It’s a Marte Party! Warningtrackpower’s Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

After a disappointing end to the 2021 season with a first-round exit to the eventual AL champion Houston Astros, it’s imperative that the White Sox solve their long-standing lack of production in RF this offseason. With an aging owner in Jerry Reinsdorf and manager in Tony LaRussa, along with many cost-controlled young players that are entering their primes, it’s time for this team to make their mark.

I’ll stop short of saying the 2022 White Sox adopt the “World Series or bust” mantra, but anything short of an ALCS appearance should be a disappointment.

In creating my first offseason plan, I looked to address what I feel are the 5 biggest needs on the roster in the following order:

  1. Right Field
  2. Second Base
  3. Backup Catcher
  4. Starting Pitcher
  5. Bullpen Depth

In making these movies, I tried to ensure my trades were balanced based on the values listed at baseballtradevalues.com, though you’ll notice one such trade is slightly less realistic. Since Cheapo Jerry isn’t giving us much more than $170-$175 million to work with as a payroll budget, I’ll be looking to maximize the trade value of the few decent prospects the Sox have and thus will not be spending much in Free Agency.

With that said, here’s the roster you can look forward to hitting the field come Opening Day on March 31st vs the Minnesota Twins.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

  • Lucas Giolito: $7.9M: TENDER. I’d love to extend Gio but I see him going year-to-year for the next 2 seasons to maximize his value ahead of Free Agency.
  • Reynaldo López; $2.8M: TENDER
  • Evan Marshall: $2.3M: NON-TENDER. Offer to resign to a minor league deal while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery.
  • Adam Engel: $2.2M: TENDER
  • Brian Goodwin: $1.7M: NON-TENDER
  • Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M: NON-TENDER. This is too rich for Jerry’s blood but I’d offer “Jimmy Guns” the chance to come back on a minor league deal for bullpen depth.
  • Jace Fry: $1M: NON-TENDER. This “Fry” is no longer on the value menu, so he must go. I’ll offer a minor league deal to him as well to keep the Burger, Fry, Colas promotion night dream alive should Cuban prospect Oscar Colas officially sign with the Sox.

CLUB OPTIONS

  • Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout): PICK UP. Relax, I’m as sick of seeing Kimbrel serve up dingers as you are. I’ll be trading him below.
  • César Hernández: $6M: DECLINE. His performance was more akin to Little Caesar than Julius Caesar. Watch him sign with the Twins and rake.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

  • Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021): LET GO. I loved Leury for the super-utility role he excelled at in his time with the Sox. However, he will be too expensive based on the other moves I have lined up.
  • Carlos Rodón ($3M): EXTEND QUALIFYING OFFER. I don’t expect Rodon to accept the 1 year, $18.4 million QO deal as he will look to strike it rich on a multi-year deal in Free Agency. I’d be willing to offer 2 years, $30 million in that case with about $12 million in salary for 2022 but I would expect a more desperate team (i.e. the Angels) to give him a 3 year deal. I don’t think he comes back to the Sox.
  • Billy Hamilton ($1M): LET GO. As fun as he was for the roster, Billy doesn’t do enough to warrant a 26 man spot for the entire season. Revisit come August as a potential Jarrod Dyson type pinch-runner off the bench.
  • Ryan Tepera ($950K): RETAIN. I’ve seen a few different offers in other plans for Tepera. I think 2 years, $8 million is a fair price for a potential right-handed setup man. I’ll give him $3 million this year and the other $5 million in 2023.

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

No. 1: Sign OF Starling Marte (3 years, $45 million). 

For my one free agent move, I’m finally solving the White Sox RF problems for good by bringing in former All-Star Starling Marte.

Yes, Marte is 33 years old heading into the 2022 season, but you wouldn’t know it by the excellent performance he turned in between the Miami Marlins and Oakland A’s in 2021. Marte put together a Major League leading 47 stolen base season along with an excellent .310/.383/.458 slash line and 12 HRs. Power has never been a big part of his game, with a career high single season total of 23 HRs back in 2019, but Marte won’t be expected to bring the thunder in a Sox lineup with the likes of Abreu, Jimenez, and Robert.

Instead, Marte provides a nice blend of average, doubles, speed, durability, and defense to a team that could desperately benefit from all five of these elements. A Gold Glover in LF in 2015 & 2016 but more regularly featured in CF the past few seasons, I think Marte would still be a solid defender in RF for the Sox despite not having officially played a big league game there.

