Wait to weigh Jose Abreu’s contract extension, even if White Sox couldn’t
At various points over the season, Jose Abreu expressed his desire to stay with the White Sox in the most uncommon terms. He said he would sign himself to the White Sox if the Sox didn’t, and that he would play “for free.”
Yet while he ran the risk of overextending himself, he also put an onus on the White Sox by saying Jerry Reinsdorf promised that Abreu would never wear another jersey, a statement the White Sox didn’t try to deny.
Rick Hahn, caught in the middle, tried to defuse any tension by saying business schools weren’t going to teach this episode in negotiating classes.
But after Abreu signed a three-year, $50 million extension that few if any teams would have ponied up while the qualifying offer was attached to him, maybe scholars should explore whether his tactics have staying power, or whether a Kellogg degree just doesn’t mean what it used to.
While the White Sox’s landmark-for-them signing of Yasmani Grandal was largely lauded by the baseball community, the Abreu extension wasn’t received with nearly as much enthusiasm.
Ben Clemens of FanGraphs also picked up on this part in his analysis of the signing…
If you’re feeling uncharitable, you might impugn Chicago’s process. Abreu was an All Star, received MVP votes, and led the AL in RBI. In a previous era, no one would question this deal (assuming the money were era-adjusted). It’s tempting to say that the Sox are stuck in the past, the front office equivalent of a Hall of Fame ballot blank save for Jeter — that signing Grandal was a rare moment of timeliness from a broken clock.
… but then he also tried to give the hefty intangible argument equal time.
But to me, that’s a poor reading of this story. José Abreu and the White Sox aren’t a random player and team. Their relationship is complex, and painting this as solely a pay-for-production decision simply doesn’t capture the totality of what this deal means. From a pure numbers standpoint, the deal may not stand up — but that’s not what this contract is all about.
Longtime White Sox observers know what this contract is all about. It’s partially about production, partially about his mentorship of Cuban players and other clubhouse value, and partially a feature/bug of any Reinsdorf-owned team this decade.
It’s hard to criticize Abreu for earning too much considering he’s been one of the few reasons to watch the White Sox over his career. It’s also hard to ignore the times Reinsdorf’s loyalty has interfered with the club’s baseball decisions to the club’s detriment. Paul Konerko’s forced-fit swan song interfered with the Sox’s ability to give Marcus Semien playing time, and the unwillingness to fire Robin Ventura rendered the idea of stronger leadership during the Chris Sale era nothing more than a thought exercise.
In a vacuum, one could argue that retaining fan favorites should sometimes transcend math to serve the ideas of entertainment and the public trust. The problem is that the Sox haven’t been good enough to support these asides, which hamstrings their own capacity to entertain. I want to believe Abreu can lead the White Sox to “the promised land” as Grandal said, but for all the Paulie Plaudits, the Sox missed October baseball over Konerko’s last six seasons, and the four immediately after. Whatever Konerko offered outside his numbers, it had no material effect on outcomes, and I fear the faith without works could lead them into the same dead end here. I was far from the only one to say the White Sox needed to keep going after signing Grandal, and the Abreu extension doesn’t ostensibly help in that department.
The good news is that the Sox signed Abreu to this contract after landing Grandal, which is better than the other way around. Had Abreu signed with no other activity to date, it’d be easy to think the Sox were content with more of the same: The White Sox won’t look and act like a big-market team until they get good, but they can’t get good, so they don’t spend.
Breaking new ground with Grandal suggests the Sox might have an appetite for a bolder direction. The Abreu commitment casts some doubt over how much more they can add, but we still have months before we’ll know. Ultimately, I want the Sox to spend like they have the payroll space to carry an inefficient-but-acceptable contract like Abreu’s. Maybe they’re just doing it out of order? That’s a rhetorical question for the time being, but winning the bidding for somebody like Zack Wheeler would push it into requiring a discussion.
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I don’t know if the Konerko comparison is apropos – yet.
He got some MVP votes when he was 35 and still made the AS team with a nice OBP at age 36. Real regression set in at 38.
Abreu will be 35 when his current contract ends. If they sign him to another contract – and they very well might – then I think just about everyone will be griping.
Paulie’s one of 19 to hit a grand slam in a world series and we would love to see Abreu be the 20th
Seems like a lot of analysis for a deal that is basically 2 years/$32m when you factor in his original guarantee for 2020.
