White Sox trade rumors: Not much noise around relievers

Major League Baseball’s trade deadline arrives in a week. That sentence is intended to establish the purpose of this post, but also to remind you that July 31 is next week, not next month. With the lack of activity and rumors — especially surrounding the White Sox’ potential trade chits — it’s easy to lose track of time.

The White Sox are sitting there with relievers to deal, but the buyer’s market has yet to emerge. All the content around potential White Sox trades seems to hover around one Bruce Levine tweet:

The lack of activity is a little surprising, if only because the league eliminated the August waiver trade this time around, making it a lot harder to find upgrades after the deadline passes.

Alas, the conditions of the standings just might not be conducive to excitement. I think you can cleave the American League cleanly down the middle:

  • In: Astros, Yankees, Twins, Indians, A’s, Red Sox, Rays, Angels
  • Out: Rangers, White Sox, Mariners, Blue Jays, Royals, Orioles, Tigers

In the National League, however, only 7½ games separate the fourth-best record from the 14th-best record. Moreover, it’s hard to call some of the sub-.500 teams out-and-out sellers for better (Padres have a lot of young talent) or worse (Rockies and Mets have weird front offices).

This should theoretically benefit the White Sox, but they need enough teams to want to add aggressively in order to get into optimal position with Alex Colomé, and that hasn’t happened yet. Assessing the competition on the block, San Diego’s Kirby Yates, Toronto’s Ken Giles, Detroit’s Shane Greene are all on the block and all having better seasons than Colomé, at least when it comes to projectable stats. A few dominoes need to fall before Colomé becomes the best reliever available, and not just attractive for a lower potential asking price.

The White Sox could jump ahead of line if they made Aaron Bummer available. Bummer’s had a terrific season both in terms of results and peripherals, as his sky-high grounder rate makes his independently ordinary strikeout rate stand out more. Stacking him up against Colomé:

  • K rate: Bummer 25%, Colomé 20.8%
  • BB rate: Bummer 7.9%, Colomé 8.3%
  • GB rate: Bummer 68.5%, Colomé 40.6%

The argument against trading Bummer? He has five years of control left, the White Sox are going to need multiple options to record high-leverage outs as soon as next year, and Kelvin Herrera says the White Sox shouldn’t try to solve that on the open market.

The argument for trading Bummer? This was the conversation and debate about Jace Fry last deadline, and Fry’s command and control have slipped measurably since. Bummer brings more power, and his approach is more straightforward than Fry’s bag of tricks, so maybe his success is easier to repeat, but there’s something to be said for selling high on every reliever.

There’s a little more risk in the White Sox dealing their only good relievers at this juncture. As we saw in the first half, the easiest way to overachieve poor projections and run differential issues is with a successful combo of late-inning options, and the White Sox might have to find three news ones if they have an active deadline period. That makes supplying a contender in 2020 harder to achieve.

Then again, the White Sox fashioned themselves this year’s seventh/eighth/ninth foundation out of players who weren’t either part of the mix or part of the organization last September. Maybe White Sox fans shouldn’t expect them to keep digging up new high-leverage options every season, but perhaps the randomness underneath relievers gives as much as it takes.

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Greg Nix

If they can get a major league ready SP for Bummer they should do it. Kahnle’s 2018 is another example of why you sell high on relievers.

Trooper Galactus

If Rutherford was selling high on Kahnle, then Hahn is really bad at this.

As Cirensica

Kahnle is bouncing back with a pretty decent season this year.

Trooper Galactus

Meanwhile, the only thing the White Sox have gotten out of it is a low-ceiling COF prospect and financial relief.

knoxfire30

Give me a top 50-75ish prospect that hits left handed and is 1 year away from the bigs and I would part with either.

Amar

And Bummer (as the centerpiece) could net that in return?

knoxfire30

I think it gets close to that point, especially if the team you are working a trade with has a prospect of that caliber blocked. Sometimes you get a little more in that scenario. 5 years control is no joke.

jorgefabregas

Tommy Kahnle for a more ready Blake Rutherford!

knoxfire30

I knew someone was gonna bring up Rutherford. I hated the rutherford acquisition thought he was brutally over rated as a no proven pop hitter that was gonna be forced to a corner of spot

I want a guy currently showing AA or AAA power. But Kahnle and Fry should serve as good examples of sell high guys out of the pen. Bullpen arms to me are always super iffy, if I can lock down a guy who plays every day and comes with more certainty at this stage of the rebuild I do it. Sox management shouldnt be fooled, their run differential tells the real story, and our owner isnt gonna spend 70 to 80 mil this off season so thinking 2020 is a year of contention I think is pie in the sky.

jorgefabregas

I mean, if someone is near major league ready, then they are by definition different than Rutherford was when the White Sox traded for him.

