Jordan Lazowski’s Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

This team is as ready as it gets to start competing. There has been substantial growth from the young talent on the team. That leads the White Sox firmly into step 3 of any good rebuild: spending in free agency. Like many others, I’ve placed additional constraints on this offseason beyond what was listed. More about those below. I made several of these offseason plans, taking me many different directions, but this is the one I’ve settled on.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

*Tendering this player a contract does not imply:

A) that I actually want to keep said player, and

B) that I didn’t strongly consider non-tendering him.

With that being said….

Alex Colom̩, $10.3M РTender*

$10.3M is A LOT of money to give to a player I don’t trust late in games. Alex Colome is a good late-inning reliever, so long as those late innings are the seventh and eighth innings. He will be treated as such through the rest of this plan.

Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M – Non-Tender

Yolmer is likely going to win a Gold Glove this year, unless Jose Altuve and the Astros win the World Series (because you know that’s how this works). However, $6M for a player who slugged .321 in a season with juiced baseballs doesn’t help an offense that already can’t keep up with the modern day strategy of hitting balls out of the park.

James McCann, $4.9M – Tender

Yeah, I know, regression is likely coming for McCann. But look at the two World Series teams. Nationals’ catchers this year had a combined OPS of .743, while Astros’ catchers had a combined OPS of .707. Yes, I know, their defense is light years better than McCann’s, and I have a solution for that. But my point is that teams can survive with subpar offensive contributions from catchers.

Carlos Rodon, $4.5M – Tender*

Maybe it’s the Carson Fulmer fan in me, but I have a hard time giving up on Rodon and letting him walk with two years of control left. Anything we can get out of him in those two years is a win for me. Plus, if the White Sox ever have so little pitching depth again that I have to hear the name Odrisamer Despaigne, I’m going to lose it.

Leury García, $4M – Tender*

Leury is a super useful hit-first utility guy. There is a world in which he is useful to this team, and there were plans in which I kept him on the team. This is not one of them.

Evan Marshall, $1.3M – Tender

I don’t view him as a seventh inning guy long-term like he was this year, but Marshall can provider plenty of value to a contending White Sox team.

Josh Osich, $1M – Non-Tender

I feel Osich is more useful than Santiago, so I would like to re-sign him to a minor league deal.

Ryan Goins, $900K – Non-Tender

Same story as with Osich – signing Goins as depth on a minor league deal isn’t the world’s worst idea. He hasn’t exactly done anything that would convince teams to pry him away from the White Sox.

CLUB OPTIONS

Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout: Lol

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019): Retain

Abreu is likely to get the Paulie Special.

Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019): Let Go

If things don’t work out well, there is a possibility Nova is back in 2020.

Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019): Let Go

Fun fact: I actually thought the White Sox already DFA’d him. I clearly get my left-handed hitting friends of Machado mixed up sometimes.

Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract): Let Go

Whatever he can do, Osich can do for cheaper.

FREE AGENTS

Here’s where the fun begins. Like many other plans, I’ve limited myself on the upper-tier guys. There is a world in which I could’ve signed Grandal/Wheeler and still remained under the $120M budget, but signing three top-tier free agents is a difficult ask for any team in the league. That being said, let’s do it.

1B/DH Jose Abreu: 2 years, $30M + 3rd year option (3/$45M)

Contract Breakdown: 2020-2022: $15M

Jose Abreu will no doubt be a member of the White Sox next season, and after reading everyone’s proposals, everyone has a different idea of what kind of contract he will be getting. So, let’s leave it as one that is similar to the $16M he made last year.

DH/RF J.D. Martinez: 3 years, $72M + 4th year option (4/$96M)

Contract Breakdown: 2020-2023: $24M

If I could guarantee the White Sox signed one offensive player this offseason, I would want it to be J.D. Martinez. His body of work speaks for itself, and as has been well-documented that he was good for the younger players in Boston. The rumors continue to swirl around Martinez’s opt-out. If he does indeed decide to leave Boston, this should be an absolute no-brainer for the White Sox.

SP Jake Odorizzi: 3 years, $36M

Contract Breakdown: 2020-2022: $12M

Jake Odorizzi might be considered a top-tier free agent, but on this team, all he would need to be is a consistent 3 or 4 starter. A lot of Odorizzi’s year profiled like Lucas Giolito’s:

2019 Giolito: 11.6 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 3.41 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 36% GB%, .315 wOBA, .322 xwOBA

2019 Odorizzi: 10.1 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 3.51 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 35% GB%, .292 wOBA, .296 xwOBA

So long as Odorizzi can stay healthy, he should be able to build on his career year from 2019. Regardless, he is certainly a consistent pitcher and carries less risk than Wheeler. If you’re going for a high-risk, high-reward strategy, Wheeler is your guy here.