I for one feel the deal is fair. Being 33-35 during the contract means we shouldn’t expect a major falloff in production. I get the Vaughn thing, but as we have learned, prospects and their time tables are not guaranteed. Sure, we could have spent the money somewhere else, but again we’ve gone down the path of free agency with it blowing up in our face (LaRoche, Dunn, etc).
I’m happy for Jose and want him to be a part of the turnaround as he’s seen nothing but losing. I realize baseball is fundamentally a business, but us Sox fans should be happy that they took care of one of their own.
This is one of those deals I fully expected in term and dollars. His club house value, plus he produced. Plus I think having a Yas Grandal hitting in front of him will only make him more productive.
When and if Vaughn is ready to take over 1st base is still TBD, hopefully it is 2021 and by then Abreau could be ready for full time DH.
Now the next move is the one I want to see… dreaming of Cole or Strasburgh, but getting Wheeler is what I am expecting and before the Winter Meetings.
By the way, love the podcast even though work has me too busy to listen to all of them (I was listening at work), keep up the great work.
I presume the Sox won’t be pursuing a dh this year, unless it’s a one-year deal, or Vaughn becomes a major trade piece (Syndergaard?).
I wonder if this new Abreu contract gets done if Martinez were available and signed with the White Sox. Then you’d have the Konerko/Simeon playing-time scenario Jim mentioned.
I generally think it work’s best to have an experienced full time DH such as Martinez or Encarnacion. Had JD opted out, I would have expected that he’d have been Hahn’s top priority. Hahn did identify DH as hole to be filled. But, looking at the composition of this team (Abreu, Grandal, Collins, McCann with Vaughn in the wings), a revolving-door DH seems to make the most sense for this season with Jose transitioning to full-time DH as Vaughn progresses. Not having to sign a free-agent DH frees up money that can be used toward RF or SP free agent acquisitions.
” Yas Grandal hitting in front of him”
I’m guessing it’s still Yoan in front, and Yonder hitting Four.
No no no no no, please not that
Yonder???
Wasn’t Yoan batting 4th last season, with Abreau batting 3rd? I do remember some flip flopping, but Grandal’s OBP will a major upgrade near the top of the order.
But to be clear, I just meant having Grandal batting 1 or 2. 1 may be a stretch, but 2 seems like it might be a fit.
Yoan was in front of Abreu most of the season. Then Eloy got hurt and Renteria put McCann behind Abreu for a couple weeks – and both started to decline. Then Renteria finally put Yoan behind Abreu and Jose started hitting again. Jose definitely seems to need lineup protection, otherwise he has a tendency to try to put the offense on his back and expands his zone. What the Sox could really use is an OBP improvement over Leury Garcia butthere aren’t really any obvious candidates. Might be worth taking a one-year chance on Zobrist, he can play right field and usually has a good enough OBP to lead off.
Rumor has it (Morosi): Wheeler seems poised to accept the White Sox offer ($100MM/5yrs?) but he committed to giving the Mets’ a matching opportunity.
Wheeler 100/5 ok… however he doesn’t have the playoffs under his belt that Bumgarner does. 73/4 3 world series rings and Bruce Bochy connection if Renteria continues losing ways.
Too early to make judgements is right. Have to see what the final payroll tallies for 2020, 20201, & 2022 look like before you can say it hampered them in any way.
Even to outside observers, you’d have to notice how special a player Abreu is to the White Sox. They refused to trade him while they were tearing it all down, despite the fact they probably could have netted a decent return for a very good 1B with three years of control.
I have no problem with the White Sox wanting to treat players right. I just hope they develop a special connection to Giolito and Moncada while they are at it and make sure they stay in White Sox uniforms for the rest of their careers as well.
Isn’t that a huge part of what Abreu’s contract is about? What would the players who make-up the young core think regarding free agency if they were to watch the team “over-pay” to acquire free agents this off-season, while taking advantage of Abreu’s loyalty by signing him to a low-ball contract that “protects” the team against his possible decline? Good luck getting them to sign team friendly extensions.
Extension also helps trades.
Miami and Derek Jeter wanted Jose last year.
Not sure about that. If the money is out of line, the Sox would have to eat some cash in a trade for any b+ prospect return.
Zerbos, are you talking generally or regarding Abreu’s deal specifically. Any team interested in acquiring Abreu would accept this contract even if it’s a slight over-pay.
The next few months will tell us what we need to know about the Abreu contract. With the quotes from Rick and Kenny, and especially from Grandal, they have a definite plan going forward. Kenny said they had a plan 5 years ago. Let’s wait and see how it unfolds. If they add Wheeler and another lower SP, and then a couple of more bats, then Abreu being a part of this was all a part of their offseason plan. And for all those who have already penciled Vaughn into first base in 2021, he hasn’t advanced past A ball yet.