Not one to strike out much (below 20% every year since 2015), Marte increased his walk rate from 4.8% to 8.2% this past year. I’d be interested to see if that continues when he joins the Sox. For this contract, I’m paying him $15 million per season.

TRADES:

No. 1: Trade OF/1B Andrew Vaughn & RF Micker Adolfo to Arizona for 2B/CF Ketel Marte

We just landed Starling Marte in Free Agency, so let’s bring another Marte to the White Sox’s Marte Party in 2022.

Ketel just turned 28 years old and is under affordable team control for the next 3 seasons if his 2023 and 2024 club options ($10 million and $12 million, respectively) are picked up. An All-Star in 2019 with a 32 HR, 92 RBI season, Marte bounced back from a down 2020 season with a .318/.377/.532 slash line, 14 HRs and 50 RBI this year. The $8 million Marte will make this year is a bit more than Cesar Hernandez would’ve earned, but I believe is a better investment for our second base dollars.

Marte played 20 games at 2B this year after playing 41 games there in 2020 (out of 60) and 83 in 2019. He’s not exactly great shakes defensively at second with a -0.5 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) the last 2 years, though his glove work is statistically better at the keystone than in Center Field.

In exchange for solving second base, I’m sending a young slugger that I believe has a lot of promise in Andrew Vaughn and the out of options Micker Adolfo to a rebuilding Arizona ballclub. Losing six years of control of Vaughn stings, but he should be able to solve 1B or a corner outfield spot for Arizona while growing into his power. In my opinion, he’s a better prospect than either Seth Beer or Pavin Smith, who also sit on the D’Backs 1B depth chart.

I’m gonna bank on Gavin Sheets to fill the long-term void for Jose Abreu at first should he depart in Free Agency next year and Adolfo didn’t have a clear path to at bats with the Sox, so off he goes to sweeten the return.

No. 2: Trade RP Craig Kimbrel and $4 million to the Toronto Blue Jays for C Reese McGuire and RP Bryan Baker

This is nowhere near the return the Cubs got for sending Kimbrel to the South Side just a few months ago, but this is mostly a salary dump move for the Sox. Toronto gets a proven closer (though Jordan Romero was quite good in that role last year for the Blue Jays) that gives them a much deeper bullpen than they had a year ago.

In exchange for Kimbrel’s services and $4 million to help offset his $16 million salary, the Sox get the left-handed hitting McGuire to serve as Yasmani Grandal’s backup in 2022 and some bullpen depth in Baker to stash in Charlotte.

While Baker only has one big league inning to his credit, our new backup catcher has a few years of experience in the bigs. McGuire doesn’t bring much to the table offensively despite his prospect pedigree, but is an excellent pitch framer. Per Baseball Savant, McGuire was 10th among big league catchers in “Runs Extra Strikes” with 4 runs saved from extra strikes received. He was also much better than the 2.01 second “pop time” average for catchers throwing out base runners after receiving the pitch, with a 1.97 second “pop time.” Grandal was at 2.07 seconds, for comparison.

It also helps that McGuire is only 24 years old and quite cheap, as he is pre-arbitration eligible. With RF, 2B, and backup C out of the way, let’s turn our attention to the pitching staff.

No. 3: Trade SP Dallas Keuchel and $6 million to the Washington Nationals for RP Will Harris

If Jerry hasn’t already had a heart attack at sending $4 million to the Blue Jays for Craig Kimbrel to go away, he’s gonna hate this trade.

In order to convince the Nats to acquire Dallas Keuchel as a back-end starter, we need to make his salary more attractive. This essentially makes Keuchel a $12 million pitcher for the Nats, which is a bit closer to the $10 million contracts we’ve seen bandied about to the likes of Corey Kluber and other veteran back-end SPs in recent years.

I saw Will Harris as an intriguing trade candidate because his contract lines up somewhat nicely with Keuchel’s (making $8 million this year), so it’s not purely a cash dump move for the Sox. Harris struggled with injuries last year, including Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, but has been quite good out of the pen when healthy with the Astros prior to his stop in Washington.

His age and consistent outperformance of his FIP numbers concern me a bit, but I’m hoping Harris can settle in as a nice bridge option before Tony has to call on the likes of Bummer, Tepera, and Hendriks.

