. The Marlins continue the seemingly perpetual rebuild with 4 young players that will be coming in waves over the next few years, with Burger getting a call for everyday playing time in 2022.
Let’s hit the roster first:
SS – Anderson
CF – Robert
1B – Abreu
RF – Bryant
3B – Moncada
LF – Jimenez
C – Grandal
DH – Sheets
2B – Chisholm
The final payroll for Hollywood Faux Hahn comes to $175,800,000, again pushing Jim’s $5 million cushion – sorry Jerry!
If Keuchel can bounce back and be closer to his 2020 season, all the better. I do not think this is outside the realm of possibility. If memory serves, Dallas held out part of 2019 looking for a deal to his liking and followed that up with a pandemic shortened 2020. He may have had legitimate arm fatigue this year that contributed to the decline. As I am late getting this out, we already know that he has another gold glove on the shelf too, so he does bring something to the table besides eating innings. This plan also relies on Kopech seamlessly transitioning to the rotation. We will get to see Steiver, Lopez, Rondon etc try out for the extra starts that come about in a 162 game season. The bullpen looks solid for now, but everyone knows that bullpens are nebulous, and it would be wise for Jerry to maybe extend the budget a little more to bring in some more lockdown middle relief help.
This lineup makes me feel things. As much as I would love to sign Giolito, this is the way to go! (Please, please, please Real Hahn! Please!) Engel as the main back up outfielder with Sheets and Vaughn splitting time at DH and spelling Eloy/KB in the corners and Abreu at first too. This team is deeper than we have seen in years. There are still break in case of emergency players in AAA with Collins, Mendick, Rutherford. Rommy edges out Danny for backup infield and maybe he can surprise and turn in at least one season of Leury type usefulness.
Kris Bryant and Jazz Chisholm!?!
Sign me up. Good plan.
I like the idea but I think the value is massively unbalanced. No team is trading a player like Chisholm away for that return and they certainly aren’t doing it if they have to chip in money as well. Maybe if the Sox are the ones sending cash and the Marlins get a prospect from the Cardinals as well? Even then, I still don’t see how Miami is even answering our calls after that proposal.
I did use the mlb trade analyzer to help. I do have the cardinals sending the marlins a prospect as well. The marlins get 3 good prospects and burger who slots right away into their 2022 roster. Who would get the trade done? I think there is still room to add from the white sox side.
I just don’t think this type of trade is realistic. The Marlins currently have a young, good, and cheap player at a key position. The entire concept of this trade is the Peter Griffin Speed Boat meme. There are no cost savings they are gaining and the players aren’t high profile enough to be worth the gamble. Chisholm was a top 50 prospect and you’re trading 4 guys outside the top 100 for him AND making the Marlins give up cash too? If I’m Miami and I was even considering this trade, Crochet has to be involved and I’d probably still want something else.
I get that point of view, and I know the sox farm system is mostly trash now, but I’m giving up 3 of our top 5. All of the have good to great potential. Those top 100 lists are so fluid – Collins was in the top 100 for MLB pipeline and fangraphs I’m separate years. The Marlins, unless they decide to go berserk this offseason and spend a bunch of money in free agency are going no where in the foreseeable future. Maybe the new CBA allows for draft pick trading in which case I would be all for sending picks to the marlins in addition to the three players we are giving up.
I also think that Kimbrel has more value than the trade analyzer website credits him with. I can see the cardinals giving up a better prospect to the marlins and not taking cash. I was staying true to the outside source I leaned on, probably to my detriment, but I find it hard to peg prospect value and keep on top of 30 farm systems.
Baseballtradevalues.com absolutely hates this trade because Jazz is more valuable than all the other pieces of the trade combined. You can’t expect to trade 3 Adam Engels for a good player but that’s what you seem to be proposing.
4 Adam Engels. Lol. I firmly believe cespedes is going to be much better than Engel ever has been too. But fair. Do you think there is a package that could get it done?
Cespedes being better than Engel relies on him having a similar revelation with fixing his swing, because he isn’t going to equal Engel’s value on defense or on the bases. He absolutely has to slug his way into MLB, but needs to overcome his swing and miss issues for that to happen.
I support signing Bryant, would be happy to see Tepera again, and I love Jazz.
But that’s not a realistic trade at that price, and I don’t see Tepera signing for so little.
Most projections I’ve seen for Tepera have been in the $4-6M range, which seems extremely reasonable to me.