White Sox Minor Keys: July 11, 2022

Colson Montgomery slipped into the top 100 prospect lists just last week, and now he's knocking of the door of BA's Top 50. That and more in today's @FutureSox Minor Keys. #url#

Every fresh day yields a little more good news about Colson Montgomery, and this one involves his biggest jump yet.

While Montgomery cracked Baseball America’s Top 100 list earlier this month upon graduations of previously ranked prospects, the cursory nature of the update meant he could only dip a toe into the waters at No. 99.

Now that BA officially revised its top 100 list for at the season’s halfway point, Montgomery has garnered far more consideration — 46 spots’ worth of consideration, to be specific. He now ranks No. 53, , he shot up a few tiers upon the outlet’s grand midseason revision.

Here’s the blurb:

Tools: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Speed: 50 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 55
Skinny: While Montgomery wasnt ranked among the “big four” shortstops in the 2021 high school draft class he’s been very productive over the first half of the season. Montgomery possesses plus bat-to-ball skills and approach, as well as blossoming power—his max exit velocity in 2022 is over 112 mph.

The “big four” prep shortstops comprised Marcelo Mayer (4th, Red Sox), Jordan Lawlar (6th, Diamondbacks), Brady House (11th, Nationals) and Kahlil Watson (16th, Marlins). Here’s how they stack up so far this year:

PlayerLvlPABAOBPSLGBB/KSB/CS
MayerA224.287.380.51029/6012/0
LawlarRk/A/A+237.337.435.56830/5525/5
HouseA203.278.356.37512/591/0
WatsonA252.221.274.37215/9912/0
MontgomeryA/A+262.326.431.48436/480/1

ACL White Sox 6, ACL Padres 0

  • Cam Butler went 1-for-3 with a double, walk and strikeout.
  • Luis Pineda was 2-for-4 with a homer.
  • Chase Krogman, 0-for-1 with three walks.
  • Dario Borrero, 1-for-4 with a double.
  • Victor Quezada singled twice, struck out twice and was caught stealing.
  • Alvaro Aguero went 2-for-4 with a pair of solo shots and a strikeout.
  • Manuel Veloz: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 2 K
  • Erick Bello: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K

DSL White Sox 9, DSL Cubs Blue 8

  • Guillermo Rodriguez went 1-for-3 with two walks and strikeout, and was 1-for-2 on the basepaths.
  • Erick Hernandez was 1-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts.
  • Ryan Burrowes, 1-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base.
  • Loidel Chapelli went 3-for-4 with a homer, a walk and two stolen bases.
  • Carlos Jimenez was 1-for-5.
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Jim Margalus

Writing about the White Sox for a 16th season, first here, then at South Side Sox, and now here again. Let’s talk curling.

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soxfan

So where do the “big four” sit in the latest BA rankings? Seems like Montgomery might be more on par with Mayer and Lawlar than expected and ahead of House and Watson.

(Also, seems like the BB/K and SB/CS data is swapped for House and Watson.)

knoxfire30

Colas to AA, finally!

tommytwonines

He’s probably telling everyone in Birmingham that he’s not bothering to unpack his bag.

PauliePaulie

Montgomery is a prime example of why I don’t want them using a back half of the first round pick on a college player.

soxygen

Of course, a lot of the high school guys taken at the back end of the first round are busts (never even make it to the bigs), or it takes a while if they do.

For example, at the back end of the 2016 draft the following high school guys were taken:

24th pick: Hudson Potts (formerly Hudson Sanchez) is struggling to stay above the Mendoza line in AA and is no longer a top 30 org prospect.

28th pick: Carter Kieboom has made it to the bigs but has a batting average of .207.

30th pick: Cole Ragans is in AAA and is ranked #29 in his org’s system.

It’s a bit of a crapshoot either way, and it will be fun to see which direction they choose.

Last edited 30 days ago by soxygen
soxfan

I think it’s a ceiling vs. floor argument. Impact college players are gone immediately, whereas college players still around at the end of the first round might be steady but unspectacular big leaguers. The high school players have more untapped potential (that might never be realized) but if you make enough high-risk/high-reward bets you only need a couple to pay off to make it worth your while. Conversely, you need a lot of your high-floor/low-ceiling guys to deliver in order to develop a credible 40-man roster.

soxygen

Yep, and I keep going back and forth on what the Sox should do. If they are in their window of contention right now, they will need pitching depth that can contribute sooner than later. I don’t think a college pitcher is, by definition, the wrong choice there. That said, as a team that went really college heavy for years we know how important it is to have some impact players in the pipeline, which may argue for drafting an up-the-middle high school bat.

For what it’s worth, I remember checking a couple of studies and recall that one of them concluded that picks 25-30 have generated an average career WAR of 2.3, so we should set our expectations accordingly.

Last edited 29 days ago by soxygen
Greg Nix

Montgomery is the oldest of that group, older than House and Watson by more than a year. Presumably that’s a big reason he went below them, although seems as if teams overthought it on this one.