Chicagotim’s Solid, Patient, and Boring Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

This is where the payroll constraints really start to get hard. We have holes to fill at 2B and RF and not much farm capital to work with. On the bright side, this is a playoff caliber team albeit not a dominant one. I refuse to sell low on Vaughn or Kimbrel which limits our options even further, but I think that it’s the right decision in the long run.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

  • Lucas Giolito: $7.9M Tender
  • Reynaldo López; $2.8M Tender 
  • Evan Marshall: $2.3M Non-Tender (offer minor league contract)
  • Adam Engel: $2.2M Tender
  • Brian Goodwin: $1.7M Non-Tender (offer minor league contract)
  • Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M Tender
  • Jace Fry: $1M Non-Tender (offer minor league contract)

CLUB OPTIONS

  • Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout) pick up
  • César Hernández: $6M pick up (you’re not gonna like where we are going with this…)

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

  • Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021) Let go
  • Carlos Rodón ($3M) Let go
  • Billy Hamilton ($1M) Extend contract 2yr 3.5M ($1.5M in ’22)
  • Ryan Tepera ($950K) Let go

Boras is gonna find a way to get Rodon paid this Winter and we just can’t afford to keep him. Same with Leury pricing himself out of our utility man role

FREE AGENTS

 

No. 1: Michael Conforto (four year, $70 million, $15M in ’22). We have one bullet in the chamber and this is where it goes. fits the hole in RF and hopefully allows us to buy low after a down year with Conforto who hopefully returns to his 2017-2020 self. He’s only 28 so I think it’s very feasible

TRADES

I put feelers out on a Kimbrel trade, but I really don’t think I get anyone to bite. I refuse to sell low and think I/Hahn will insist on getting elite Closer value which I don’t think comes until the deadline

SUMMARY

Even with all the cuts and tough decisions, I am still sitting at a $186M opening day payroll which is conveniently exactly the cost of picking up Kimbrel’s option. I hopefully convince Jerry that the $16M is money well spent for a trade to be made at a later date a la Moneyball Billy Beane. This team is far from perfect. The rotation is shaky and we’re still trotting out Hernandez at 2B, but I think I made reasonable estimates of player costs and trade value and made the best of a tough situation.

You’ll notice 1 conspicuous absence on my opening day roster – I have Vaughn starting the year in AAA to get his rhythm back and finally getting to see/dominate AAA.

Opening day Roster

C – Grandal

1B – Abreu

2B – Hernandez

3B – Moncada

SS – Timmy

LF – Eloy

CF- Robert

RF – Conforto

DH – Sheets

Vaughn Joins the lineup around May if all goes to plan

Bench:

C – Zavala

OF – Engel

OF – Hamilton

UTIL – Mendick

Starting Rotation

  1. Giolito
  2. Lynn
  3. Cease
  4. Kopech (!)
  5. Keuchel

Yes Keuchel stays in the rotation. He is as good as any 5th starter option and he comes at the low low price of FREE (after sunk costs) so it makes no sense to get rid of him

Arm Barn

CL – Hendricks

SU – Kimbrel

R1 – Bummer

R2 – Crochet

R3 – Lopez

R4 – Cordero

R5 – Foster

R6 – Ruiz

 

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MattVerplaetse

I guess if you’re trying to predict what the Sox *will* do rather than what they *should* do, I could buy this plan, but this roster might actually be worse than the one with which they ended 2021. The bullpen is certainly worse.

DaytonC83

Conforto is the most likely and sensible big name FA pickup. I think your money is right on it as well. UNFORTUNATELY, I actually think he accepts the QO from the Mets. He deserves at least Springer money with his ability and he’s coming off the valley of his career. Take 18 mil, rebuild your value, and go back out next year after a clean CBA as well.

Vaughn in AAA makes so much sense. I didn’t even think of it but I could see the Sox doing that for his greater good.

Past that? I think you got bored and just didn’t want to think up the depth moves we need additionally. Need a pen guy and a utility guy at the least I believe. Using Cesar and Keuchel to start the year isn’t insane.

DaytonC83

Btw check mine out if you get a chance