Contend and Restock: Danny Hacker’s Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

Hello my name is Danny Hacker and I see the White Sox on the verge to compete for a title starting in 2020 however I also will make trades that will “restock” and ultimately improve the farm while being competitive and making moves as such focusing on the competitive aspect in FA.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries

  • Alex Colomé, $10.3M: Tender
  • Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M: Non-Tender
  • James McCann, $4.9M: Tender
  • Carlos Rodon, $4.5M: Tender
  • Leury García, $4M: Tender
  • Evan Marshall, $1.3M: Tender
  • Josh Osich, $1M: Tender
  • Ryan Goins, $900K: Non-Tender

CLUB OPTIONS

Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.

  • Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout: Decline

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Try to retain, or let go?

  • Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019): Absolutely try to retain for 3yrs/$50M ($16.6M AAV)
  • Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019): Let Go
  • Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019): Let Go
  • Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract): Let Go

FREE AGENTS:

Let me get this out of the way. I absolutely would spend the money for Cole. However two things; one I don’t want to be the same as most people and want to think a little out of the box. Two is that Astros players think he’s westward bound and if that’s the case gotta move on.

#1 Zack Wheeler: Wheeler over the last two seasons is finally looking like the guy they traded Carlos Beltran for almost a decade ago. 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 in 377.2 IP (60 Starts) is something I would really want in the rotation. I’m not worried that this will be Age 30 season and I think missing all of ‘15 and all of ‘16 will end up giving him some milage towards his mid 30s which is perfect for us taking the risk on a 4-5 year deal. I’ll say 5yrs/$90M ($18M AAV)

#2: Starling Marte: .291/.341/.799 in 2,060 PA. That’s Marte’s slash line over the last four seasons. .286/.335/.816 in 1,192 PA. That’s Marte’s slash line over the last two seasons. .291/.342/.845 in 586 PA. That’s Marte’s slash line over the last two seasons. My point? I feel he’s a very underrated Free Agent walking into this offseason. Casty will get all the press but Marte will come at a relatively good deal. Eloy in right, Robert in Center and Marte in Left. Sounds good to me. I’ll say 4yrs/$70M ($17.5M AAV)

#3: Shelby Miller: Go ahead and laugh. I’m telling you to. But I think there is absolutely no risk and all reward to signing Shelby Miller. A year after TJS had him floating around the Majors and Minors and the results weren’t pretty. But there are things in his pitch selection like getting him to throw the cutter and slider more like he did in the STL heyday. FB velo is still there and the CB still drops, but again he lost confidence in the CUT and SL and that’s why I believe he struggled in his first season back from TJS. Let Shelby have a full Spring and be the #5 guy behind Giolito, Wheeler, Cease and Reynaldo. If he struggles in his first few starts, then transition him to the ‘pen and see if that can work. I still believe Miller has tons of potential and for a 1yr/$2.5M deal ($2.5 AAV [Duh but it’s for a stylistic formality]), it’s absolutely worth it.

TRADES:

#1: Trade Gavin Sheets, Jimmy Lambert and a PTBNL (Mendick/Hansen/Flores type) to the Mariners for Sam Carlson and Brandon Williamson: I know it seems like an overpay for two guys that currently sit at #12 and #16 on MLB Pipeline but with Vaughn, Sheets is completely expendable and Sam Carlson is a much MUCH better prospect than #12 in the SEA system. Extremely mature prep pitcher from the ‘18 draft with a 60 grade FB, 55 Grade SL, 60 grade CH and 55 grade control. His stock is so low due to last year’s TJS and once he returns, baring any setbacks, he will soar up a system. I’d love that to be the White Sox system. I’ve been a huge Carlson fan since draft day. Williamson is a much risker prospect but is a 4 pitch pitcher with a 60 grade FB, 55 grade SL and 50 grade CB and CH. Control will be his do or die but had a 25-5 K-BB in 15.1 Short A IP last year in 10 Appearances (9 Starts). His upside is promising, I ultimately think he’s a starter and you can never have too much starting pitching. Alec Hansen feels like a Jerry Dippo reclaim project if he would end up being the PTBNL and Jimmy doesn’t feel like a guy who will be around when this team competes. Sheets’ OBP skills i feel end up being better than Evan White’s and they can easily go one at 1st and one at DH. I think in general we see more prospect for prospect trades like the Jazz-Gallen trade at the deadline which is why I absolutely pull the trigger on this trade.

