AT’s Offseason Plan: There’s A Second Trader Jerry Now

PREAMBLE

The general direction from which to move at this point seems clear. The White Sox have genuine young star talent at multiple positions on the major league team, with more coming soon… albeit maybe two weeks into the season. The holes to fill for this team to make the leap are mostly clear-cut, but there’s quite a few ways to go about doing that. I’m banking on front office incompetence… just not from the White Sox for once. I think the single best move the Sox could make would be to sign Gerrit Cole, and I doubt many readers would disagree. The bigger question is: how would they do this and also fill the other holes for under $120M? As Rick Hahn laid out, those holes are: right field, designated hitter, and 2 starting pitchers. It never hurts to bolster the bullpen as well if possible.

This uses MLBTR arb salary projections for all arb-eligible players, including those not currently on the White Sox.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

  • Alex Colomé, $10.3M– Tender. He’s not as good as his ERA, but that’s fine.
  • Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M– Nontender. If only he could hit at all, likely Gold Glover.
  • James McCann, $4.9M– Tender. BABIP hijinks aside, he’s probably an averageish catcher going forward.
  • Carlos Rodon, $4.5M– Tender. I don’t see a better use of that money.
  • Leury García, $4M– Tender.
  • Evan Marshall, $1.3M– Tender. Also not as good as his ERA, but also fine.
  • Josh Osich, $1M– Nontender.
  • Ryan Goins, $900K– Nontender.

CLUB OPTIONS

  • Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout: Decline. Sorry Beef.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

  • Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019)– Resign to a 2 year/$28M contract, like everyone else.
  • Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019)– Let the Royals or whoever have him.
  • Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019)– He’ll enjoy retirement in his hometown of Miami.
  • Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract)– I like and appreciate Hector, but I really hope the 2020 White Sox will not need his services.

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: Gerrit Cole ($245 million, 8 years). Forget what happened on Tuesday night against the Nationals. This is the big one, probably the best pitcher on the planet at the moment, and the fun of this plan is making this work despite “limited” funds. I’m tacking on the extra $5M from the usual 240/8 to compensate for the annoyances of dealing with Jerry Reinsdorf.

 

No. 2: Jake Odorizzi ($42 million, 3 years, plus two club option years at $15M/each). The mercurial 29-year-old Odorizzi posted his best season to date last year, split into a fantastic first half and not so great second half. He’ll be the fifth starter, shunting Reynaldo to the bullpen/6th starter role, and puts the finishing touch on what looks to be a World Series quality rotation… on paper anyways.

 

No. 3: Tony Cingrani ($7M/2 years, plus one $4.5M club option year): Cingrani is a 30-year-old lefty reliever and Evergreen Park native, who muddled in mediocrity for the Reds for several years before getting traded to the Dodgers at the 2017 deadline, whose application of analytics caused Cingrani’s strikeout rate to spike by 50%. Cingrani continued to dominate until shoulder trouble hit mid-2018, and labrum surgery ultimately meant he didn’t pitch in the majors at all in 2019. It’s possible this contract is a little rich for a not-established reliever coming off shoulder surgery, but I really like the upside from the left side, and the fact that he probably grew up a Sox fan is a bonus.

 

TRADES

No. 1: Trade Alex Colome, Aaron Bummer, Evan Marshall, and Blake Rutherford to the New York Mets for Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Diaz. This is real, and not a joke. The 2019 Mets had a really solid rotation and pretty good lineup sunk by bullpen incompetence. Rumor has it they like groundball pitchers with ERAs lower than ‘advanced’ metrics estimate (see Stroman, Marcus), which might be related to their shiny new closer giving up 15 (!!) dingers off the HappyFunBall last year. The Mets can replace Nimmo decently with J.D. Davis– a downgrade, maybe but not an awful one.

I’m also counting on the Metsian irrationality in throwing in Diaz because of last year’s disaster, in which he still struck 39% of the guys he faced last year despite rabbit ball problems– Coop just needs to teach him a cutter, or maybe fix his bad karma, or maybe blackmail Manfred into deadening the ball. Rutherford is there to sweeten the pot; he’s not doing much for the Sox, and maybe the Mets think they can develop him into a Nimmo-like player. It’s possible this deal gets done without him, and that’s great if so, but I wouldn’t be confident about that one.