I have been extremely critical of this F/O over the last year. My criticism comes from the fact that they didn’t spend money when they should have. I am not going to criticize them for spending money, even if it is an overpay to a beloved Sox player. We all knew this was coming- it’s how Jerry operates. But none of us saw them signing Grandal this early and also being the supposed top bidder on Wheeler thus far. It seems to be a new attitude from the F/O, and I for one really appreciate it. The next few months will tell if my appreciation was unwarranted.
May I just add: This contract — or one very much like it — is justifiable on many levels beyond what the metrics suggest.
For one thing, the idea of “value” is a market concept, not something that is cast in stone and absolute for every individual. It is, in point, a matter of opinion. Player metrics are only one component of a more complex equation.
I fully understand the metrics behind the arguments against the term and money of this contract. I just think there’s a lot more to consider here, and we need only reflect on the way Carlton Fisk was treated at the end of his career. Perhaps the owner took an important lesson from that fiasco.
Fisk is an excellent point of reference. The reason Fisk, who once expressed a desire to be a Red Sox for life, became a White Sox involved Boston disrespecting him regarding a contract. Fisk remained disgruntled toward management the rest of his career, indeed, the rest of his life. I’d agree that JR learned from his own teams treatment of Fisk, and I respect that he wants to treat loyal players better than Fisk was treated.
It’s hardly a perfect analogy. They love Jose. They hated Fisk.
Boston love’d Fisk but disrespected him by sending him a low-ball contract after the deadline–Fisk walked. After that, Fisk remained suspicious of management. The White Sox did nothing to dispel that distrust. JR may well regret that.
Roke, I do remember you as optimistic last year regarding the possible signing of Machado last year (as was I). I also remember you becoming a pessimist after the WS attempt appeared to be botched, along with front office attempts to justify after the fact – they did look pretty dumb. If they sign Machado last year, do they sign Grandal? Along with Wheeler? It looks now like Grandal/Wheeler is a much better deal for the same money+- than Machado, and when their deals expire WS can sign younger talent, while SD will have an aging Machado.
I was all over them signing Machado or Harper. I still think they should have. Again, there’s no reason they can’t run a payroll of $170M plus. They still could have added Grandal, Wheeler and someone else and had a payroll around $150-$170M. If they dont spend in the top ten, then all our hopes are dashed.
I agree that is what they SHOULD do; but if they limit themselves to the $130 level, then I think they are better of with a Grandal/Wheeler combo; if you add Machado, they would be over $120 pending contract tender decisions.
I dont think they will, especially starting in 2021. I would even expect over $130M this year.
Don’t set yourself up for disappointment.
“The money will be spent.” KW and Hahn may not be the most astute baseball minds but they know how much it cost to build a championship caliber team even with a young, talented, pre-arb core. The pay-roll levels of the Astros, Cubs, and other teams who have modeled a rebuild are not unknown to them. The White Sox appear to have limits on the kind of contracts they’ll offer; but, I think they’re serious about “reaching the promised land” and are prepared to spend the money necessary to do that.
They were also the top bidder for Machado, until they weren’t. Being rumor’d as the top bidder for Wheeler means absolutely nothing at this point in time.
My issue with the Abreu signing is that they held all the leverage. They had him on a 1 year deal. I dont see any reason to extend him another 2/33 mil right now. Even if Abreu bounces back for an .850 OPS season, I’m not entirely sure he gets much more than 2/33 in free agency next year anyways. The risk reward ratio simply does not add up on this deal.
At the end of the day, if they go out there and get Wheeler + Castellanos, I’m not gonna worry about this Abreu overpay until 2022. If they dont follow through on more Free Agents, this will look worse.
I don’t think it “means absolutely nothing” in the context of a discussion of the White Sox intentions and priorities this off-season. The fact that Machado opted for the guaranteed money with San Diego doesn’t mean that the Sox didn’t demonstrate that they were willing to commit to $250MM over 8yrs. for a player they wanted. It seems clear that the Sox are pursuing Wheeler with an serious offer (~$100MM/5yrs.). If they’re out-bid on Wheeler, that level of spending should ensure they will add a quality stater.
The rare usage of “Faith without works is dead” in a sports article
And it’s only right that it comes from a guy named James.
I think Abreu carries enough in the tank to make this deal fair. Maybe a bit underwater in terms of WAR but not a disaster like Laroche’s one or Dunn’s one.