#2: Trade Blake Rutherford to Toronto for Adam Kloffenstein: This again is another prospect for prospect trade. I know Toronto probably will want to hold Kloffenstein but they also do not have very many exciting OF prospects and Rutherford can potentially fill a void for them with some pop and good speed. OBP is improving and with the signing of Marte, Rutherford is expendable for more pitching. Kloffenstein is another prep pitcher who I love with massive amounts of upside though is still far away. Went 4-4 with a 2.24 ERA, 64 K, 23 BB and a 1.09 WHIP in 64.1 IP (13 Starts) in Short A as a 19 year old. His stock is still low as most don’t know who he is. 4 pitcher Prep pitcher with a 60 grade FB, 55 grade SL, 55 grade CH and a 50 grade CB with 50 grade control. I think he gives the organization another great option for the future in the event one of Dunning/Steiver/Kopech/Lopez don’t pan in a few seasons and if Rodon walks. I’m alllll over this trade if I can make it.

#3: Trade Alex Colome to the Indians for Ethan Hankins. Are you guys catching a theme here? I hope so. I’m improving the farm with tons of lowkey names who have tremendous upside while their values are still low. The price of closers is high and Cleveland will want another piece for their ‘pen. Meanwhile we can very easily slide Aaron Bummer to CL to stay competitive and add Hankins, who is in my opinion the highest upside pitcher in the Indians organization, with a 70 grade FB, 55 grade CH, 50 grade SL and CB and 50 control. He would fit very well within the organization and again gives depth to a starting core that suddenly doesn’t have any depth to it any more.

SUMMARY:

26 Man Roster:

-James McCann

-Jose Abreu

-Nick Madrigal (Yes on OD roster, release Carson Fulmer to make 40 man Space, pre OD contract of 6yrs/$30M ($5M AAV)

-Tim Anderson

-Yoan Moncada

-Luis Robert (Yes on OD roster, Don’t think I need to make room with Nova etc gone. Also signs a pre OD contract, 6yrs/$55M $9.1M AAV)

-Starling Marte

-Eloy Jimenez

-Leury Garcia

-Zach Wheeler

-Lucas Giolito

-Dylan Cease

-Reynaldo Lopez

-Shelby Miller

-Evan Marshall

-Aaron Bummer

-Kelvin Herrera

-Josh Osich

-Jace Fry

-Michael Kopech

-Adam Engel

-Dylan Covey

-Zack Collins

-Tyler Johnson (Would release Jose Rodon to make 40 man space)

-Thyago Vieria

-Seby Zavala

Payroll commitments using the project’s assumptions and contracts I signed based off pure AAV is roughly $98.7M for 2020

Some general notes:

-I think the only way Madrigal and Robert are on the OD roster in actuality are Pre OD contracts and I wanted to plan for that payroll accordingly in the plan (not much AAV wise but still)

-Shelby Miller starts in the OD rotation but Kopech healthy would ultimately boot him unless Miller is a star again and Reynaldo is struggling

-All the pitching prospects acquired in the plan have ETAs of 2021 or beyond. This is absolutely to plan for a bust or two plus Rodon ultimately walking and you can never ever have too much starting pitching. They are extremely realistic and it’s a great way to demonstrate buying low on great upside pitching prospects that aren’t household prospect names….. yet

-Rendon would’ve been awesome but it completely messes with the idea of the Moncada-Anderson-Madrigal INF and Moncada was much better defensively at third. I don’t think moving Moncada to 2nd helps the White Sox long term Rendon or not so as a result, I have not pursued him in my plan

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DannyH1394
DannyH1394
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striker

Marte has an option that will be picked up. So he would have to be acquired via trade.

lil jimmy

Sam Carlson, I like him. Let’s do it!