Patrick Nolan

Keep Bummer. He was undone by a .402 BABIP last year despite excellent peripherals (2.40 FIP). The White Sox didn’t give him much rope. Granted, his contact management has improved since last season, but I’ve never understood why he got passed over for other guys, especially given that he’s always gotten good results against lefties (his primary role before this year).

Bummer has also been slaying righties like crazy this year with peripherals to match (which Fry never did — he was pedestrian against RHB for a high-leverage reliever). He’s had a favorable BABIP but not so favorable that he’s been anything but stellar. I get the caution because relievers can be fickle but I really think the White Sox are better-served to hang on to their good players at this point, lest we continue with #PerpetualRebuild.

Torpedo Jones

I would agree with keeping Bummer unless someone was willing to vastly overpay for him. He’s by no means “untouchable”, but I think homegrown relievers are the way to go and he looks to me like our closer of the future. I definitely don’t want to see us paying top dollars for a closer in the near future. Anecdotally, I feel like FA relievers very rarely pay off.

I’m much more interested in selling off Colome, knowing that GMs are likely aware of his peripherals and you likely won’t get the return that Bummer could fetch.

If you move one or more relievers, who comes up? Another “hold your breath” trip on the Thyago Vieira roller coaster? Maybe Hunter Schryver who has yet to allow a baserunner in Charlotte…through one appearance?

Trooper Galactus

I look at it like this: the Yankees got Gleybar Torres and then some for three months of Aroldis Chapman. Now, of course, Bummer is no Aroldis Chapman (in some ways, this is a good thing), but he has about nine times the control and, hence, significantly more value overall. I don’t think a top-50 prospect plus some throw-ins is an unreasonable ask for Bummer.

burning-phoneix

Bummer is no way shape or form has significantly more value than Chapman.

Chapman was the hardest throwing pitcher in the Majors, striking out a ridiculous 15 batters per nine IP, with 4 straight all star appearances, 4 straight seasons of 30+ Saves and was a deal done by a team desperate to end a 108 year drought by trading for a potential HOF closer.

Bummer is a cheap reliever that has 1 save to his name and a couple of decent to good seasons.

Bummer on his own maybe gets a prospect rated in the lower end of the Top 100.

35Shields

Everyone who mentions the Chapman deal when discussing possible trade returns should be immediately ignored.

The trade was acknowledged by almost everyone, including the Cubs themselves, as an overpay.

Trooper Galactus

Yes, it was an overpay, and anybody expecting to get 4.5 seasons of a very good lefty reliever in his prime should have to overpay to get him from a team entering their competitive window. The White Sox are not under any pressure to trade Bummer the way the Yankees were to trade Chapman.

Kahnle had the same remaining control and high-level results, but a much sketchier prior history and he was included in a trade that was, in hindsight, mostly a salary dump. It wasn’t a huge loss because the White Sox were entering their rebuild and he didn’t fit their timeline, but Bummer absolutely fits in the plan so convincing Hahn to part with him should rightly come with a high cost, and I’d be asking for a top-50-ish prospect.

35Shields

Agreed that the Sox should keep Bummer and that Bummer didn’t get the opportunities last year that his performance dictated.

The Sox pitching depth in the upper minors has been devastated by injuries. Other than Bummer, the only current bullpen members with a FIP below league average are Colome and Fry. This bullpen needs to be added to (in the offseason, not now), not subtracted from.

dwjm3

The most White Soxian thing to do would be to hold on to these guys in order to contend next year only to have our front office sign Jason Vargas this offseason and proceed to not really be a contender. I’m in favor of keeping them assuming we intend to supplement our roster this offseason with real quality.

Torpedo Jones

When you say “supplement our roster this offseason with real quality,” do you mean “take half-hearted swings at top free agents and proudly celebrate that we had a seat at the table”?

dwjm3

I mean actually landing tier guys but yeah what you state tends to be the White Sox modus operandi

Energyman

First, the phrase of the season has to be “… and Kelvin Herrera says the White Sox shouldn’t try to solve that on the open market.”
As for the discussion, I think it would be a Bummer to let Aaron go in a trade. Colome has been excellent also but if someone overpays and includes a lefty hitting right fielder named Kyle Tucker, I say yes. Otherwise, no Colome for you.
We can keep both for next year and hope Rick, Kenny and the clown show actually buy rather than just look at top end free agents. Always an optimist!