Abreu had a great August, and he ended up with a slugging % above .500, which is something that Dunn never gave us. Abreu’s %K has remain stable over the years. So his contact rate hasn’t declined which is something good.
He is still hitting for hard contact. He hit 180 hits in 2019 which is 9 hits shy of his best season. his 2B and HR production has been nothing but consistent. His “decline” has been nothing but gentle. Averaging 650 PAs Abreu has been reliable health wise. Fellow Cubans Roberts and Moncada might feel more “at home” with Abreu’s presence in the dugout…yes, part of the “intangible thing”.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Abreu has a surge in one of those 3 years in the same way Konerko had in 2010. the DH/1 market is really bad. Encarnacion might be cheaper, but is he better than Abreu at this juncture? Going to the free agency to fill Abreu’s shoes in the next 2 or 3 years might be a daunting task Hahn decided to avoid.
I think in the end, when everything is said and done, this is a good deal.
He was already signed to a QO for 17.8 million. The least they could have done was wait until after the rest of their offseason was done before deciding to hand out a contract extension to an aging first baseman….
Why would letting him play out the season under the QO have been “better”/ No matter how much Jose’s production declined, baring a career ending injury, he would be re-signed for 2021. This contract means less of his salary counts against the luxcap. I get that there’s concern that this “loyalty” approach signals a FO prone toward making bad baseball decisions. It’s a false concern. Abreu’s contract in no way hinders the team in filling other holes.
I agree completely. We have to take everyone’s word that they have a plan. That’s not going to change with this signing.
How is the luxury tax even a factor?
Ye of little faith. I honestly think JR want’s another championship before he shuffles off this mortal coil. I think Hahn has the green light to spend to a level where the luxcap becomes a concern.
I dont think they’ll approach the luxury cap, but I do think they’ll make it into at least an above average payroll by 2021-22.
Luxury tax is determined by adding all contract AAV.
Deferred funds and signing bonuses do not lessen potential tax penalties.
If the Sox approach the limit -ha, yeah right- Jose carries a $16.666mil addition to the payroll in ’20,’21 and ’22.
Paulie, I’m not sure that’s correct; regardless, I’m not really suggesting that the Sox will spend to the cap. I’m using the cap as the one clear threshold of a reasonable limit on team spending that we have. We have no idea of the team’s payroll allocations over the next 3 years. We haven’t a clue as to what type of payroll annuities they have incorporated into their plans when it comes to acquiring free agents. Your notion seems to be that every dime paid to Abreu above his market value constitutes a waste of money that could have been spent on acquiring a more productive player. I really don’t see that as being the case: we certainly don’t know that to be the case.
Even if you think they’re willing to hit the Luxury tax threshold, they’d have to bring in Cole + Straus + rendon + to get there…
Exactly, Abreu’s contract is irrelevant. If the Sox are ready and willing to spend what it takes to acquire the veteran talent necessary to support their core of young players, they have the capacity to do so regardless of what they decided to pay Jose.
It is my belief the signing bonus of $5M is a 2019 expense on the Sox financials. In 2020 – 2022 the Sox will pay $41M. That to me is a reasonable pay for 3 years of Abreu. The remaining $4M is a mil a year starting in 2023 (inconsequential). I’m not sure what all the angst is about. After all the DH debacles I am pleased to have José penciled in at 1B/DH for 3 years. No guarantee that Vaughn progresses as hoped. Jerry’s money. I really don’t see this impacting future contracts!
I’ll tell you all what–I’m a little bummed out reading the negative takes to the signing. We all can agree that Abreau’s getting paid more than market value, strictly based on on his metrics. He’s going to be overpaid–though I’d argue not by a *whole* lot–over the tenure of this three-year deal.
But is it such a thing to gripe about? Because on one day, we’re all on here crying to the heavens about how Reinsdorf doesn’t care about the fans, and with this signing, he’s gone out and paid–overpaid–a guy because he’s a fan-favorite who’s been loyal to this organization. Reinsdorf is awarding Abeau’s worth to this franchise and all the intangible things he’s done over the past few years. As it’s been stated before, a player’s worth extends beyond numbers some times, and I’d argue, strongly, that Abreau is one of those cases. He’s the face of the franchise, he’s a clubhouse leader, and a mentor to a good chunk–an important chunk–of the roster. Could the Sox have waited until after this season to re-sign Abreau? Sure, of course. But is is so terrible that they didn’t?
