Walks remain an uphill climb for White Sox

PHILADELPHIA, PA - MAY 14: Milwaukee Brewers catcher Yasmani Grandal (10) ready at the plate during the MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies on May 14, 2019 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia PA. (Photo by Gavin Baker/Icon Sportswire)

The White Sox offense had a few problems last year. Namely, they didn’t hit homers, they didn’t walk, and they struck out a ton. Some fortuitous batting averages (Tim Anderson, Yoán Moncada) and clutch performances (José Abreu) made it watchable when it very well could have been a non-starter.

Rick Hahn’s offseason conquered the home run issue, and the switch from Yolmer Sánchez to Nick Madrigal could account for 100 strikeouts in and of itself, along with a few milder improvements elsewhere.

The other component of plate discipline remains a work in progress.

The White Sox had the lowest walk rate in baseball last year, coming in at a staggering 6.3 percent. Yes, even National League teams had a better walk rate than the Sox, whether or not you include the pitchers in the team totals.

The Sox separated themselves from the league’s worst offenses by carrying a .329 BABIP, an MLB best by far. Anderson showed that hitting is more fun than walking, even if literally Wade Boggs pointed out the premise isn’t mutually exclusive.

Such a hack-happy approach often works for an individual in a season, but it’s hard to carry across a team for a year. The worst eight teams in walk rate all had tough 2019s, and the Twins and Rays were the only clubs to reach the postseason from the bottom half of this department.

So, the White Sox’s reliance on BABIP makes it difficult to project a world-beating outcome. I had an idea to go through the White Sox’s 99th-percentile projections on PECOTA and list which players had even a remote shot at finding that level, but every single one of them required an OBP above .400, and that’s something the White Sox haven’t accomplished since Jim Thome in 2007.

The White Sox leaderboard in the 12 seasons since features a handful of valiant efforts…

  1. Carlos Quentin, .394, 2008
  2. Paul Konerko, .393, 2010
  3. Paul Konerko, .388, 2011
  4. José Abreu, .383, 2014
  5. Avisaíl García, .380, 2017

… but it resembles the best batting averages since 1941 a little too much for my liking.

  1. Tony Gwynn, .394, 1994
  2. George Brett, .390, 1980
  3. Rod Carew, .388, 1977
  4. Ted Williams, .388, 1957
  5. Larry Walker, .379, 1999

The White Sox made an effort to address this with varying degrees of specificity. It was a major selling point in acquiring Yasmani Grandal, and a significant aspect of Edwin Encarnación’s game. Nomar Mazara, not so much, but he benefits from the low bar buried by the league’s worst right field situation.

The improvement they represent needs to translate to the field, because the White Sox don’t project to get big boosts from within.

Here’s a look at the lineup card, with 2019 on-base percentages and walk rates for each positions on the left, and ZiPS projections for the starters in the columns on the right.

POSOBPBB%2020OBPBB%
C.3047.1Grandal.35815.8
1B.3087.1Abreu.3225.6
2B.3067.7Madrigal.3305.6
3B.3607.9Moncada.3418.6
SS.3355.0Anderson.3013.3
LF.3075.7Jiménez.3296.1
CF.3084.0Robert.3094.1
RF.2965.1Mazara.3076.8
DH.2759.2Encarnación.33611.3

Catcher: Grandal has posted a double-digit walk rate in every season but one, and he took it to new heights in Milwaukee last season. He drew a whopping 103 walks thanks to career highs in walk rate (17.2 percent) and plate appearances (632). Triple-digits might be hard to repeat, but a dramatic improvement seems sticky.

First base: Abreu walked at a 5.2 percent clip for the second time in three seasons. The position was buoyed a bit by Yonder Alonso last year, and Encarnación figures to provide the same assistance. It’s also worth noting that Abreu is the one guy in the lineup who gets hit by enough pitches to show it’s a repeatable contribution.

Second base: Say what you will about Sánchez’s faults as a hitter, but he led the team in walks last year … with 44. That’s the same number that Madrigal drew across three levels last year, but I have the sense that walks will be difficult for him to come by early in his career.

Third base: Moncada strikes me as the most likely to exceed his walk projection. He’s shown a disciplined eye in the past, but he didn’t have the hit tool to survive so many deep counts, so he made the decision to get cornered less frequently. After improving his batting average 80 points, he might be pitched more carefully, and/or he might have the confidence to see two strikes more often.

Shortstop: Anderson plays there, and Ryan Goins no longer can help.

Left field: Eloy Jiménez’s combination of bat-to-ball abilities and plate coverage meant he was rewarded for aggression in the minors, so his 6 percent walk rate in his rookie season fits with his recent minor-league history. I have the sense that he can improve this category simply out of necessity.

Center field: Luis Robert and Leury Garcia play here.

Right field: Over his four years in the majors, only six points separates Mazara’s best OBP (.323) from his worst (.317). A miserable performance against lefties drags all his discipline numbers down (4.1 percent walk rate, .272 career OBP), but the Sox don’t seem intent on platooning him out of the gate. Even if they did, it’d be with somebody like Adam Engel.

Designated hitter: Alonso owned the team’s highest walk rate by a significant margin during his time with the Sox (11.6 percent), but he might not have maintained that lead if he somehow stuck for a whole season. It plummeted once opposing pitchers realized they had little to fear.

  • April: 16% BB, .190 BA
  • May: 9.5% BB, .184 BA
  • June: 5.7% BB, .125 BA

I have the feeling that Encarnación could follow a similar trajectory due to the combination of his age and pop-up frequency, which is not to say I opposed the signing. The Sox needed his combination of power and approach, and the price was right.

If his decline is a little too much to manage, Zack Collins could help offset a slide. Plate discipline has kept Collins’ hopes afloat even during darker times, and it’s such a calling card that his 13.7 percent rate in the majors was the lowest of his professional career, and by far.

This is all to say that Andrew Vaughn is vitally important to a future White Sox lineup that makes pitchers work. This is also why the Sox may be loath to give up on Collins as a catcher. And this is why it’d help if the Sox could develop guys who can determine balls and strikes from a position other than first base. Moncada looks like the one guy who capable of both walking and running, but unless Madrigal is scarier than he looks or Mookie Betts is coming through that door, he might not have much company.

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texag10

This is why I’m a huge proponent of signing George Springer if he’s an option next offseason. Sure he has that Astros taint (heh) but he’s been a 10%+ BB% his entire MLB career. Plus, he hits dingers.

andyfaust

Let’s revisit this after 2020. I suspect that the walks might drop a little this year (not to mention his HRs). Of course, his OBP may remain unchanged due to a few more HBP in 2020. 

joewho112

It would be hilarious if the Astros lead the league in OBP on the strength of their HBPs

texag10

I mean, he’s been in the league since 2014 and hasn’t had a walk rate in the single digits. He’s probably not a 40 home run threat but his walk rate is still really good.

shaggy65

I kinda like the idea of BABIP being the White Sox’ competitive advantage. I realize it’s not typically sustainable, but I do think the Sox have made a conscious effort the last few years to acquire guys with the skill set to generate a higher BABIP than most.

More walks would be better, of course, but I think the Moneyball revolution led too many clubs to seek good walkers over good hitters. Homers and walks might help teams beat up on average pitchers, but strong hit tools are required to beat good pitchers–our eventual goal.

karkovice squad

Forget Journey for their theme song. They’ll have to go with Nancy Sinatra.

Or Pantera.

ImmortalTimeTravelMan

Don’t worry, Mookie Betts will be at next year’s Spring Training.