The Sox would miss Bummer, because he’s young and very good, but I’m of the opinion that relievers should be traded away when at the height of their value (see: Diaz, Edwin), and this is probably Bummer’s. What this trade really hinges on is the Mets liking the GB tendencies and low ERAs of the three relievers going their way. I think it’s logical for both sides… using some Metsian logic on one side, anyways. If you prefer to imagine Conforto instead of Nimmo, go ahead, although Conforto’s more expensive in 2020.

 

No. 2: Trade Carlos Rodon, Jace Fry, and Konnor Pilkington to the Tampa Bay Rays for RP Oliver Drake, RP Chaz Roe, and C Mike Zunino. The Rays aren’t about to keep relievers in arbitration. Last year was Drake’s first in Tampa Bay, and he saw both his strikeout rate and dinger rate rise quite a bit– I’m betting the latter was a rabbit ball fluke, like with Diaz. There’s nothing really wrong with Roe besides being 33 and in arbitration. Zunino was awful last year, an offensive black hole and will likely be owed $4.9M; the Rays aren’t gonna bank on his upside again for that price, and his inclusion allows them to shed salary, which is why Tampa would do this at all. He steps into Castillo’s role last year: second catcher with a lot of variance, even though he’s just 28. If he’s terrible again, Collins gets his role and we forget about him.

Ultimately, this is about replenishing the bullpen I just decimated for the Sox. Additionally, while Drake is a righthander, he’s got reverse splits and wrecked lefties last year, allowing just a .156 (!) wOBA against them in 30.1 IP, the lowest of any pitcher in the league with at least 20IP vs lefties.

On the other side, the Rays get a reliever who just needs to rediscover his control to be very effective for minimum salary, and a hurt but very talented starting pitcher in arbitration. Rodon needs a change of scenery, and he isn’t going to be making much in arb either this year or next because of that injury, and it’s very Raysesque to gamble finding that upside with their analytics while dumping salary overall. Maybe the Rays want Fulmer as well as another analytics lottery ticket, which I wouldn’t protest.

 

No. 3: Trade Micker Adolfo, Gavin Sheets, and Luis Gonzalez to the Baltimore Orioles for 1B/OF Trey Mancini. I don’t particularly want to trade away any of the Sox’ high-value prospects at the moment, because they all fit existing or near-future needs. The issue is that there isn’t much left after those guys, and DH seems the easiest hole to fill that way. Apologies to all the J.D. Martinez fans out there.

It’s a bit hard for me to tell if this is a fair deal, and you can haggle somewhat over which combination of second-tier Sox prospects you (or the O’s) would want heading to Baltimore– maybe they insist on, say, Stiever. The general idea should be clear: a masher with DH-quality defense becoming a DH and spelling Abreu or whoever’s in RF if need be.

 

SUMMARY

I didn’t want to touch either the established top prospects or the young high-upside prospects (cough cough Tatis cough), so I did my best to build this team for contention not just in 2020 but through 2022. Doing this with Cole and with the $120M cap is really not easy, and requires some very astute trading with rather specific trade partners. If you think one or more of the above trades are totally unrealistic, feel free to replace “Diaz” with “Lugo” or whatnot, or just yell at Jerry.

 

Starting Lineup

  1. Robert CF
  2. Moncada 3B
  3. Jimenez  LF
  4. Abreu 1B
  5. Nimmo LF
  6. Mancini RF
  7. Anderson SS
  8. McCann C
  9. Madrigal 2B

Bench

  • Zunino C
  • Garcia UTIL
  • Mendick INF
  • Engel OF

Rotation

  1. Gerrit Cole
  2. Lucas Giolito
  3. Michael Kopech
  4. Dylan Cease
  5. Jake Odorizzi

Bullpen

  • Diaz CL
  • Drake RHRP
  • Roe RHRP
  • Cingrani LHRP
  • Hamilton RHRP
  • Cordero RHRP
  • Herrera RHRP
  • Lopez RHRP/6th SP

Total 2020 Payroll: $114.8M

 

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yoyo

moving 10 Sox players via trade = doing Seattle proud! I commend thee.