RP Will Smith: 2 years, $20M

Contract Breakdown: 2020-2021: $10M

The White Sox need more bullpen help than I think fans think. Alex Colome is not the answer at the end of the bullpen. Will Smith is the start of finding that solution. Smith has been solid in his two years in San Francisco, racking up 48 saves. Along with Aaron Bummer and my next listed player, the White Sox could have one of the best back of the bullpens in baseball.

RP Daniel Hudson: 2 years, $18M

Contract Breakdown: 2020-2021: $9M

Remember Hudson? You know, the guy with nine total games for the White Sox in 2009-2010? Yeah, now he throws 99 as the closer for the Nationals. He’s gained some serious velocity on his fastball in recent years, and looks to be the exact type of player the White Sox should be looking for to fill their bullpen needs. If the Sox only spent money on one reliever this offseason, I’d like it to be Hudson.

SP/RP Alex Wood: 1 year, $5M with 2nd year option (2 years, $12M)

Alex Wood had quite the 2019. He missed the first 3.5 months of the season, and when he came back, he probably wished he was still out. He went 1-3 with a 5.80 ERA in seven starts. Wood will be looking to build his stock back up this season in hopes of striking a long-term deal with someone after 2020. Wood provides some depth to a team that desperately needs it at the SP position, and if he has a good year, he would have the chance to come back for a second year with the option. Every offseason needs a good low-risk, high-reward move. This is it for the Sox.

UTIL Brad Miller: 1 year, $2.5M

Brad Miller is an interesting player. He has a 30 home run campaign on his resume, yet has followed it up with nothing spectacular. He found some sort of resurgence in Philly last year, hitting 12 homers and slugging .610, but fell back to earth when he was traded to Cleveland. I’m paying him for both his versatility and left-handed off the bench power potential, knowing full well he could bust and Danny Mendick could take his bench spot.

TRADES

There are still a few problems I haven’t solved through free agency, the most glaring one being RF. My only stipulation here: all top prospects except for Andrew Vaughn are unavailable.

White Sox Acquire RF Mitch Haniger and C Tom Murphy from Mariners in exchange for 1B Andrew Vaughn, OF Luis Gonzalez, SP Jonathan Stiever, and C Seby Zavala

I had three main targets for RF: Brian Anderson of the Marlins, Trey Mancini of the Orioles, and Haniger. Haniger is the best player of the three, and given team control, either Anderson or Haniger would’ve cost Vaughn. To get a stud, you’re going to have to give up talent.

The White Sox have a plethora of 1B/DH options, so I don’t have a huge problem with dealing Vaughn. The Mariners have a bunch of young OF flying through their system with not a lot of SP depth, and Stiever’s name carries enough weight now to be considered good prospect depth.

The final piece of this deal is Tom Murphy. He served as Omar Narvaez’s backup last season, hitting .273/.324/.535. His deeper metrics project some serious regression, but that’s not what he’s here for. Murphy is in the 73rd percentile for pitch framing, something the Mariners can’t care too much about since they gave Narvaez double the amount of ABs of Murphy. I’m hoping Murphy is considered a throw-in in this deal – much like Zavala is – but if not, I’d still try and find a way to make this work, potentially by offering Rutherford instead of Gonzalez or Collins instead of Zavala. Hey, anchor low in negotiations, right?

White Sox Acquire SP/RP Ross Stripling from Dodgers in exchange for for RP Alex Colome and RP Zach Burdi

Ross Stripling is the exact kind of pitcher the White Sox need. He has the versatility to either perform as a starter or a reliever, and he has excelled at both for the Dodgers:

2019 as a Starter: 15 GS, 3.60 ERA, .296 wOBA, .246/.284/.424 slash line against

2019 as a Reliever: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, .286 wOBA, .238/.295/.375 slash line against

The one thing the Dodgers do need is late-inning relief help. While they have Jansen for the ninth, they don’t have anyone who can consistently get those seventh and eighth inning outs. Enter the perfect man for that: Alex Colome. If it takes someone like Jace Fry instead of Burdi as well, then I’d also do that. Either way, I’d expect Stripling and Colome to be the starting point for this trade. The White Sox would get their SP depth, and the Dodgers get their late inning guy(s).

White Sox Acquire OF Lane Thomas from Cardinals in exchange for SP/RP Dylan Covey, UTIL Leury Garcia

Lane Thomas is the perfect example of someone I would trade for when I spend too much time researching trades. Thomas is a former fifth round draft pick of the Blue Jays and was traded to St. Louis back in 2017. Thomas tapped into his power in 2018, hitting 27 home runs across AA and AAA. This season, he hit .316/.409/.684 in 44 PAs for St. Louis.