35Shields

Eh, Kelvin Herrera was an awful signing at the time and not a reflection of what a free agent reliever signing made by a FO with a cumulative IQ in at least double digits might make.

Trooper Galactus

I liked the Herrera signing, but giving him two years with an option didn’t seem necessary.

35Shields

I mean, sure. I wouldn’t have had a problem with signing Herrera to some deal. But instead, they decided to sign a bounceback candidate to a deal valuing him as if he had already bounced back.

iowasox1971

As soon as you trade Bummer and Colome, you will be desperately trying to replace them for next season. Easier said than done. We do not need another Rutherford or Cordell at this particular time. Unless you are totally blown away with an offer for either or both, keep them. And do not help out the Cubs under any circumstances.

roke1960

I agree, Iowa. We’re not getting anybody’s top outfield prospect for either Bummer or Colome, not with Greene, Giles and Yates still out there. Even if they go, we won’t get much more than AA filler for Colome. Bummer might fetch a little more, but even he’s not going to get us a top prospect. We’ve got enough Cordells, Tilsons, Rutherfords, etc. We don’t need another one.

Trooper Galactus

The injuries to Burdi and Hamilton were pretty disastrous in this regard. We went from having what looked like tons of depth in our bullpen to it basically disappearing. Vieira not figuring things out at all and Fulmer still scuffling aren’t helping matters either.

As Cirensica

I think Alec Hansen will be a good bullpen piece too.

Trooper Galactus

If he can ever find the strike zone, sure. Until then, he’s basically another Thyago Vieira.

35Shields

Wake me up when he gets his BB/9 below 8

PauliePaulie

skip tonight’s AA box score.

PauliePaulie

Because I view 2020 as a final “building” year not a contender, with the unpredictable nature of relievers longer term, I hope Bummer is traded.
I also prefer packaging assets for prospects under the age of 21 with riskier profiles but higher upside.

All that said, I still think they hold for a few more vanity wins.

35Shields

People thinking that the White Sox would get jack for Alex Colome make me so confused:

If you think he’s a really good reliever, why? In the last 2.5 seasons, he’s put up 2.6 WAR. He’s not even one of the 30 best relievers by WAR. This season, he’s put up 0.4 fWAR/WARP. His xFIP and SIERA say that he’s more likely to get worse than better.

If you think that good reliever’s get really good returns, why? You remember how Colome hasn’t been a top 30 reliever in the last 2.5 years? Do you know who was a top 30 reliever in the 2.5 years before they were dealt? Joakim Soria. David Robertson. Stop judging the returns for relievers by the returns that teams got for absolutely elite relief talent. Chapman was 2nd best reliever in the 2.5 seasons before his trade. Miller was the 3rd best. Brad Hand was 11th.

If you think that Colome’s overvalued and due for regression, so he should be traded, why? Do you really think that MLB front offices don’t know how to type in fangraphs.com? In the post-Moneyball era, it’s probably safe to assume that any forthcoming regression that the casual fan can notice is already priced in to that players trade market.

PauliePaulie

I want to trade him because I believe he’s due for regression and the $10mil he’ll make in ’20 is better spent elsewhere.
If traded as a stand alone piece, I expect glove-on-chair in return.

35Shields

Colome is in arb. If all the Sox want is to avoid paying him next year, then they can just non-tender him after the season and fork over the $27.95 required to purchase said glove-on-chair.

PauliePaulie

Then he serves no baseball purpose to the Sox except a worse draft pick.
So get glove on chair and save $2mil.
Or, package for something interesting. Maybe get a garden gnome or 20yo A ball project.

PauliePaulie

That AJ Reed signing makes so much more sense now.

metasox

Interesting that is looks like he is moving to pro scouting

Soxfan2

Someone on MLBTR suggested a Kolby Allard for Alex Colome swap. IMO that’s a pretty fair trade. Allard is longer a top prospect but is still a solid one. He can still be a bottom of the rotation starter or decent reliever. The Braves don’t have time to figure out if he’s a SP or RP,  we do have the time. He is still only 21. 

I only want to trade Colome if we get a player that can help in 2020. 

Trooper Galactus

I guess I could go for that, but I’m not especially familiar with Allard or his struggles.

joseValentinsMustache

Hey Jim. Could you do a sabermetric review of the team every now and then? You and others sometimes cite stats that I have no idea what they mean.

35Shields

You could also ask in the comments. Most of us are happy to answer if we know