No. 4: Trade SP Jared Kelley, OF Yoelqui Cespedes, 3B Wes Kath to Cincinnati for SP Luis Castillo

This trade seems less realistic but with the recent decision to part with backup C Tucker Barnhart for a non-noteworthy prospect from Detroit, it’s clear the Reds are in cost-cutting mode for 2022.

Castillo is projected to make about $7.6 million in his second turn through arbitration, which may be too rich for Cincinnati’s blood given his uneven 2021 performance. While the overall numbers look solid for Castillo (ERA and FIPs under 4, more strikeouts than innings pitched), he had a nightmare first 10 starts, with an ERA well above 7 and surrendering hits left and right.

After June, though, he had an ERA in the mid 2’s and once again showed why he was one of the better right handlers in the NL over the past few years.

To get the deal done, I’m willing to send away several high-end prospects to acquire Castillo’s final two years of team control. Cespedes is generally ranked first or second among Sox position player prospects and Kelley had an outside shot at an MLB Top 100 ranking heading into the season, while Kath was just drafted this past year.

It’s a lot of “if” for the Reds to bank on, especially with Jared Kelley’s injuries and underperformance in the low minors this year. This is perhaps why it wouldn’t have passed muster on Baseball Trade Values.

If the Reds weren’t to accept this deal, it would be a fair bet they would pass on their $10 million club option for resurgent starter Wade Miley. I’d pick him up instead on a two-year deal with the approximate $8 million Castillo would have made this year and give him a salary boost to $12 million in 2023 so the payroll math ends up the same. Though I’d much rather have Castillo from a results and intrigue standpoint than the journeyman Miley.

SUMMARY

All told, my 26 man roster payroll ends up at about $167.5 million, which oughta make Jerry happy. Unfortunately for the Sox Chairman, I also sent another $10 million out the door for two players (Kimbrel and Keuchel) that won’t throw a pitch in a Sox uniform in 2022. This puts me slightly over the total payroll for the exercise ($177.5 million), which reinforces just how tough of a job Rick Hahn will have in executing a championship roster on a sub-$200 million payroll.

With my moves, I believe I have adequately solved the White Sox deficiencies in RF, 2B, backup C, SP, and the bullpen. You could argue the Castillo trade is unrealistic, which could mean the Sox will need to look for a mid-season rotation upgrade if a less desirable option like Wade Miley ends up filling Carlos Rodon’s old rotation spot. The bullpen could also be an area of need if key relievers aren’t able to repeat their 2021 performances or if Harris’ arm falls off. The bench could also be an area of weakness but I trust Tony to find the right mix there.

What I really like about this team, though, is the depth of their lineup. With two Martes now in the fold, the Sox are truly a force to be reckoned with offensively and should be in much better position to absorb injuries. I’d feel comfortable with either Marte in the leadoff spot, for example, which has been an eyesore when Tim Anderson has been injured or out of the lineup.

Here’s what the 26 man roster looks like.

ROTATION

  1. Lucas Giolito
  2. Lance Lynn
  3. Luis Castillo
  4. Dylan Cease
  5. Michael Kopech (may need Lambert, Stiever, etc to soak up some innings here)

BULLPEN

CL – Liam Hendriks
SU – Aaron Bummer
SU – Ryan Tepera
MRP – Will Harris
MRP – Garrett Crochet
MRP – Ryan Burr
MRP – Jose Ruiz
LRP – Reynaldo Lopez

LINEUP

SS – Tim Anderson
2B – Ketel Marte
CF – Luis Robert
1B – Jose Abreu
3B – Yoan Moncada
LF – Eloy Jimenez
C – Yasmani Grandal
RF – Starling Marte
DH – Gavin Sheets

BENCH

OF – Adam Engel
IF – Jake Burger (let him DH against lefties if needed)
UTIL – Romy Gonzalez
C – Reese McGuire

 

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burning-phoneix

You couldn’t have gotten us Seth Beer from Arizona so we can have the Burger, Fries, Colas, Beer Quadrumvirate?

JoeyDoughnuts_

I’m currently having troubles getting my own OPP to post on here, but holy good god when I was done with mine and skimming through some titles of previous ones yours caught my eye because we BOTH decided to bring in the Marte boys! Ha! And not only that, but my plan ALSO has the Sox sending Kimbrel to the Jays for a package around Reese McGuire. And here I was avoiding all the Michael Conforto group-think and trying to think outside the box and I come to find out someone else had 3 of the same moves I had in mind. Doh!