Why do I want him, you ask? I think he could serve as a fourth outfielder with more power potential than Adam Engel. Plus, he walks at a consistent 8-10% rate in recent years, which is more than most White Sox hitters can say. Basically, I’m looking for someone who can provide decent ABs off the bench while not losing a step on Engel. While his OF data is incomplete, he is in the 98th percentile for sprint speed, so at worst, he’s a late-inning pinch runner.

Thomas likely wouldn’t cost too much, as the Cardinals have a backlog of outfielders currently, with a few more top prospects on the way. Thomas also does not fall in the top 30 Cardinals prospect list. Garcia gives them an insurance option, and Covey could potentially benefit from a change of location to a team that has Dakota Hudson, a pitcher who has found a way to be successful by using his power sinker. Perhaps Covey could benefit from his experience.

SUMMARY

Here’s the 26-man roster I envision once Nick Madrigal and Luis Robert join the team:

Lineup:

  1. Luis Robert – CF ($580K)
  2. Yoan Moncada – 3B ($580K)
  3. Jose Abreu – 1B ($15M)
  4. J.D. Martinez – DH ($24M)
  5. Mitch Haniger – RF ($3M)
  6. Eloy Jimenez – LF ($2.3M)
  7. Tim Anderson – SS ($4M)
  8. James McCann – C ($4.9M)
  9. Nick Madrigal – 2B ($580K)

Bench:

1B Zack Collins ($580K), OF Lane Thomas ($580K), C Tom Murphy ($580K), UTIL Brad Miller ($2.5M)

Rotation:

  1. Lucas Giolito ($580K)
  2. Jake Odorizzi ($12M)
  3. Dylan Cease ($580K)
  4. Michael Kopech ($580K)
  5. Reynaldo Lopez ($580K)

Bullpen:

  1. Ross Stripling ($2.3M)
  2. Alex Wood ($5M)
  3. Evan Marshall ($1.3M)
  4. Jace Fry ($580K)
  5. Kelvin Herrera ($8.5M)
  6. Will Smith ($10M)
  7. Aaron Bummer ($580K)
  8. Daniel Hudson ($9M)

Total Roster Salary: $115.8M

Danny Mendick is likely to get most of the ABs until Madrigal arrives, at which point either he or Miller would be relegated to AAA/DFA’d. My guess is if they spend the money on Miller that he would stay. Time will tell.

If Kopech isn’t ready to start the year, then those innings would go to Ross Stripling. When the end of the year comes as well, Stripling would also get more innings with Kopech being on an innings limit. I wouldn’t be opposed to a six-man rotation at times during the year either, if I’m being honest.

However, if I was running this team, I would give STRONG consideration to making Lopez the opener every fifth game and giving Stripling the bulk of the innings in those games. I think this is a far more effective strategy if Lopez doesn’t make big changes heading into 2020.

Finally, there is one trade that I originally included but decided to take out because it felt forced. I would like the White Sox to look into trading for Matt Boyd of the Tigers. I originally wrote the deal to have Lopez and Collins serve as the headliners to the trade. Ultimately, I took it out because it felt forced. However, I would like your thoughts on the potential of that trade.

No matter what, with a little bit of spending, there is no doubt that the White Sox have the ability to make crucial additions this offseason.

I never know how to treat these plans – is it what I would do, or what I think the Sox would do, or a combo of both? Either way, let me know your thoughts on this offseason plan!

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karkovice squad

Alex Colome is a good late-inning reliever, so long as those late innings are the seventh and eighth innings.

I’ve seen this kind of explanation for keeping Colome a few times. If Colome can’t be trusted to get 3 outs with bases empty and a lead in the 9th, he shouldn’t be trusted more in other innings just because they aren’t the end of the game. That’s not how leverage or win probability works.

karkovice squad

Which means he’s not a good late inning reliever. So the Sox aren’t going to get someone useful in return even if they include Burdi’s surgical history. Colome’s either too bad to trade so they should just save some work or he’s good enough to keep at that price. There really isn’t much middle-ground.

As Cirensica

It is more like he is too bad (and expensive) to trade

As Cirensica

Leury is a super useful hit-first utility guy

Hmmm…no.
He was as good hitter as Yolmer Sanchez, and career wise, Yolmer is a tad bit better hitter, both with identical slugging %. And Yolmer is younger, he can rebound after a bad year, has an elite glove, and is a switch-hitter. The $ difference between each other is negligible.

reuan11

Sad commentary on Sox management that in year 5 of a rebuild you have to turn over 40% of the roster (10 of 26) with free agents. But, when you draft Rodon, Fulmer, Burdi, Collins and Jake Burger as all first round picks from 2014 to 2017 and basically get nothing, the first move should be to fire Hahn and Kenny Williams. Unfortunately, that will not happen until Reinsdorf croaks.