Abreau’s not blocking anyone. There’s no way Vaughn’s ready in 2020, and by the time he is–assuming he is, he’s still a very nascent prospect at this point–Abreau will slide into the DH role. And the notion that this deal handicaps the team’s spending is wildly speculative; the team has made it pretty clear that they’re going after FAs this winter; I’m not sure how 2 years/$32 million to Abreau over 2021-22 prohibits things all that much.
In two days we signed the best catcher in baseball and committed to a damn good first baseman who also happens to be a fan-favorite and clubhouse leader and mentor. To me, this was the best week the White Sox have had in a LONG time.
So well said, Hulk. You are right on.
Thanks! And I think you said this too, but I’m the first in line to be pessimistic about the Sox. But with the moves they’ve made and the promise of more to come, I’m feeling good about this team, for the first time in quite a while.
I couldn’t agree more.
*Abreu
I spell it like that *every* single time (Abreau) and I do not know why. It’s like “bureaucracy.” There’s certain words I’ll just never spell correctly the first time.
Don’t understand why sp many have undervalued Jose. How many R/R 1st b, have better stats. You have no problem paying J.D. who might be on a decline. Were is it written that Vaughn is a sure thing. But in todays world .247 with 47 HR and 90 RBI is worth 30 mil a year. We have six outstanding bats, if we can’t shut you down we will out score you. Give Jose a break, his ten year total will be on par with his six year total. Lets see his regression first.
Martinez is a significantly better hitter than abreu and has been for the last several years.
JD is a significantly better hitter and his deal with Boston pays him significantly more than Abreu will receive for the contract he just inked ($62.3MM v.50MM) and I think JD is underpaid. So, what’s the complaint with Jose’s deal?
Ben Cleamons’ article mentions that Abreu’s xwOBA has been basically the same the last four years and talks about his contact profile being pretty ground ball heavy for a power hitter. I think a lot of the variance in Abreu’s numbers the last four years could be randomness or based on factors Abreu cannot control (like the quality of the defense he faces). So maybe he is not really declining and with less first base time he can provide similar offensive production over the next three years.
Talk of Abreu’s decline seems over-blown. His kind of hit/power skills don’t seem to decline especially early (as oppose to run/defense skills). I doubt he’ll be just a “bench bat” by age 35. I really think it’s more a reaction to the Sox making a move that looks like they may not be wholly committed to winning. One “legit” free agent signing followed by a loyalty move of over-paying to retain a fan favorite seems to have rubbed some fans the wrong way.
The guy’s 32. Edwin Encarnacion just got paid $21 million to do the same thing, and he’s 36. I know we’re all feeling the Nate Silver in ourselves, but maybe we need to SABR a little less, and savor a little more of Abreu’s career.
The Sox were never going to hit the perfect number (the one in our heads), so we should chillax and STFelax.
I don’t have the skin to wring my hands over every penny Jerry spends.
Edwin had a bad playoff to boot. JD Martinez isn’t off the table either
Looking at the roster, I’d guess a full-time DH is off the table for this off-season.
The value of this deal will be determined by whether they get Moncada and/or Robert signed to long-term deals during it.
The Fangraph’s piece on this deal referenced in Jim’s story was excellent, and people should thoroughly read it before blasting this move by the Sox.
I have always felt that once this team becomes good, Abreu could be our version of what Willie Stargell was to the Pittsburgh teams of the late 1970s. Willie had one down year and then an injury-filled year in his mid-30s, but then he rebounded with a strong season in 1978 and an MVP season in 1979, when he led the Pirates to the World Series title.
I’m not saying Abreu is going to be an MVP, but I do know the other players respect him a lot, and that he would be very difficult to replace if he left, for a lot of reasons. I don’t expect much drop in productivity from him. Also, Jose is a true team leader, and you give these guys the benefit of the doubt in negotiations.
He’s interviewed on YouTube (Cafe Con Jose Abreu) with subtitles. You will enjoy his Minnie Minoso inspiration especially.
This could be totally wrong, but there seemed to be a correlation between how well/poorly Jose would play depending on how many trade rumors were swirling around.
It seemed like if he was afraid of leaving the Sox, he’d psych himself out and play worse. Not saying he did this on purpose. Even last year he started out just okay for his standards and then once he had his chat with Jerry, he took back off. Or after the trade deadline would pass, he seemed to swing at fewer dumb breaking balls off the corner.
Again–totally anecdotal and my own personal theory, but I think Jose would get potential separation anxiety from time to time and it’d affect his play. Here’s hoping three more years on the South Side does wonders to cure that.